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The gidi: Van de - Svr kien <b>Tap chl Cdng sdn </b>

<i>'t'^-iii , A:: : : . </i>

<b>CUC DIEN THE GlOl SAU KHUNG HOANG </b>

<b>KINH TE • TAI CHJNH </b>

D O S O N HAI *

<i>Susup do cua ngdn hdng Lehman Brothers (thdng 9-2008) sau 158 ndm </i>
<i>tdn tqi da md dudng cho con bdo tdi chinh tren phqm vi todn cdu. Tinh den </i>
<i>thdng 10-2009 dd cd tdi hon 100 tap dodn vd cdng ty (cd trong Hnh vuc tdi </i>
<i>chinh ldn cdng nghiep) tuyen bd phd san, trong dd cd nhiing tap dodn khdng </i>
<i>Id cua My nhu Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, CIT, General Motors v.v.. O </i>
<i>vdo vi tri "tdm bdo", My chiu tdn thdt ndng ne nhdt. Susuy thodi cua nen </i>
<i>kinh te sd 1 the gidi dd khien hdu het cdc qudc gia rai vdo vdng xody khung </i>

<i>^ A</i> 9

<i>hodng. Con lde tdi chinh da ldm the gidi cd nhiing thay ddi mqnh me trong </i>
<i>ndm 2009. Hien tqi, chua the khdng dinh ddy du ve miic dp thiet hqi md </i>
<i>cuoc khung hodng ndy se gdy ra. Tuy nhien, quan trpng hon cd Id tdt cd </i>
<i>nhdng bien ddi trong thdi gian qua se dua the gidi ve ddu? Cue dien the </i>
<i>gidi se bien ddi ra sao? </i>

The gidi truwc nam 2008

Sy thay ddi cda the gidi ngay bdm nay
khdng don gian la do con bao tai chinh gay ra
ma dd chinh la be qua tat yeu cda ea mdt qua
trinh van ddng, it nblt la tu diu thap nien 90

cda the ky XX. Ke tu sau khi Chiln tranh lanh
ket thdc, chdng ta da chdng kien hai lan thay ddi
ldn cua cyc dien the gidi.

Cyc dien thu nhat ed the tinh tu sau sy sup dd
cda Lien Xd den trudc khi xay ra su kien ngay
11-9-2001. Budc ra khdi Chiln tranh lanh vdi uu
the tuyet ddi trong so sanh vdi phan cdn lai cda
the gidi, nhung My da khdng tao ra dugc mdt
cue dien "don cyc" (nhu Ph.Phu-cu-y-a-ma da
tdng dy bao trong cudn saeh ndi tieng dugc xult
ban vao nam 1992, cudn "The End of History
and the Last Man") nhu mong mudn. Cd thi coi
day la giai doan chuyen ddi, khi blu hit cac
qudc gia, kl ca sieu cudng duy nblt la My, diu

cdn dang choang nggp bdi nhiing thay ddi cua
the gidi thdi hau Chien tranh lanh, bdi hang loat
van de, dae biet la van de phat trien dat nudc.
Trong bdi canh dd, viec cac qudc gia uu tien cho
ddi thoai, hgp tac nham chan hung nen kinh te la
sy lya chgn tat yeu. Chinh vi the, ngay ea My vdi
tham vgng lanh dao the gidi thi ehinh quyen
B.Clin-ton, chu yeu, eiing ehi thyc hien dugc
mdt niia khau hieu ma hg dua ra: "Da phuang
khi can thiet, don phuong khi cd the". Khuynh
hudng eoi trgng cac boat ddng da phuong cua
nhieu nudc da tao nen mdt cue dien "da trang
tam, nhieu tang nac". Co cau "mdt sieu - nhieu
cudng" chd yeu phan anh thuc trang ve so sanh

lyc lugng giira My vdi cac cudng qudc cdn lai,
hon la ve he thdng luat choi ma "hgp tac, lien ket
de phat trien" chiem uu the ndi trdi.

