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<i>YtOVGBU&C TBOJVG TIL IC H THUU </i>

I. Thj trirdng vang the gidi
nam 2010: Nam tang gia an
tiffing

Nam 2010 dagc xem nha la
"nam vang" cua kim loai quy va
hang hda. Theo so lieu thd'ng
ke, gia vang da tang gan 30%
(nam 2010, gia md cda la
1.096,75 USD/ounce va gia
ddng cda la 1.421 USD/ounce);
gia bac tang 84%, palladium
tang 96%, platinum tang 21%,
dong tang 33% va dau thd tang
1 5%.

Viec gia vang tang trong nam
2010 da danh da'u mdt thap ky
tang gia lien tiep cua vang, td
mdc 251 USD/ounce nam 2001
len mQc ky luc 1.431 USD/ounce
ddpc xac lap vao ngay
07/12/2010. Thdi gian qua, vang
dPdc danh gia la mdt loai tien te
thay the va ddng vai trd la "ham
tru an an loan" trade nhQng bat dn
khdng iQdng trade cua thi trUdng
tai chinh qudc te.

Cac mdc quan trpng cua thi
trudng vang the gidi nam 201 0 la:

- Ngay 05/02/2010: gia vang
dat mQc tha'p nhat trong nam
11.044,45 USD/ounce), md ra da
tang gia cua vang.

- Ngay 14/05/2010: vang tang
gia len mQc 1.249 USD/ounce,
xac lap mdt mQc ky luc mdi.

- Ngay 21/06/2010: vang tang
gia len mQc 1.265 USD/ounce,
tiep tuc xac lap vung dinh mdi.

- Ngay 28/07/2010: vang giao
dich d mQc 1.156,70 USD/ounce,
danh da'u mQc hd tro quan trong
thQ hai trong nim. Nhu cau mua
tang cao, trong khi ddng USD truqt
gia da hd tra rat manh cho gia
vang.

- Ngay 09/11/2010: vang giao
dich a mQc gia ky Ipc mdi 1.424

<i>D U B A O G I A V A N G T H E G l d l </i>
<i>N A M 2 0 1 1 </i>
NGUYEN THj BICH HOA, NGUYEN HONG QUAN vd cong sU

<i>Chi nhanh tai Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh </i>
<i>Trung tdm Thdng tin vd DU bdo kinh te - xd hdi guoc gia </i>

<i>In 2010, world gold price rose by approximately 30%, which marked </i>
<i>a decade long of continual rise. During recent years, gold has been seen </i>
<i>as alternative currency and safe haven for unexpected volatile </i>
<i>interna-tional financial market. Underlying reasons of sharp changes in world </i>
<i>gold market in 2010 are: USD depreciation; public debt in Europe; sharp </i>
<i>increase in gold demands of India and China; political instability in </i>
<i>Korean peninsula. </i>

<i>In 2011, those factors that drove up world gold price in 2010 are </i>
<i>expected to continue to affect world gold market. In addition, other </i>
<i>fac-tors should be taken into account include: risk of double crisis in </i>
<i>devel-oped economies; natural disasters... But there still exist factors that </i>
<i>reduce gold price such as: signs of US economic recovery; global </i>
<i>econ-omy continues its rebound momentum; gold supply is higher. Based on </i>
<i>assessment of above factors and technical analyses, 2011 is forecasted </i>
<i>to be a year of downward adjustment of gold price and the price will </i>
<i>fluctuate within range of 1,425 - 1,145 USD/ounce. </i>

USD/ounce. Thi trUdng vang sdi sue khien ca the gidi "bat ngd" vdi gia
vang, "Chien tranh tien te" bung phat.

- Ngay 07/12/2010: gia vang xac lap mQc ky luc moi thdi dai, dat
1.430,75 USD/ounce.

- Ngay 31/12/2010: vang ddng cda d mQc gia 1.421 USD/ounce,
danh dau nam thQ 10 tang lien tiep cua gia vang.

