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<b>KHUNG HOANG NANG Ll/QNG </b>

<b>VA V I TRI CUA CAC</b>

<b> N U Q C</b>

<b> TRUNG DONG </b>

<b>TRONG THI</b>

<b> T R U O N G</b>

<b> NANG</b>

<b> L U O N G</b>

<b> THE G I O I </b>

<i>Tran Vdn Tiing ^ </i>

T

ir giiia thap nien 1980 den thang
9-2003, gia dau md lien tuc tang
tir 25 USD/thimg len 30
USD/thimg. Sau dd gia dau lai tang tir 60
USD/thimg vao thang 11-2005 va dat
dinh 147,3 USD/thiing vao nam 2008.
The gidi da d trong tinh canh khung
hoang nang lugng va nhieu nha kinh te ve
dau md dang di tim cac can nguyen ciia
tinh trang nay. Ban bao cao nay chi tap
trung vao ba khia canh, cung - cau ve
dau, vi tri cua Trung Ddng trong can can
nang lugng the gidi va nhirng khd khan
ma cac nudc Trung Ddng dang gap phai
trong viec khai thac va phan chia Igi ich
tir ngudn Igi dau md.

1. Cung - c§u nang iLPcyng t h i gio'i

Pho giao su, Tien si

•Vign Nghien cuu Chau Phi va Trung Dong

Mue cau ve dau md the gidi tiep tuc

tang, vdi ty le tang trung binh hang nam
la 1,76% trong thdi ky 1994-2006 va
3,4% trong thdi ky 2003-2005. Theo du
bao cua Cdng ty Nang lugng Qude te
(lEA) thi nhu cau ve dau md the gidi nam
2030 se tang 37% so vdi nam 2007, nghia
la tang tir 86 trieu thung/ngay len 118
trieu thiing ngay (tuong duong vdi

118.000.000m^). Ciing theo du bao ciia
lEA, nhu cau ve dau tai cac nudc dang
phat trien ciing dat miic tang trung binh
khoang 3,7% mdt nam trong thdi ky
2007-2015, chiem tdi 70%, miic tang nhu
cau ve dau eiia ca the gidi.

Giao thdng la linh vuc tieu thu lugng
xang dau Idn nhat. Tai My, giao thdng
chiem tdi 68,9%) lugng xang dau tieu thu
ciia ea nudc vao nam 2006. Ngoai ra, cac
loai xe tai, xe ea cua Trung Qude, An Dp

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<i>Khung hoang nang I Udng.. </i> _{Tran Van Tiing}

ciing la nhung phuong tien tieu thu nhieu
xang dau. Theo du bao cua lEA, cac
phuong tien giao thdng ciia Trung Quoc,
An Dp cd the chiem tdi 75% miic tieu thu
xang dau trong thdi ky 2001-2005. Nam
2008, lugng xe dtd ban ra ciia Trung

Qude trong thi trudng ndi dia tang 20%,
do ty le tang trudng cua Trung Qude
nhirng nam gan day dat miic cao va thu
nhap ctia ngudi dan dugc cai thien. Miic
cau ve xang dau tai cac nudc dang phat
trien da tang nhanh, nhung My van la
nudc lap ky luc ve miic tieu thu xang dau
vdi miic 20,7 trieu thimg/ngay vao nam
2005. Trung Quoc tieu thu khoang 7 trieu
thiing/ngay va An Dp tieu thu 5 trieu
thimg/ngay vao nam 2005. Miic tieu thu
xang dau binh quan dau ngudi hang nam
vao nam 2008 ciia My la 24,85 thiing,
cdn Trung Quoc la 17,9 thimg va An Dp
la 0,79 thiing.