<i>'• TS, Hpc vien Ngoai giao </i>

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The gioi: Va^n dd - Su kien <b>T a p chl C d n g s d n </b>

Sy kien ngay 11-9-2001 da md ra cue dien
thu hai thdi ban Chien tranh lanh. Khi lye lugng
An Ke-da tan cdng vao nudc My cd le khdng
ngd rang hg da kich boat vao tham vgng ba
quyen cda nude My ma ngay sau khi Lien Xd
sup do, do nhieu ly do da bi ehe lap trong sudt
hai nhiem ky cua B.Clin-ton. Sy xuat hien hilm
hga "khung bd qude te" da thuc day Oa-sinh-ton
tir bd thai do kiem che d giai doan trade de nd
lyc kien tao ra mdt lien minh nham khang dinh
vai trd thu linh the gidi. Chinh quyen Bu-sa da
bit dau cdng cude bien nhung phdng doan ve
mgt the gidi mdt eye cua My trong giai doan
ttudc trd thanh hien thyc chi 12 gid ddng hd sau
cac vu tan edng ngay 11-9*'\ Ngudi ta bat dau ta
than ve nhirng hanh ddng ed tinh hieu chien,
ngao man, phdt Id eac chuan myc phap ly cda
"sieu cudng don ddc" My d khap mgi noi. Tinh
don phuong nghiem trgng nhat cda chinh quyen
Bu-so ddi vdi edng ddng qudc te chinh la quyet
dinh tan cdng xam luge I-rac (cude chien tranh
ma My tiln hanh d Ap-ga-ni-xtan it bi cdng luan

soi xet bdi nd xay ra ngay sau sy kien ngay
11-9 va nhung hanh vi cyc doan cua chinh quyen
Ta-h-ban). Cude chiln da md dudng eho viee
cdng khai hgc thuylt Bu-so (cdn ggi la hgc
thuylt "Danh ddn phu diu"). Trong sudt gan hai
nhiem ky eua minh, chinh quyen Bu-so vdi
tuyen bd "Ai khdng di vdi ta la chdng ta" da
ludn dat thi gidi trong mdt tinh trang cang thang
bdi nhung ndi lo vl sy ap dat thudng trye den tu
phia nude My.

Mgt cau hdi dugc dat ra la: Tai sao My lai cd
the thilt lap dugc uu thi (dieu le ra phai cd dugc
dudi thdi Tdng thdng B.Clin-ton) tren tradng
qudc te? Bdi le, ngay sau khi nham chuc, ehinh
quyen Bu-so da phai ddi mat vdi con sdng suy
thoai diu tien (Quy III-2001, cac chuyen gia
kinh te edng bd, nude My bat dau roi vao tinh
nang suy thoai). Nhung sy kien tiep ndi nhau tir
sau cude gap thugng dinh thien nien ky 2000 cd
the gidp dua ra mdt sd ly giai sau:

<i>Thu nhdt, sy kien ngay 11-9 ehi td dam them </i>

muc do nguy hai cua mgt loat van de ed tinh
toan cau nhu khung bd qudc te, nan dieh SARC,
<b>H5N1, sdng than Tsunami v.v.. Ben canh vln dl </b>

phat trien vii khi bat nhan cua CHDCND Trieu
Tien hay chuong trinh phat trien hat nhan cua

I-ran, tiep tuc nd ra nhimg xung dot vu trang
dam mau d Trang Ddng (tham chi la giira ndi bd
ngudi Pa-le-xtin, giira cac lyc lugng Pha-ta va
Ha-mat!), d I-rae, Ap-ga-ni-xtan v.v.. Qua trinh
giai quyet nhihig van de nay se la co hdi de cho
nhihig nudc cd nang lyc, trade het la My vdi tu
each cda mdt sieu cudng duy nhat, the hien vai
trd eda hg. Chinh quyen Bu-so da tan dung tdi
da CO hdi ma sy kien ngay 11 -9 dem lai de khang
dinh vai trd eda mdt "ba quyen My".