Sau khi tao sdng ldn vao thang 11/2009, thi trudng vang the gidi
tram ling trong mdt thdi gian kha d i i . Tuy nhien, bQdc sang nim 2010,
bi't chi'p sp lo ngai cua ngQdi din v i gidi dau tU tren toin the gidi, gii
ving lien tuc "nhiy mua", die biet l i vio nda cudi nam 2010 vdi hing
loat yeu to hd trp, tao ra cic dat sdng tang lien tuc va phi vo nhieu ky
luc ve gii. DPdi diy la mpt sd nguyen nhan din den sp bien ddng
manh cua gii ving trong nim 2010:

- Dong USD giam gia. Trong nim 2010, nen kinh te ldn nha't the
gidi dUng trudc nguy co cua cudc khung hoing kep. Theo nhieu chuyen
gia kinh te, nen kinh te My van ri't bat dn, hing loat gdi hd trp dupe
dUa ra nhim ndi long dinh lupng, dn dinh kinh te, dien hinh l i ngay
03/11/201 0, Cue Dp trQ lien bang My (FED) quyet dinh bom them 600

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ty USD vao thi trifdng de mua trai phieu kho bac (2-10 nam) trong thdi
han 8 thang. Gdi ho tro nay dang dat dau cham hdi cho cac nha dau
tU va dU bao se lam giam gia dong USD. SU mat long tin vao dong USD
se khien gia trai phieu chinh phu My giam manh va lai suat tang vpt.

Theo dd, de bao toan tai san, vang vin dupe xem la Ipa chon hang diu
ddi vdi cac nha diu tu. Viec cic nha diu tU them ving vio danh muc diu
tU nhim bio tdn gii trj d i hd trp tdt cho gii ving. Cd the ndi, trong nam
2010, mdi tuong quan ty le nghich gida gii vang va USD d i giii thich cho
phin ldn d i tang cua gii ving. Khi khung hoing tii chinh toin ciu nd ra,
nhieu ngin hing trung UOng (NHTW) tren the gidi d i i p dung cic chinh
sich ndi long tien te v i bom hing nghin ty USD vio thi trudng de giup nen
kinh te thoit khdi nguy CO suy thoii. He qui cua chinh sich niy l i i p Ipc
lam phit gia ting, niem tin cua ngUdi din va nhi diu tu vio ddng USD
vdi vai tro l i kenh du tru" gii tri bj sut giim, khien ho ting cUdng mua ving.

- Cupc khung hoang no d chau Au. Cupc khung hoing np d chau
Au xui't phit tU Hy Lap vao cudi nam 2009 v i bit diu bung nd vio diu
nam 2010 d i trd thinh tim diem cua kinh te the gidi trong sudt nam
2010. Mpt loat cic qudc gia nhu Hy Lap, Tiy Ban Nha, Bd Dio Nha,
Ailen v i Italia vUdng phii ginh ning np nln, tao sUc ep ldn len ddng
euro va lim suy giim long tin ddi vdi he thdng ngin hing chiu Au.
Theo nhieu nhi phin tich, dp bio cudc khung hoing cd the cdn tiep
tuc keo d i i trong thdi gian tdi. Di cung vdi cupc chien tranh tien te, lo
ngai ve khung hoing no d chiu Au cung khien cic nhi diu tU tim den
ving nhu mdt diem tru chin trong con bio tai chinh d chiu Au.

- Mat can do'i ldn ve cung - cau. Ngudn cung ving tren trii dit l i
hUu han, trong khi dd, viec khai thic ving dang ngiy cing trd nen khd
khan v i dit dd hon. Mi't cin dd'i cung - ciu vang dang ngiy cing ldn,
nhi't l i khi cic qudc gia sin xui't ving hing diu dang can kiet din t i i
nguyen. Udc tinh tdng khdi lupng vang dp trU qua che bien cua the gidi
hien d mdc 160.000 tin v i dupe bd sung them 2.400 tan/nam, tUOng
duong vdi mUc tang 1,7%, thip hon nhieu so vdi mUc tang cua ciu. Mat
khic, lin sdng "gom" ving cua cic quy diu tu dang dien ra. Sd lieu
thd'ng ke cho thi'y, Quy diu tU ving hing diu the gidi SPDR Gold Trust
mua ving nhieu hon bin ra, cu the: tU diu thing 9/2010 den ngay
9/11/2010, khi gii ving vuot "dinh" 1.400 USD/ounce, SPDR Gold
Trust d i bin ra 14,4 ti'n ving, trong khi mua vio 17,3 tin vang, ning
khdi lupng nim gid len mdc ky luc 1.305,7 ti'n ving. Theo gidi phan
tich, ddng thii niy cua SPDR Gold Trust d i cd tic dpng ri't ldn den thj
trUdng v i kich hoat thj trUdng ving bung nd.