Tai cac nudc phat trien, cdng nghiep
hoa, do thi hoa va miic sdng cao da thiic
day nhu cau sii dung nang lugng dau tang
nhanh. Trong tuong lai khdng xa, Trung
Quoc, An Dp la nhung qude gia ddng dan
cd ty le tang trudng kinh te cao vao bae
nhat the gidi thi nhu cau sii dung xang
dau se bung nd. Thue te da cho thay miic
cau ve dau tai Trung Qude da tang hang
nam la 8% trong thdi ky 1996-2006. Nhu
cau dau md tai An Dp cung tang nhanh,
nam 2005 An Dp nhap khau 3,5 trieu
thimg/ngay va theo lEA trong thdi ky
2005-2020, An Dp phai nhap khau tir 5-7

trieu thimg/ngay. Nhu cau tieu thu dau
ciing tang do ty le tang dan so tai cac
nudc dang phat trien van cdn cao. Du
bao cua Quy dan sd Lien hgp quoc cho
thay dan sd the gidi nam 2030 se gap ddi
dan so nam 1980 len tdi hon 10,2 ty
ngudi. Dan sd tang, nhu cau sir dung
xang dau ciia ndng dan de tudi tieu nudc,
cay, bira, gat dap... phuc vu cho san xuat
ndng nghiep ciing tang.

Ddi dien vdi miic cau tiep tuc tang thi
dieu dang lo ngai la mirc cung ve dau mo
lai khdng tuong xiing vdi miic cau, tham
chi la giam, trong khi gia dau van tang.
Neu nhu chi dua vao cac md dau Idn mdi
dugc phat hien tir nam 1980 thi nhieu md
da den thdi gian can kiet. Tuy nhien, khi
gia dau md len tdi dinh diem vao nam
2008 thi nhieu quoc gia da tim nguon
nguyen lieu thay the va cd cac chien luge
khai thac, phat trien cac ngudn nang
lugng mdi. Theo each dd, cd the lam
giam phan nao tinh trang khiing hoang
nang lugng tai timg quoc gia, khu vuc va
the gidi^^^.

Yeu td quyet dinh lam cho lupng cung
dau thap chinh la ty le Igi tiic thap trong

viec dau tu khai thac dau, Igi tiic da giam
di mot each dang lo ngai, bdi vi cac mo
dau hien nay hau nhu d ngoai khoi xa,
vdi dp sau hang chuc km. Dau khdng
phai la ngudn du trir vd ban tren cac 'voing
dat lien. Hien nay cac md dau Idn chi tap
trung d Trung Ddng, cac quoc gia vimg
Vinh va vung bien Bae ciia Canada.

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Tran Van Tung <i>Khung hoang nang ludng.. </i>

Mudn tang san lugng khai thac phai ap
dung cdng nghe mdi, rat tiec cho tdi ngay
nay van chua c6 edng nghe dot pha. Gia
thiet bi va cdng nghe khai thae dau qua
dat, do dd san lugng khai thae se giam tir
3,5% den 7% mdt nam tir nay den nam
2020. Neu nhu tdng cung dau khdng
giam, mdt hau qua se dan den la thi
trudng nang lugng the gidi ludn phu
thuoc vao dau, can trd viec thirc hien eae
du an khai thac va sir dung ngudn nang
lugng mdi, gay d nhiem mdi trudng.
Theg Matthew Simmon, nha kinh te nang
lugng Phap thi da den liic thi trudng nang
lugng the gidi can phai tu dieu chinh de
dat tdi su can bang miic cung cau ngudn
nang lugng de thoa man nhu cau tieu
dimg da dang ciia mpi ngudi dan tren the
gidi. Vdi hy vpng sii dung ngudn nang

lugng mdi, Hiep hpi nghien ciiu nang
lugng Cambridge tinh rang nhu cau su
dimg cac san pham xang dau se giam
trong tuong lai. Dd la mot du bao nguge
lai vdi du bao ciia lEA va khdng ai dam
cho rang du bao la diing.

2. Vj tri cua Trung Dong trong can
cSn nang iLPO-ng toan c l u

Cac quoc gia Trung Ddng cd trii lugng
dau md Idn nhat the gidi. Do dd, thi
trudng dau md the gidi ludn bi le thuoc
vao lupng dau khai thae eiia cac nudc
nay. Ngoai dau md thi Trung Ddng cdn la
noi cd lugng du trii khi tu nhien khdng
Id, chua khai thac duge bao nhieu. Iran la
nudc ed ngudn du trir khi ddt thu hai the

gidi, ehi sau Lien bang Nga, nhung lugng
khi ddt da khai thae tai nude nay la qua
nhd be. Iran thudng nhap khau khi ddt tir
Turkmeristan, mdt nam khoang 4,9 ty m
trong thdi ky 2001-2005. Lugng khi dot
dugc su dung trong cdng nghiep ciia cac
nudc Trung Ddng chi chiem 14% tdng
ngudn nang lugng dugc su dung vao nam
2005. Nhu vay, dau md van ed vi tri quan
trpng trong can can nang lupng toan cau
va ngay ca tai khu vuc Trung Ddng, Bae

Phi (MENA).