<i>Thu hai, sy yeu kem cua cac co che qudc te, </i>

nhung dia chi cd the han che tham vgng cua My.
Hau het trong sd nay nhu Lien hgp qudc, NATO,
IMF, WB va ca WTO da hinh thanh tir trong
Chien tranh lanh, do vay, d nhirng muc do khac
nhau deu chiu anh hirdng cda My. Ban than cac
CO che nay cung dang td ra khdng du nang lyc de
giai quyet cac van de. Chang ban nhu tradng hgp
cda Co quan Nang lugng nguyen tir qudc te
(IAEA), nhung quyet dinh cda co quan nay hau
nhu ching dua den mdt tac dung huu ich nao
trong vln de hat nhan tren ban dao Trieu Tien.
Tham chi. My cdn lgi dung td chuc nay de cd
dugc gily phep cho nhung boat ddng xam luge.

<i>Thu ba, vi nhung tinh loan rieng ma muc do </i>

phan iing cda mdi nude rat khac nhau trade

nhimg hanh ddng don phuong cua My. Nhin
chung, thai do cda blu hit cac nude, trudc bet
cda cac nudc ldn, la e de, ngai xung dot vdi My
hoac nlu cd thi chi dimg lai d muc do gay sy chu
vdi chinh quyin Bu-so. Khi My phat ddng cugc
chiln tranh xam luge I-rIc, da khdng cd mdt
phien hgp khan clp nao cua Hdi ddng Bao an
Lien hgp qudc, cho du mdt sd nude diu len an
hanh ddng cda My vi pham Hiln chuong Lien
hgp qudc. Dudng nhu hg da "quen" mil quyen
phu quylt (Veto) ma hg dang sd hiru vdi tu each
la thanh vien thudng trye cua co quan an ninh
chuyen trach tdi cao eua Lien hgp qudc! Sy phan

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The gidi: Van de - Svr kien <b>Tap chl Cdng sdn </b>

khang cua cac nudc nhd, trong hau het cac
trudng hgp, deu khdng dd sue ran de hay ngan
chan chinh sach hilu chien cua My. Cac nudc bi
huge phai lya chgn giu-a cac van de lien quan den
lgi ich dan tdc nhu phat triln kinh te hay chdng
khdng bd qudc te vdi viec chdng lai My. Sue
manh cua My, dac biet la uu the ve kinh te, da
cd tac ddng manh len cac quyet sach cda cac
qudc gia.

Sy tuong tac lgi ich giua cac ben da giup cho
viec hinh thanh mdt cue dien "tuong ddi gidng"
vdi md hinh "don cyc" - xin nhan manh chi la
"tuong ddi gidng". Bdi le, trong qua trinh thuc

thi ba quyen, ban than My cung phai trdng cay
rat nhieu vao sy trg gidp cda cac nude khac, nhat
la trong cude chien chdng khdng bd qude te, van
de dugc chinh phd Bu-so uu tien hang dau. Ndi
each khac, gia sir tdn tai cyc dien don cyc, thi
vdi tinh chat tuy thudc lan nhau ngay cang eao
trong thdi dai toan cau hda, cue dien nay chac
chan chi ed the tdn tai trong mdt thdi gian het
sue ngan ngdi va rat de bi pha vd. Cude khdng
hoang tai chinh tren quy md toan cau nd ra da
chung minh dieu dd.

Cue dien the gioi mdi

Cude khung hoang tai chinh la he qua cda
qua trinh quan ly yeu kem cda My trong linh vyc
nay, nhung neu xet rdng ra thi day cd le cung la
he qua tat yeu cda nhirng cd gang thiet lap mdt
the gidi don cyc cua chinh quyen Bu-so. Mdt lan
sdng chdng ddi My da xuat hien tir nhieu phia,
nhieu ddi tugng va trong nhieu ITnh vyc, trade
het trong linh vyc kinh te, bdi le khdng nudc nao
de dang chiu sy ap dat cda nudc khae. Hgc
thuyet eda Bu-so thyc sy nhu mdt ldi myen
chien vdi bat ky qudc gia nao cd chinh sach thu
dich vdi My. Dieu nay da lam cho ca nhirng
ddng minh trang thanh nhat eua My cung phai
canh giac de pbdng^^'. Nhung ran nut trong quan
he giua My vdi phan cdn lai cda the gidi ngay
cang sau sac. Luan diem cda P.Ken-no-dy vl

"tinh hdng bach qua cang" va he qua tat yeu la
<i>nudc My se suy tan bdi viec vdi tay qua xa ^^^ </i>
dang dan ung nghiem.

