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The Monthly Metals Index:

Aluminum prices remain elevated; steel prices cool off

October 2021

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Table of Contents
1. Introduction/Overview/Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs
2. Aluminum MMI - October 2021
3. Copper MMI - October 2021
4. Stainless MMI - October 2021
5. Raw Steels MMI - October 2021
6. Rare Earths MMI - October 2021
7. Automotive MMI - October 2021
8. Construction MMI - October 2021
9. Renewables/GOES MMI - October 2021
10. Global Precious Metals MMI - October 2021
11. A Note on MetalMiner's Price Outlooks and Benchmarking Capability

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Introduction and Overview
To help you understand month-to-month metal price trends across industries and within specific metal markets, MetalMiner
issues the Monthly Metals Index (MMI) reports on 10 subindexes:

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Aluminum
Copper
Stainless
Raw Steels
Rare Earths
Automotive
Construction
Renewables
Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel
Global Precious Metals

How MetalMiner Shapes the MMI Reports
Many indexes bear little resemblance to what you actually pay for the range of metals you buy. MetalMiner uses the following

guidelines to ensure index relevance:
1. Each index represents a basket of metals or raw materials (depending on the category, e.g. coking coal, scrap and iron
ore for steel prices) that impact the cost structure for that particular metal market.
2. The inputs reflect the global market for that commodity, with the goal of more accurately representing underlying global
price trends.
3. We’ve added three key industry verticals — Automotive, Construction and Renewables — that impact multiple metal
markets, as metal prices often depend upon the underlying demand for various industries (e.g. steel prices relate to
construction industry activity).
How You Can Use the Monthly MMI
Use this report as an economic indicator, much like the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) or the BLS Producer Price
Index (PPI), for forecasting, predictive analytics and tracking which commodities have the greatest volatility.



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4 of 16

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Want to improve purchase timing and develop price risk mitigation strategies? Get access to MetalMiner’s monthly metals price
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• Nickel
It’s the most accurate forecast in the business, and here’s why: MetalMiner does NOT predict the future.
Instead, MetalMiner analysts constantly monitor metals and influencing markets, interpret movement and issue buying
recommendations throughout the year. After all, for purchasing organizations, trying to forecast the future is not as important
as knowing when and how to react.
Benefit from the metal buying strategies MetalMiner identifies throughout the year — take a look at MetalMiner’s
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5 of 16

Executive Commentary on This Month’s MMIs
One-Year MMI Trends

MMI Index Value (Jan. 2012 baseline =100)

Renewables*
Automotive
Global Precious Metals
Aluminum
Construction
Raw Steels*
Copper
Stainless Steel


Rare Earths

Oct Nov
2020

Dec

MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct
2021


*Renewables and Raw Steels MMIs restated for May to map the underlying markets more effectively.

After the September MMI series saw three of 10 indexes increase, four increased for the
October MMI.
The MMIs for Aluminum, Renewables, GOES and Rare Earths posted gains this month.
Although some other metals traded sideways or down, aluminum continued to power ahead
near record highs. Between high prices and production cuts in China, some aluminum
producers have opted to increase capacity. Alcoa, for example, announced plans to restart the
Alumar aluminum smelter in Brazil. The smelter, in which Alcoa has a 60% stake, had been fully
curtailed since 2015.
However, the outlook for other metals was not as ascendant.
Copper, for example, took a step back, as the Fed indicated it could soon scale back its
program of asset purchases (which would strengthen the U.S. dollar). Furthermore, demand
concerns from China — including from debt struggles among some of its largest property
developers, like Evergrande) — are also weighing on copper.
Meanwhile, steel prices showed signs of slowing down. However, Q4 seasonal lulls for steel
prices are not unexpected. Meanwhile, raw materials prices continue to rise, impacting metals
producers. Seaborne metallurgical coal prices, for example, are at an all-time high.
"Supply tightness came partly as a result of China’s climate targets, which allowed coal
inventories to dwindle," Maria Rosa Gobitz explained in this month's Raw Steels MMI.
"Additionally, China stopped imports of Australian coal amid a diplomatic row. This import shift
shocked coal supply chains, as new buyers set their eyes on Australia and China built new
relationships with Latin American, African and European suppliers."
Meanwhile, speaking of disrupted supply chains, U.S. auto sales slumped in Q3, as the
ongoing semiconductor shortage continues to impact automotive operations.
— Lisa Reisman, Executive Editor, MetalMiner


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6 of 16

Monthly Aluminum MMI Rises 3.1%
Jan 2012 Baseline =100

Aluminum
MMI

Index Value

September to
October
Up 3.1%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Lower Your
Aluminum Spend

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The Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) went up by 3.1% this month, as all forms of
aluminum jumped this month.