Theo danh gia ciia lEA, den nam 2001,
du trir dau thd tai Trung Ddng chiem
69% tdng lugng du trii dau thd ciia ca the
gidi. Trong dd san lugng khai thac chiem
31% va xuat khau chiem tdi 50% so vdi
tdng lugng khai thac va xuat khau ciia ca
the gidi. Mac dau lugng dau md mdi
tham dd dugc la kha lac quan, cd them
mdt sd md dau tai cac nude cdng hoa
Lien Xd cii, Bae Phi, nhung lugng dau
Idn chua khai thac chu yeu van tap trung
d Trung Ddng. Ngoai ra, lugng khi dot
tai Trung Ddng vira phat hien ed trii
lugng khoang 155.000 ty m^ chiem tdi
40% tdng lugng du trii khi dot ciia ca the
gidi. De dap irng cae nhu cau tieu dimg
khi ddt, nam 2002 cac nude Algeria,
Qatar, Oman da dau tu cac du an khai
thac khi tu nhien tai Iran, Lybia, Yemen,
gdp phan dam bao miic tang trudng ben
vimg ve nguon eung khi ddt eho nhiing
nam tiep theo. Song song vdi viec khai
thac, cae nude Trung Ddng ciing dang cd

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<i>Khung hoang nang lu'dng.. </i> _{Tran Van Tung}

cac chien luge xuat khau khi dot ra thi
trudng the gidi de canh tranh vdi Nga.

Theo du bao cua lEA d tren, miic cau
ve dau cua the gidi tiep tuc tang nhung
OPEC (chu yeu la Trung Ddng) chi dap
ling dugc 27 trieu thiing/ngay vao nam
2010 va 36 trieu thimg/ngay vao nam
2020, chiem hon 40% miic cung. Thirc te
may nam gan day cho thay miic cung cua
OPEC da giam, bdi vi ngudn du trii va
khai thac cd ban. Cac nudc MENA chiem
88% lugng dau du trii va 77% san lugng
khai thac dau ciia OPEC. Nhu vay neu
san lugng khai thac ciia cac nudc MENA
tang len mdi dam bao cho miic cung cua
OPEC khdng thay ddi. Gia dau tang, la
CO hgi cho cac qude gia Trung Dong
dugc hudng Igi tir xuat khau dau, do do
mac dau OPEC da tien hanh nhieu cude
hpp, nhung ket cue hp van giii nguyen
miic khai thac nhu hien nay. Gia dau
dang trd thanh mdt yeu td cd anh hudng
tdi nhip do tang trudng ciia cac kinh te
the gidi, gia dau tang cao, se lam giam
toe dp tang trudng kinh te ciia khu vuc va
cac qude gia. Viec bao dam an ninh nang
lugng dang dugc ca cdng ddng qude te
quan tam. Nhirng du bao khac nhau ve
gia dau md dang tang len la phu hgp vdi
xu hudng tang cung va cau dang ban che.
Cuoi nam 2008, Chakib Khelil- Chii tich

OPEC cho rang gia dau md tren thi
trudng the gidi nam 2009, 2010 cd the
len tdi ITOUSD/thimg, tham chi theo
Alexei Miller Chii tich Tap doan
Gazprom cua Nga gia dau se la

250USD/thung. Nhirng du bao do da bi
bae bd vi gia dau vao nam 2009 va dau
nam 2010 chua vugt qua 80USD/tbiing.
Theo tinh toan ciia lEA, miic cau ve dau
ciia Tmng Qude vao nam 2030 chiem tdi
43%, An Dp va Trung Dong mdi khu vuc
chiem tdi 20%, trong khi cac nudc OPEC
chi cung cap 51% san lugng dau the gidi
thi xu hudng gia dau tiep tuc tang la cd

CO sd.