Mat khae, ehinh chinh sach don phuang,
edng nhac cda chinh quyen Bu-so, d muc do nao
dd, lai thdc day sy lien ket giiia cac nudc. Y
tudng thanh lap Cdng ddng Ddng A da ra ddi va
cd nhirng budc tien dang ke nham hien thyc hda
trong bdi canh dd. Sy xich lai gan nhau hon giira
Nga, An Dd va Trang Qudc nhu mdt he qua tat
yeu tnrdc chinh sach don phuang cda My. Trong
mdt sd tnrdng hgp, chinh sach nay cdn trdi huge
chinh My. Vi du nhu trong cude chien tranh giira
Nga va Gra-di-a, vi van de Nam 6-xe-ti-a, My
da khdng the cd dugc phan iing kha hon ngoai sy
chap nhan hanh ddng cda Nga nhu la mdt sy da
rdi.

Con bao tai chinh da cudn di mgi nd luc xay
dap mdt the gidi don cyc va tham chi ca nhung
ngudi da cd xdy cho nd. That bai eua Dang Cdng
hda trong cude bau cu thang 11-2008 dudng nhu
da dugc tien lieu. Sue tan pha cda cude khung
hoang da de dga nghiem trgng den nhirng toan
tinh lgi ich ca le, dac biet la tham vgng ba quyen.
Nen kinh te eua My bi thiet hai nghiem trgng
(ngay 12-11-2009, Bd Tai chinh My cdng bd
trong nam tai khda 2009, My da tham hut ngan
sach la 1.420 ti USD - muc cao nhat trong 54

nam qua, tuong dirong 9,9% GDP; ty le that
nghiep dat 10,2% - muc cao nhat trong vdng 26
nam qua)*'^\ va vi the eae nen kinh te khac cung
chiu nhirng tdn that khdng nhd. Bdi le, chdng ta
dang sdng trong bdi canh toan cau hda, trong
mdi trudng ma sy tuy thudc lan nhau giira eac
chu the ngay cang trd nen khang khit. Trong bao
td tai chinh, mdi thay xuat hien nhirng hien
tugng mdi:

<i>Thu nhdt, nhung thay ddi tu nude My. Chi </i>

trong vdng chua day mdt nam sau khi nham
chuc, vi tdng thdng tbu 44 cda Hoa Ky da tao ra
mdt bd mat mdi cho dat nudc. Ngirdi ta khdng
cdn nhan ra mdt nudc My ludn cd thai do ngang

<i>(2) Howard M: What Friend Are For?, The National </i>
Interest, Fall 2002, tr 8

<i>(3) P.Kennedy; Hung thinh vd suy vong ciia cdc cudng </i>
<i>quo'c, Nxb Thong tin ly luan. Ha Npi, 1992,.tr 197 </i>

(4) ngay 09-11-2009

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The gidi: V i n de - Su kien <b>T a p chl C d n g s d n </b>

nguge, don phuong din do hilu chiln nhu thdi
Bu-so. Thay vao dd la mdt e-kip ludn ggi mdi
ddi thoai vdi phan cdn lai cda the gidi, kl ca vdi

nhirng qudc gia bi chinh quyen tiln nhiem het
vao "Trac ma quy". Tren thyc tl, kit qua dat
dugc chua that nhieu, nhung ed le ciing khiln
blu khdng khi cang thing cua thi gidi giam di
dang ke. Sy dot pha theo hudng hda diu eua
chinh quyen 0-ba-ma trong eac vln de qude tl
da dugc cdng ddng qudc te ghi nhan thdng qua
viee trao giai thudng Nobel vi hda binh cho vi
Tdng thdng da mau dau tien cda nudc My.