Primary capacity interest
Historically high prices, increasing demand and production cuts in China have opened a
window of opportunity for aluminum producers.
Alcoa announced it is restarting the Alumar aluminum smelter in Sao Luis, Brazil. Alcoa
owns 60% of the smelter, while South32 owns 40%. Operations were suspended in 2015, as
aluminum prices declined. Its restart could bring a total operating capacity of 447,000 metric
tons, with the first molten metal expected in the second quarter of 2022.
With this planned restart, Alcoa will have approximately 80% of its 2.99 million metric tons of
global aluminum smelting capacity in operation.
Moreover, South32 announced its intention to exercise its pre-emptive rights to acquire up to
an additional 25% shareholding and related rights in Mozal Aluminium from Mitsubishi. At the
end of the transaction, South32 would have ownership of up to 72.1% of the smelter, located
in Maputo, Mozambique. The smelter has a total operating capacity of approximately 580,000
metric tons.
Mill capacity continues to grow
Production facilities and rolling mills continue to open amid high prices.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Aluminum MMI collects and weights 12 global aluminum price points to provide a unique
view into aluminum price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Aluminum
MMI, how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at:
info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.


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7 of 16

Monthly Copper MMI Falls by 1.7%
Jan 2012 Baseline = 100


Copper
MMI

Index Value

September to
October
Down 1.7%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2021
2020
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell 1.7%, as the copper demand picture could be
set to weaken and the LME three-month and China primary cash prices fell month over month.
The Fed effect and Congress delays
As the Federal Reserve prepares to scale down its pandemic strategy, copper prices dropped.
The Fed reported it would hike rates and pare back the asset purchase program (i.e.,
quantitative easing).
This news benefited the U.S. dollar, which increased over the past month. This is particularly
important to copper. The U.S. dollar and commodities have historically moved in a perfect
inverse relationship.
Moreover, Congress’ decisions — or lack of them — could cause market turmoil and
impact copper prices. The bipartisan infrastructure deal remains delayed in the House of
Representatives. Congress has not taken action on increasing the debt ceiling, adding to the
potential market turmoil, though Republicans have agreed to a short-term debt ceiling cover
into December.

China looming over prices
Meanwhile, the second-largest economy in the world continues to show signs of volatility.
China is the biggest consumer and producer of refined copper. [Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Copper MMI collects and weights 12 global copper metal price points to provide a unique
view into copper price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the Copper MMI,
how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a note at: info (at)
agmetalminer (dot) com.


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8 of 16

Monthly Stainless MMI Drops 1.9%
Jan 2012 Baseline =100

Stainless
MMI

Index Value

September to
October
Down 1.9%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.


Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Lower Your
Stainless Spend

The Stainless Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell by 1.9% for this month’s reading.
Base price and surcharge increases
North American Stainless (NAS) increased 304, 304L and 316L effective Oct. 1 by reducing the
discount by two points. For 304, this is an increase of approximately $0.0350/lb.
NAS increased 430 and other 200 and 300 series by reducing the discount by three points.
Non-430 ferritics will increase by $0.04/lb, which makes for a total increase in 2021 of $0.31/lb.

Know When to Buy
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Furthermore, alloy surcharges are increasing in October. NAS’ October alloy surcharge for 304
is $1.0641/lb, a decrease of $0.0038/lb compared to September.
U.S. imports
U.S. stainless steel imports decreased by 6.7% from a value of $343.6 million to $320.5 million,
according to US Census Bureau data from July to August.
While most forms of stainless steel imports declined, wire rods imports nearly doubled. Imports
jumped by 57.6% to a value of $4.4 million during the same period.
Stainless steel wire rod is mostly used to manufacture stainless steel wire, which has a wide
range of usage due to its non-corrosive attribute. Stainless steel wire is used in household
appliances in the form of springs and meshes. It is similarly used in food processing products,
automobile, aerospace and medical devices.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Stainless MMI collects and weights 12 global stainless and nickel price points to provide

a unique view into stainless price trends over a 30-day period. For more information on the
Stainless MMI, how it's calculated or how your company can use the index, please drop us a
note at: info (at) agmetalminer (dot) com.