3. NhCpng thach thCpc ma cac
niHO'c Trung Dong phai d6i mat

Kho khan, thach thirc ma cac nudc
Trung Ddng dang phai ddi mat de duy
tri vi tri dgc tdn cua minh tren thi
trudng dau khi the gidi la kha nhieu, sau
day chi tap trung phan tich mot sd kho
khan chinh.

<i>Thir nhdt, ve vdn dau tu. Neu nhu can </i>
tang them san lugng khai thac, cac nudc

Trung Ddng can tien hanh brien khai cac
du an Idn, cd cdng nghe tien tien. Von
dau tu vao cdng nghiep dau khi ciia
MENA hau het la huy dgng trong nudc
do cac cdng ty dau khi qude gia dau tu.
Thi du nam 2002, Quy Dau tu dau khi
Saudi da trien khai du an khai thac khi tai
mdt sd qude gia cua MENA nhu Oman,
Iran, Algeria, Lybia vdi lugng von dau tu
25 ty USD. Sd lugng cac cdng ty nudc
ngoai dau tu khai thac dau khi tai Trung
Ddng edn it, hau het la cac du an dau tu
ciia Anh tiep theo la My, Trung Quoc.
Mdt vai nude nhu Qatar, Sudan cd cac du
an dau tu nudc ngoai cung hgp tac khai

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Tran Van Tiing <i>Khung hoang nang Iddng.. </i>

thac, nhung hau het cae du an hgp tae ehi
gidi ban d tuyen dudi, nghia la che tao
cac san pham hoa dau, cung cap nudc
sach. Cac du an dau tu nudc ngoai tai
Trung Ddng thudng trien khai cham, do
vudng mac bdi cac thoa thuan hgp ddng,
each thiic phan chia Igi nhuan. Mac dau
cac nudc nay da ddi mdi cac thii tuc cap
phat dau tu de thu hiit FDI, cho phep cac
cong ty tham gia dau thau cac du an
nhung sd vdn huy ddng dugc ca trong va
ngoai nudc cdn khiem tdn. Theo danh gia

ciia cac nha nghien ciru lEA, trong thdi
ky 2003-2015, MENA can huy dpng tir
30-40 ty USD vdn trong nudc de thue
hien cac du an khai thac dau, dau tu ha
tang CO sd, che bien cac san pham hoa
dau, xay dung cac nha may dien va cung
cap nudc sach. Vdi ngudn vdn dd trong
10 nam cd the tao ra 2 trieu tan dau mot
nam, 300Galon nudc sach mdt ngay
(1 Galon = 4,546 lit) va 4 trieu Mega Oat
dien. So von FDI dang ky nam 2008 tai
MENA khoang 80 ty USD nhung vao
linh -vuc khai thac dau khi chiem chua tdi

1/3 lupng vdn va vdn tue hien d mirc
thap. Mdi trudng dau tu gan day da dugc
cai thien, nhung do bat dn chinh tri, xung
dot, nhieu nha dau tu nude ngoai van cdn
dan do khi thue hien cac du an dau tu
khai thac, che bien san pham dau lau dai
tai MENA. Irac la nudc cd du trii dau
Idn, nhung san lugng khai thac chua the
hdi phuc nhu thdi trudc chien tranh.

<i>Thit hai, thach thiic trong eg che hgp </i>
tac boat ddng thuong mai thdng qua lien

ket khu -vuc. Hien tai da cd mdt sd du an
<i>hgp tae ve nang lugng trong khu YUC nay </i>
dang dugc trien khai de phat huy eae loi

the dia ly, ve ngudn du trir khac nhau
giira cac qude gia. Cac nudc dang cimg
lien ket xay dimg mot he thdng dan khi
ddt tir Qatar (nude cd lugng du trir khi
dot Idn thii ba the gidi) den Kuwait, Cac
Tieu -vorong qude Arap Thdng nhat,
Oman, de tir dd chuyen sang Pakistan va
cac nudc Nam A xa hgn. Nhu vay, se lap
dugc thi trudng trung gian ve dau khi ciia
eae khu vuc sang cac nude lang gieng,
nhiing qude gia dang can dau phuc vu
eho eae nganh edng nghiep. Khd khan
nay sinh can trd qua trinh hgp tac d cho
san lugng khai thae ludn bi gidi ban bdi
ban ngach do OPEC phan bd cho timg
nudc, the gidi Arap ludn bi chia re. Neu
ed su hgp tac, thdng nhat ve phan chia Igi
ich, viee md rdng thi trudng eiia MENA
vugt ra khdi khdng gian ndi bd khdi la
mdt CO hdi thiic day cac boat ddng buon
ban cac san pham dau khi giiia MENA
vdi cac qude gia khac. Md rdng thi
trudng la yeu cau cap thiet ciia MENA.