<i>Thu hai, sy thay ddi trong mdi quan he giira </i>

cac cudng qudc. Nhirng cugc gap giira My vdi
cac nudc EU, Nga, Nhat Ban, Trang Qudc cho
thay, d mdt muc do nhit dinh, giira hg da dat
dugc thda hiep trong nhung ITnh vyc quan trgng
nhu tai chinh, hat nhan v.v.. Vi du diln hinh la
viec chinh quyen 0-ba-ma tuyen bd don phuong
huy bd chuong trinh la chan ten lua d chau Au,
mgt chuong trinh gay nhieu can trd trong quan
he giira My va Nga thdi chinh quyen Bu-so. Nhu
vay la da cd sy chap nhan chia se quyen lyc giira
My vdi cac cudng qudc.

<i>Thuba, sy thay ddi trong quan he Bac - Nam. </i>

Cugc gap G20 tai Luan-ddn (thang 4-2009) cho
thay cac nude edng nghiep phat trien da cd
nhirng suy nghi lai ve vai trd cua cac nudc dang
phat triln. Kit qua cda cugc gap thugng dinh

G20 cdn cho thay khdng chi don thuan la viec
tang kinh phi hd trg cho cac nen kinh te kem
phat trien hay la sy ghi nhan ve vai trd quan
trgng eda nhdm nudc G hon 100 (ten ggi hien
nay eua G77 - nhdm cac qudc gia dang phat
triln). Dilm mdi d day la xu hudng chia se
quyin lye giua nhdm giau va nhdm ngheo trong
linh vyc kinh tl. Ngay sau khi Chiln ttanh lanh
kit thuc, vai trd cua cac nudc vu-a va nhd da tang
len dang kl nhung chu ylu trong Hnh vyc chinh
tri, an ninh. Thit bai trong cac vdng dam phan
U-ra-goay va Dd-ha giira cac nudc phuong Bac
giau cd va phuong Nam ngheo ddi cho thay
rieng trong ITnh vyc kinh tl, cac nudc dang phat
trien vln chi cd duge mdt vi tri kha khiem tdn,
mdt dilu ching hgp ly chut nao trong bdi canh
toan cau hda.

Lieu nhiing thay ddi tren day da khien cue
dien cii thay ddi chua? Bdi le, chdng ta chua
thay dugc nhung bien ddi manh me tren ca
phuong dien so sanh lyc lugng lan he thdng "luat
chai" qudc te. Khdng it ngudi van cdn hoai nghi
ve tam anh hudng ciing nliu tinh ben virng cua
nhung thay ddi tren, trade het la chinh sach ddi
ngoai cda My. Song, cd the nhan dinh rang,
nhung thay ddi tren, my mdi chi la budc dau va
cd tinh hien tugng don le nhung lai het siic quan
trgng va cd tae ddng manh tdi muc lam thay ddi
cue dien eu. Dieu nay ed the ly giai bdi nhirng ly

do sau: 1- Sy thay ddi xuat phat tu My, hat nhan
cua cue dien cu. Chinh sach ddi ngoai cua chinh
quyen 0-ba-ma da cd nhimg thay ddi cd tinh
budc ngoat so vdi chinh sach cua Bu-so; 2- Quy
md rdng ldn cua sy thay ddi trong each ung xu
vdi cac van de qudc te ndng bdng, trudc bet la
nhung van de trong ITnh vyc kinh te - thuong
mai. Khung hoang tai chinh da lan rdng tren
pham vi loan cau thi duong nhien anh hudng cua
nd eiing se khdng ngoai tru bat cu nudc nao, nhat
la trong mdi tnrdng loan cau hda. He qua tat yeu
cua qua trinh loan cau hda la sy suy giam cua bat
cu mdt loai hinh ddc quyen nao; 3- Nguyen nhan
chinh dan den nhung thay ddi tren la cac van de
kinh te, nhirng van de cd tinh chat co sd nen
tang; 4- Khung hoang tai chinh thuc day nhanh
hon qua trinh ndi len cua nhirng the lyc mdi, ca
nha nude lan phi nha nudc. Khdng mdt the lyc
nao ngan can dugc sy ndi len cua nhirng the lyc
nay. Khi khung hoang qua di, se cd mdt lugng
tac nhan ldn chua tiing cd cd kha nang su dung
sy anh hudng trong khu vyc hoac tren toan
cau*^\