Ben canh dd, ngin hing trung UOng (NHTW) cic nUdc cung dang
ting cUdng mua ving. Thdng thudng, cic NHTW la "kho du tru*" ving
cua toin the gidi v i thudng xuyen sd dung lupng vang khdng Id trong

kho de dieu tiet thi trudng, qua dd giQ gii ving d mdc khdng qui
"ndng". Tuy nhien, trong bd'i cinh bio gii keo d i i , lupng dp trU cua hp
cung din can kiet v i cic NHTW phii chi'p nhin "tha ndi" gii ving.
Ding chu y, khdng it NHTW tang cUdng mua ving cua cic quy diu tU
bing cich da dang du trO bing vang do lo ngai cho an nguy qudc gia.
Ddng thii nay vd hinh trung d i day gii ving len cao hon, di ngppc lai

nhiem vu ban diu cua cic ngin
hang.

- Ye'u td lam phat. Theo nhieu
chuyen gia, du nen kinh te the gidi
roi vio tinh trang lam phit hay
giim phit thi gii vang van tiep tuc
tang vi ving ludn dope xem l i t i i
sin an toin nhi't khi nen kinh te
roi vio giai doan khd khan.

Cic gdi kich thich tang trudng
kinh te ldn tren toin ciu d i kich
hoat nhin td lam phit, tU dd tic
ddng lim tang gii ving. Trong hai
nam qua, cic NHTW cua My,
chiu Au, Trung Qudc, Nhit Bin v i
nhieu nUdc khic da tang chi tieu,
ddng thdi in them tien mat. Hing
nghin ty USD thanh khoin d i dUdc
bom vio nen kinh te toan ciu,
khien lam phit tang vpt. Tren thpc
te, gii c i d i tang manh ddi vdi hai

mat hing thUc pham va nhien lieu.

- Nhu cau mua vang td An Do
<i>va Trung Qud'c tSng manh. Trung </i>
Qud'c v i An Do (chiem den 35%
dan so the gidi) l i hai qudc gia Ua
chuong ving. Thdi gian qua, tieu
dung ving cua An Dd - qud'c gia
tieu thu ving ldn nhi't the gidi
-d i tic -dpng nhieu -den gii vang.
Theo dp bio cua cic quy tai chinh
ldn, nhu ciu vang tai An Dp chua
cd did hieu suy giim bdi khdng
chi mua vang de lam trang sUc,
ngUdi din nUdc niy gid diy bit
dau cd thdi quen diu tu dii han
vio ving. Nim 2010, Udc tinh nhu
cau ving cua An Dd tang 11%.

Nim 2010, nhu ciu vang cua
Trung Qud'c d i tic dpng ldn den thj
trudng ving the gidi. Trong 10
thing diu nam, Trung Qud'c da
nhip khau hon 209 ti'n vang, tang
gan 5 lan so vdi mUc 45 ti'n cua c i
nam 2009. Ddng thdi, trong 5 nam
qua, Bic Kinh khdng ngUng gia
tang lUdng dU trU ving, tU mUc 600
ti'n len 1.054 ti'n. Theo gidi chuyen

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C H A O X U A N T A N M A O
gia, Trung Qudc se tiep tuc tang

loons vang dp trQ voi muc dich dUa
ddng NDT thanh ddng tien thanh
toan qudc te thay the ddng USD.
Chinh phu Trung Qudc cung
khuyen khich ngudi dan day manh
mua vang, ban NDT de gdp phan
ha gia NDT, kich thich xuat khau.
Day cung la mpt trong nhQng
nguyen nhan quan trpng lam giam
gia ddng USD, tao dieu kien cho gia
vang leo thang.