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9 of 16

Monthly Raw Steels MMI Falls 2.4%
Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

Raw Steels
MMI

Index Value

September to
October
Down 2.4%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndX.
The Raw Steels Monthly Metals Index (MMI) dropped by 2.4%, as most forms of steel around
the world declined, despite coking coal prices being at all-time highs.
Global steel production

According to the World Steel Association, global steel production declined for the fourth
consecutive month in August.
The 64 reporting countries to World Steel produced a total of 156.8 million tons (5.06 million
tons per day) for August, compared to 171.3 million tons (5.71 million tons per day) in April,
which was the highest monthly production of the year on a tons-per-day basis.
China continues as the world’s top producer by eight times more than the second-largest
producer, India. Chinese production during August reached 83.2 million tons (2.68 million tons
per day), over 50% of global production.
China, however, posted a fourth consecutive month of production declines on a tons-per-day
basis. Since April, China’s daily steel production fell by 17.8%.
U.S. imports
Currently, the E.U. and U.S. continue to negotiate the replacement of the U.S.’s Section 232
import duties. A tariff-rate quota, similar to the existing E.U. safeguard, would mean duty-free
allocation would be allowed, along with taxes payable once the volume has been reached.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Raw Steels MMI collects and weights 13 global steel and raw material price points to
provide a unique view into global steel price trends over a 30-day period. For more information
on the Raw Steels MMI, please drop us a note at:


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10 of 16

Monthly Rare Earths MMI Rises by 11.6%
Jan 2012 Baseline =100

Rare Earths
MMI


Index Value

September to
October
Up 11.6%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. MetalMiner.com

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Rare Earths Monthly Metals Index (MMI) bounced back, rising by 11.6% this month.
GM, GE Renewable Energy aim to develop rare earths supply chain
Automaker General Motors and GE Renewable Energy have signed a memorandum of
understanding through which they will seek to develop a supply chain for rare earths and other
materials needed for electric vehicles and renewable energy.
The parties will “evaluate opportunities to improve supplies of heavy and light rare earth
materials and magnets, copper and electrical steel used for manufacturing of electric vehicles
and renewable energy equipment,” GM said earlier this month.
Initially, they will focus on a Europe- and North America-based supply chain for vertically
integrated magnet manufacturing.
“A secure, sustainable and resilient local supply chain for electric vehicle materials is critical to
the execution of GM’s vision of an all-electric future,” said Shilpan Amin, GM vice president for
Global Purchasing and Supply Chain. “Motors are one of the most important components of our
Ultium Platform, and the heavy and light rare earth materials are an essential ingredient in our
motor magnets. The combined scale of GM and GE will enable us to unlock the potential for
securing low-carbon footprint, ESG-friendly, secure and cost competitive materials.”
Furthermore, the parties will evaluate “potential cooperation to support the development of new

technologies and processes for both automotive and renewable power generation applications.”
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Rare Earths MMI collects and weights 14 global rare earth metal price points to provide a
unique view into rare earth metal price trends over a 30-day period.


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11 of 16

Monthly Automotive MMI Holds Steady
Jan 2012 Baseline =100

Automotive
MMI

Index Value

September to
October
Flat

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Automotive Monthly Metals Index (MMI) held flat for this month’s reading, as U.S. auto

sales slumped in Q3.
US auto sales slip in Q3
General Motors reported its third-quarter sales fell from 665,192 vehicles in Q3 2020 to 446,997
vehicles in Q3 2021, a 32.8% drop.
The automaker cited semiconductor supply chain disruptions and “historically low inventories.”
“During the quarter, GM provided an update for investors that its wholesale volumes in North
America in the second half of 2021 would be down about 200,000 units from the first half,
largely because of supply chain disruptions in Malaysia caused by COVID-19, with most of the
impact occurring during the third quarter,” the automaker said. “GM’s financial outlook is still
expected to be within the calendar year guidance range previously provided as the company
continues to develop solutions to mitigate the impacts of the semiconductor shortage and
Chevrolet Bolt EV recall.”
Meanwhile, Ford reported total sales in the U.S. fell 17.7% in September. Unlike its truck and
car segments, Ford SUV sales jumped by 3.4%.
“August improvements in production and inventory paid off in September, with Ford’s retail
sales up 34.3 percent over the previous month, boosting Ford’s retail share for the month to an
estimated 12.9 percent – up 3.8 percentage points over August,” Ford said.
Fiat Chrysler reported sales fell by 19% to 410,917 in Q3 2021.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Automotive MMI collects and weights 7 metal price points used in automotive production to
provide a unique view into automotive metal trends over a 30-day period.


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12 of 16

Monthly Construction MMI Drops 1.6%


Index Value

Jan 2012 Baseline =100

Construction
MMI

September to
October
Down 1.6%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021

MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.
The Construction Monthly Metals Index (MMI) fell for this month’s value, as U.S. construction
spending came in virtually unchanged from the previous month.
US construction spending
U.S. construction spending in August reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,584.1
billion, up minimally from the revised July estimate of $1,584.0 billion, the Census Bureau
reported.
Meanwhile, the August rate increased by 8.9% from August 2020.
During the first eight months of 2021, construction spending totaled $1,034.5 billion. The yearto-date total marked a 7.0% year-over-year increase.
Private construction spending reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,242.2 billion,
or down 0.1% from July. Residential construction rose 0.4% to $786.6 billion. Nonresidential
construction fell 1.0% to $455.6 billion in August.
Public construction spending reached a rate of $341.9 billion, up 0.5%. Educational
construction rose 1.1% to $79.8 billion. Highway construction rose 1.6% to $98.3 billion.