Tdm lai, cue dien the gidi cu dang thay ddi ve
chat. Vay thi cyc dien mdi se cd dien mao ra
sao? Tir nhimg thay ddi tren day, chung ta cd the
rdt ra hai dac diem chinh cua cue dien the gidi
mdi nhu sau:

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The gidi: Van de - Srr kien <b>Tap chl Cdng sdn </b>

Xet ve so sanh lyc lugng, sy thay ddi la
khdng ldn so vdi cue dien eu. Bdi le, mac du
chiu nhieu tdn that nhat tu con bao tai chinh, va
vi the khoang each giua My va cac cudng qudc
khac, dac biet la vdi Trang Qudc, bi thu hep
dang ke, nhung My ciing van tiep mc giir vai trd
<i>"dau tau" ve nhieu mat ^^\ Sy thay ddi trong cue </i>
dien mdi nay la nhan thuc cua cae nudc, trudc
het la My, ve so sanh lyc lugng. Khac vdi thdi
Bu-so, chinh quyen 0-ba-ma khdng cho rang
nudc My la vugt trdi tdi muc khdng them dem
xia gi tdi cac nudc khac. Trong qua trinh khac
phuc khdng hoang, Trang Qudc, Nga cung
khdng cdn qua e ngai My nua, bdi hg nhan thuc
dugc vai trd mdi cda minh *^\ Con bao tai chinh
ciing chi ra nhirng yeu kem cda cac co che tai
chinh qudc tl nhu IMF, WB. Sy ra ddi cda G20
cd the md dudng eho viec xuat hien nhirng co
ehe mdi. Nhung co chl nay chic ehln se cd tinh
dan chd hon, edng bang hon vdi eac nudc dang
phat trien. Cude khung hoang da cho tbly nha
nudc van se tiep tuc giir vai trd quan trgng. Nhu
vay thi cac co che qudc te, cung se ngay cang cd
y nghia hon trong cue dien nay.

Sy thay ddi rd ret ban ca la trong each iing xu
qudc te, nen tang cua he thdng "luat choi" cda
quan he qudc te. Sau mdt thdi gian ngit quang

bdi chinh sach don phuong den mue hilu chiln
cua My, xu hudng ddi thoai da quay trd lai. Qua
trinh tim kiem cac giai phap nham khic phuc
khung hoang da thdc day sy chia se quyin lyc
mdt each nr nguyen. Chinh sach mim deo, mang
nhieu tinh thda hiep cua chinh quyin 6-ba-ma
phan nao da tao ra mdt co clu quyin lyc mdi
trong quan he qudc tl. Hien tugng nay duge mdt
sd nha nghien euu ggi la "hinh thai khdng phan
cyc" dl khing dinh mdi hen he chat che giua cac
trang tam nay chu khdng phai tdn tai rieng re
nhu CO clu hai eye thdi Chiln tranh lanb^^). Hien
tai, chdng ta chua thay nhung biln chuyin ldn
trong he thdng luat qudc tl. Tuy nhien, vdi sy
tham gia eda eae nudc nhd hay sy lien kit giua
cac td chuc khu vyc (nhu sy phat triln cda co chl
ASEM) din din se lam thay ddi he thdng "luat
choi" hien hanh.