- Bat on chinh tri d ban dao
<i>Trieu Tien. Vao nda cudi nam </i>
2010, quan he giQa Han Qudc va
B3c Trieu Tien trd nen cang thang,
tao ra sp lo ngai se cd chien tranh
nd ra giQa hai node. Dieu nay da
khien gidi dau to tim den va tiep
tuc mua vang de dp trQ, khien gia
vang tang manh.

II. DP bao thj trQdng vang the
gidi nam 2011

Tinh hinh kinh te the gidi cho
thay, nhQng yeu td chinh thuc di'y

gia vang tang nam 2010 se tiep
tuc tac dpng den thj trQdng vang
n3m 2011 nhQ: kha n3ng hdi
phuc cua kinh te the gidi con
chua rd net; khung hoang np cdng
d chau Au van tiem an nguy cd
lan rong; nguy cd lam phat cao
cung vdi nhQng bat dn tren thj
trQdng chQng khoan, thj trQdng
bat dpng san; mat can ddi trong
quan he cung - cau vang... Ngoai
ra can tinh den cac nhan to sau:

- Cac nUdc phat trien dang
<i>phai dd'i mat vdi nguy co suy </i>
<i>thoai lan thd hai. Trong nam qua, </i>
tdc dp tang trQdng manh cua cac
nen kinh te chau A da gdp phan
dang ke trong vipc da'y gia hang
hda len cao, lam day len sp lo
ngai bung nd bong bdng lam phat

1,1_{Trong nam 2010. so' ngan hdng phd son toi}

My tdng ky luc Tinh den ddu thdng U/2010 dd
cd 1 <S3 ngdn hdng phd sdn.

va khien cac nen kinh te chao dao. Khi lam phat bung nd, gia ca hang
hda va dac biet la vang se tiep tuc leo thang. Ben canh dd, cac chinh
sach ndi long djnh lUdng dang dupe trien khai tai nhieu nUdc cung lam

gia tang md'i lo ngai lam phat trong tuong lai, khien lai sua't dai han
tang cao.

Trong bdi canh nen kinh te chQa cd nhieu khdi sic nho hien nay, cac
qud'c gia tren the gidi budc phai that chat chi tieu do nhieu nQdc dang
phai ddi mat vdi cac khoan tham hut ngan sach khdng Id va van de np
cdng. Tuy nhien, theo canh bao cua Quy Tien te Qudc te (IMF), viec that
chat chi tieu cd the khien cac nPdc phat trien lam vao suy thoai lan hai
do sp phuc hdi kinh te tai cac nen kinh te nay rat cham chap va mong
manh. Kinh te My dang gap nhieu khd khan: lan sdng tjch thu tai khoan
the chap ngay cang dQ dpi, cac doanh nghiep vQa va nhd khdng nhan
dope vdn vay, trong khi cac ngan hang quy md vQa va nhd cd the cap vd'n
cho cac doanh nghiep nay vin dang phii ddi mat vdi nguy CO phi sin"1_.

- Ngoai ra, cac yeu to tu nhien cd the tac ddng trUc tiep va gian
<i>tiep tdi gia vang nhit. dpng dit, nui Ida, thien tai... </i>

Dudi tic ddng cua cic nhin td ke tren, nam 2011, dp bio ving vin
tiep tuc dupe xem l i "him tru an" an toin. C i i ving cd the tiep tuc
tang v i theo nhieu nhin dinh, cd the dat tdi mdc 1.500-1.650
USD/ounce, thim chi cao hdn.

Tuy nhien, n3m 2011, cung cd nhieu nhin to tic ddng khien ving
giim gii, dd l i :

- Kinh te My cd dau hieu khdi sic: theo dp bio cua nhieu chuyen
gia, kinh te My nim 2011 cd the dat mQc ting trudng 2-3%. Su khdi
sac cua kinh te My se hd trp cho tang trudng kinh te the gidi vi My van
la nen kinh te ldn nhi't the gidi.