ABI continues to show growth
Meanwhile, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), released monthly by the American Institute of
Architects, continued its strong run of growth.
The August ABI checked in at 55.6, up from 54.6 the previous month. However, the design
contracts index fell to 56.6 from 58.0 the previous month. [Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Construction MMI collects and weights 9 metal price points used within the construction
industry to provide a unique view into construction industry price trends over a 30-day period.


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13 of 16

Monthly Renewables MMI Picks up 0.8%
Jan 2012 Baseline = 100

Renewables
MMI

Index Value

September to
October
Up 0.8%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved. MetalMiner.com


Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

*Index had been recalibrated in May 2017 to better account for cobalt price fluctuations

The Renewables Monthly Metals Index (MMI) ticked up slightly for this month’s value.
(Editor’s note: This report also includes the MMI for grain-oriented electrical steel, or GOES.)
Renewables make progress, but coal, oil saw 2021 comeback, IEA says
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released its 386-page World Energy Outlook
2021 report, in which it notes positive trends in renewable energy but setbacks in the form of
recovering coal and oil use in 2021.
“The rapid but uneven economic recovery from last year’s Covid-induced recession is putting
major strains on parts of today’s energy system, sparking sharp price rises in natural gas, coal
and electricity markets,” the IEA reported. “For all the advances being made by renewables and
electric mobility, 2021 is seeing a large rebound in coal and oil use. Largely for this reason, it is
also seeing the second-largest annual increase in CO2 emissions in history.”
The IEA emphasized significant further investment is needed to reach the 1.5 degree
stabilization goal laid out in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario released in May 2021.
The IEA said that transition requires “a surge in annual investment in clean energy projects and
infrastructure to nearly USD 4 trillion” by 2030.
In many renewables applications, cost is a major obstacle, particularly for critical minerals or
metals.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE (INCLUDING GOES ANALYSIS), MORE CHARTS
AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Renewables MMI collects and weights 8 metal price points over a 30-day period.


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14 of 16

Monthly Global Precious MMI Falls 12.9%
Jan 2012 Baseline =100

Global Precious
Metals MMI

Index Value

September to
October
Down 12.9%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2020
2021
MetalMiner®. All rights reserved.

Source: MetalMiner IndXSM.

Lower Your
Price Risk

The Global Precious Monthly Metals Index (MMI) lost ground this month, dropping by 12.9%
as the gold price declined and the dollar strengthened last month.
Gold slides, dollar gains
The U.S. gold bullion price fell in September, dropping from $1,814 per ounce as of Sept. 1 to
$1,757 on Oct. 1, a 3.1% drop.
Meanwhile, gold historically correlates inversely with the U.S. dollar. Unsurprisingly, the U.S.

dollar showed strength in September.

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Last month, the Federal Reserve indicated it could soon finally begin tapering asset purchases,
which is supportive for the dollar.
After closing Sept. 1 at 92.45, the U.S. dollar index closed Oct. 1 at 94.03.
Fed could begin tapering
As mentioned, the Federal Reserve last month indicated it could be set to begin tapering asset
purchases.
Last December, the Fed said it would “increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least
$80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per
month.” That would continue until the Fed deemed “substantial further progress” had been
made toward the goals of maximum employment and price stability.
In the Fed’s estimation, progress has been made toward those goals.
[Continued...]
CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ARTICLE, MORE CHARTS AND ALL GLOBAL PRICES.
The Global Precious Metals MMI® collects and weights 14 global precious metal price points to
provide a unique view into precious metal price trends over a 30-day period.


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15 of 16

Compare Your Quotes to the Market
BASIC ANALYSIS RESULTS
MATERIAL:


304 2B Coil/0.038-0.060 mm

PRICE:

$1.43 on 01/01/2018 equates to a normalized price
of $1.57 on 08/29/2018

MATCHING:

896

% PAYING MORE:

45.41%

UNIQUE BUYERS:

747

% PAYING SAME:

12.34%

% PAYING LESS:

42.25%

MEDIAN:

$1.57/lb


Get a price comparison for all metals you buy. Inquire Now

About MetalMiner

Sourcing & Trading Intelligence for Global Metals Markets

MetalMiner is North America’s largest metals information site. This go-to resource for metal-buying

organizations identifies metal market trends and price direction, provides daily metal market analysis
and commentary, and offers insight and strategies to mitigate risk and reduce costs. MetalMiner is
operated under management company Azul Partners Inc.


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