Tat nhien, eung khdng nen qua ao tudng cd
mdt sy thay ddi mang tinh tdng the chi trong
khoanh khac. Van cdn qua nhieu van de qudc te
ddi hdi phai cd thdi gian va nhirng viee lam thyc
te mdi cd the dugc giai quyet, vi du nhu van dl
hat nhan cua I-ran, cua CHDCND Trieu Tien
hay xung dot I-xra-en - Pa-le-xtin v.v.. Chinh vi
the, trong cue dien the gidi mdi nay van cdn tdn
tai nhieu dac diem cua giai doan trudc, cu the
nhu:

1- Vai trd cda Nha nudc van tiep tue chi phdi
ca nhimg van de ddi ndi lan ddi ngoai. Cac gdi
c-ihi trg kinh te cho thay vai trd quan trgng den
nhudng nao cda chinh phd trong thdi khic
khdng hoang. Ngudi ta lai ndi nhieu ve tinh hun
ich cda hgc thuyet Ken (Kerm.es) va chinh saeh
"New Deal" cda F. Ru-do-ven^^^ Nhung nlu vai
trd eua nha nude tang len thi van de bao ve lgi
ich cda nha nudc dd (chdng ta thudng su dung
ngdn tu "lgi ieh qudc gia") se ludn duge dat len
hang dau. Xung dot lgi ich giua cac nha nudc, vi
vay, cau chuyen nhung bien phap dung de khic
phuc nhung mau thuan nay sinh lai tiep tuc la
diep khdc cua lich su. Cac bien phap bao hd mau
dich trong co cau khdng phan cyc se cd co hdi
de phat trien.

2 - Vai trd cda eac co che qudc te, trude het
la Lien hgp qudc, se ngay mdt gia tang. Trong
trang thai khdng phan cyc, sy dn dinh cda the
gidi se phu thude rat nhieu vao muc do hieu lye
phap ly cda cac the che qudc te. Ndi each khac,
y thue trach nhiem ddi vdi cac quy dinh qude te

(6) "Nhiing tac dpng dia chinh tri cila cuoc khiing hoang
<i>tai chinh". Thong tan xa Viet Nam, Tin tham khdo ddc biet </i>
-tham khao Chu nhat 05-04-2009

<i>(7) Willy Lam: Beijing Learns to be a Superpower, Far </i>
Eastern Econpmic Review (FEER), May 2009;

<i>(8) Richad N. Haass: The Age of Nonpolarity What Will </i>
<i>Follow US Dominance, da dan, tr 6 - 9 </i>

<i>(9) F. Fukuyama: A New Era. The American Interest. </i>
Vol. 4, No 3, January/February 2009,
in>.. ... n

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<span class='text_page_counter'>(6)</span><div class='page_container' data-page=6>

The gidi: Van dd - Su kien <b>T a p chl C d n g s d n </b>

cua tung thanh vien trong cae co che dd se cd y
nghia quyet dinh ddi vdi tuong lai cda the gidi.
Trong khi dd, he thdng luat phap qudc te da
dugc dinh hinh tu rat lau, nhieu dieu khoan da
khdng cdn thich img vdi hoan canh mdi nua
nhung trong sd nhung nha lam luat (d day mudn
ndi la cac nha nudc) khdng phai ai ciing mudn cd
sy thay ddi cai ma hg thudng ggi la "Nhirng
nguyen tae bat di bat dieh". Nhirng that bai ma
Lien hgp qude dang vudng phai ddi vdi van de
hat nhan tren ban dao Trieu Tien cho thay, loai
ngudi van dang loay hoay trong hai sy lya chgn:
<i>Bao lyc hay luat phap ^^^K </i>

3 - Md hinh phat trien cua nen kinh te the
gidi hien nay van chua dyng qua nhieu rui ro bdi
tinh phi ddi xung cua nd. Qua trinh loan cau hda
mdi di dugc nhirng bude di ban dau - lap ghep

cac nin kinh tl rieng biet lai vdi nhau. Nhirng
vlt ghep vln hien ra qua rd, bdi nhung mau thuan
giira mdt ben xult khiu va ben nhap khau, giira
nhung nha diu tu va ngudi nhan tien hay cdng
nghe vln chua cd mdt hudng giai quyet nao dn
thda. Sy ylu kem cda WTO trong nhung xung
dot giira My va EU; My va Trang Qudc v.v.. da
• chung minh dieu dd. Ngay bat cu mdt nen kinh
tl nao, tieu biiu nhu nin kinh tl My, ciing chua
cTio thiy budc dot pha nao trong md hinh phat
trien. Cac chuyen gia kinh tl van loay hoay tim
kilm mdt miu hinh phan clp quan ly giira nha
nudc va khu vyc tu nhan d muc do nao cho thda
dang, giam thieu rdi ro.