- Kinh te the gidi dang tren da phuc hdi: cic nen kinh te d chiu Au
va Nhit Bin du bio se dat tdc do ting trudng khi. Ben canh dd, cic
nUdc dang phit trien dp bio se tiep tuc tang trudng cao, ddng gdp vio
tang trUdng kinh te toin ciu.

Su khdi sac cua kinh te My va sU phuc hdi cua kinh te the gidi se
l i yeu td quan trpng cd the dUa gii ving dn djnh trd lai.

- Nguon cung vang duoc bo sung: viec An Dp phit hien md ving cd
trQ iQpng 6.000 tin l i mdt yeu to inh hodng manh me tdi gii ving trong
thdi gian tdi. Viec dQa vio khai thic md ving niy se tao ra ngudn cung
ri't ldn cho nhu cau thj trQdng hien nay, tQ dd khien gii ving giim.

Vdi nhQng thdng tin kinh te tich cQc ke tren v i viec da dang hoi
danh muc diu tQ, dp bio thj trudng tien te se cin bing hon trong nam
2011. Cung vdi sU hdi phuc cua kinh te the gidi, gii ving dp bio se trd
ve vdi gii trj thUc va nim 2011 cd the la nim didu chinh nhe cua gii
ving sau chu ki 10 nim tang gii lien tiep.

III. Nhan djnh gia vang the gidi nam 2011 theo phan tich ky thuat
Nim 2010, gii vang the gidi md cda d mUc 1.096,75 USD/ounce,
xud'ng mQc thi'p nhi't 1.044,45 USD/ounce, sau dd tang len mQc cao
ky Ipc 1.430,75 USD/ounce v i ddng cda d mQc 1.421,60 USD/ounce,
ghi nhin mdt nim tang gii manh v i la nam ting gii thQ 10 lien tiep
(Bieu dd thing).

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Bieu do 1: Phan tich ky thuat do bao gia vang theo tha

Tai bieu dd thang, chi bao Stochastic (chi sd can ban nhan biet khuynh hodng va su* dao chieu cua thi
trudng) dang tU tren vung qua mua quay dau xudng, cho thay tin hieu giam dieu chinh cua gia vang trong

nhUng thang dau nam 2011. Chi bao Volumes (khdi luang mua ban theo cung cau tren thi trUdng) cho thay,
gia vang dang nim d mUc cao chua tdng cd sau 5 thing ting lien tiep vdi khdi lupng giao dich ri't ldn trong
nhUng thing cud'i nam 201 0, tuy nhien d i sut giim manh trong nhUng ngiy diu nim 2011. Dieu niy bio
hieu sp dio chieu giim gii cua vang trong nam 2011 l i ri't cao.

Bieu do 2: Phan tich ky thuat du bao gia vang theo tuan

Tai bieu dd tuan, dudng chi bio xu hudng d i cit dudng MACD (chi so bien ddng gii) v i hudng xud'ng,
md ra khi ning giim gii trong nhUng tuan diu nam 2011 v i trong nam 201 1, gii vang cd the giim siu neu
nguong hd trp 1.300 USD'ounce v i 1.290 USD/ounce bi xuyen thung. Chi bio Stochastic cung dang quay
diu xud'ng, cung cd cho xu hudng giim d i neu.

SU dung phin tich co bin ket hop vdi ket qui phin tich ky thuat, Nhdm tic gii dp bio nam 2011 cd khi
nang l i mpt nam giim dieu chinh cua gii ving va bien dp dao ddng cua gii vang l i : 1.425-1.145 USD/ounce.

<i>Tac dong den gia vang (rong node: gii vang Viet Nam dp bio se dao ddng theo nhip tang, giim cua gii </i>
vang the gidi, tuy nhien vin cd mUc chenh lech khi cao gida gii ving trong nUdc v i gii ving the gidi. Mac
du d i cd su lien thdng do Nhi nUdc da ci'p han ngach nhip khi'u ving cho mdt sd don vi du didu kien,
nhung mdt so chinh sich cua Nhi nUdc va tim ly mua ving tich tru*, diu cO cua ngUdi din cung tic dpng
khdng it tdi gii ving trong nudcD

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