4 - Trong qua trinh giai quylt nhimg van de
ndng bdng cda cugc sdng, nhu van de chdng
khung bd qudc tl hay vln dl elm phd bien vu
khi hat nhan ching ban, chic ehln se lam nay
sinh nhilu vln dl mdi, tham chi chua gap bao
gid. Nhung chung ta thyc sy chua cd sy chuan bi
de ddi phd, va theo thdi quen thdng tiiudng,
chung ta vln qua lam dung nhirng phuong thuc
cu ky de giai quylt chdng. Z.Bre-din-xki trong
bai bao: "Nhung thach thuc quan trgng ve chinh
sach ddi ngoai ddi vdi tan tdng thdng Hoa Ky",
sau khi liet ke mdt loat thach thuc ma nude My

dang phai ddi mat, da khing dinh viec thay ddi
chinh sach cung rin cua chinh quyen tien nhiem

G.Bu-so la hoan toan hgp ly. Tuy nhien, dng van
nhln manh ring, nhirng viec lam dd la de nham
duy tri uu thi, khing dinh vi tri sd mdt cua nude
My tren thi gidi. Ldi m duy cd dien nay van tiep
tue tdn tai song song vdi luan diem "thay ddi"
cua chinh quyin Tdng thdng B.6-ba-ma ' " \

Tdm lai, dudi tac ddng cua cugc khung
hoang tai chinh thi gidi dang cd nhung thay ddi
va he qua tat ylu la mdt cue dien khdng phan
cyc da dan Id dien. Cue dien the gidi mdi cd sy
<i>dan xen giira nhimg "luat choi" cu va mdi ^^'^\ </i>
Dac biet, do khdng cd sy thay ddi ldn ve so sanh
lyc lugng nen trong cue dien nay van cd the tdn
tai hinh thuc phan cyc d cap do khu vyc.

Nhin lai chang dudng 20 nam sau khi Chien
tranh lanh kit thuc, thi gidi da cd that nhilu bien
ddi. Nhung biln ddi dd dien ra ngay cang mau
le, bdi loai ngudi dang sdng trong ky nguyen
thdng tin va loan clu hda. Qua trinh van ddng
nay phan anh sau sic vai trd chu dao cua cac nha
nudc, va sy khac biet ve lgi ich qude gia da
khiln nhirng thay ddi dd khdng phai luc nao
ciing theo mdt dudng thing tien ve phia trude.
Cugc khung hoang tai ehinh nam 2008 khdng cd
sue manh tan pha nhu con dai khung hoang

1929 - 1933 nhung cung du tao ra mdt dien mao
mdi cho thi gidi. Sy chia se quyen lyc eho thay,

cu sau mdi cugc khung hoang ldn, kinh te hay an
ninh, con ngudi lai tien them mgt budc theo
hudng dan chu hon va cdng bang hon. Hy vgng
thi ky XXI nay se khep lai vdi nhimg ket qua tdt
dep hon cho phan ddng nhan loai. •

<i>(10) F. Fukuyama: After the Neocons America at the </i>
<i>Crossroads, Press Profile Books, London 2006, tr 191 </i>

<i>(11) Z. Brezinsky: Major Foreign Policy Challenges for </i>
<i>the Next US President, Intemational Affairs, Vol. 85, Noi, </i>
January 2009, pages 53-60/ Ban dich tidng Viet trong Tai
heu nghien cuu, Vien Thong tin KHXH, s6 TN 2009 - 23,
tr 11-12

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