<i>Thir ba, thach thiic ve nang lire quan ly </i>
va dieu tiet ngudn thu, chi tir dau khi.
Nhieu quoc gia da nhin thay trudc du trii
ve dau khi ed the can kiet trong tuong lai,
ngoai ra can phai dieu tiet khoan chi nhu
the nao de bao dam cho su thinh vugng

lau dai dua vao ngudn dau khi eua minh.
NghTa la MENA ban che tieu dung tir
ngudn thu do dau khi ddng gdp mdt each
lang phi ddng thdi dau tu vao eae nganh

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<i>Khung noang nang lu'dng.. </i> _{Tran Van Tung}

cdng nghiep ngoai dau khi. Danh gia
chinh xac nguon du trii dau khi trong
tuong lai la cdng viec khd khan. Do dd,
can dua vao ngudn thu hien tai tir dau
khi, dua ra eae ehinh sach toi da hoa Igi
nhuan cho the he hien tai va tuong lai,
can bang ngan sach trd thanh van de
trung tam ciia ehinh sach phat trien doi
vdi MENA. Ngan sach ciia cac nudc
MENA ludn tham hut vdi nhiing nganh
kinh te khdng dua vao ngudn thu tir dau,
xuat khau dau khi ludn chiem ty trpng
<i>Idn trong tdng gia tri xuat khau {Xem </i>
<i>hdng 1). Bai toan dieu tiet ngudn thu vdi </i>
cac rang bupc bao dam du trii, dau tu cho
cac Imh vuc khac ngoai dau va bu dap
cho tham hut ngan sach, tranh cac nii ro
khi gia dau ha, trd thanh van de nan giai
hien nay. Neu nhu cac cdng nghe nang
lugng mdi dugc sii dung thi gia nguon
nang lugng mdi trd thanh ddi thii canh
tranh vdi gia dau khi trong can can nang
lugng. Viec san xuat dau khi vdi chi phi

ngay cang cao, nhung gia thanh phai ha
la dieu khdng trd thanh hien thue. Dieu
nay dang de doa tdi Igi ich ciia cac nudc
MENA ludn phu thude vao ngudn thu tir
dau khi.

Cac du an dau tu qude gia thudng lay
tien tir cac khoan thu tir dau khi. Mudn
giam bdt ganh nang nay thi can phai thu

hiit vdn dau tu nudc ngoai hoae von tu
nhan trong nudc. Nguon du trir dau khi
Idn hien tai cd tac dung nang cao miic
sdng, cd vdn dau tu vao ha tang co sd
phat trien thi trudng von thdng qua cac to
chiic da phuong, thi du lap cac ngan hang
dau khi.

Ngupe lai, cac nudc cd ngudn du trii
dau khi Idn, nhung khi gia dau khi giam
sau, kinh te se gap khd khan ngay lap tiic.
Phat trien da dang cac linh vuc kinh te
ngoai dau md la mot hudng kh4c phuc
nhirng nii ro khi thi trudng dau khi bien
dpng. Mdt sd quoc gia dang thirc hien cac
chinh sach nay nhung khdng cd ket qua.
Bdi vi trudng hgp Kuwait, Cac Tieu
Vugng qude Arap Thdng nhat thue hien
chinh sach da dang hoa cac boat dpng san
xuat, che tao trong nganh hoa dau kha

thanh cdng, nhung gia thanh cac san
pham nay cdn cao vi phu thupe vao gia
dau la yeu td dau vao co ban. Cac so lieu
bang 1 ciing cho thay cac nudc cd ty le
ngudn thu tir dau Idn ludn cd miic tham
hut d cac nganh khdng dau tang cao.
Ngoai ra, nang lire cdng nghe va chat
lugng ngudn nhan lire thap'- -*. Nhu vay,
cae bien phap bao dam cho cac nen kinh
te thoat khdi tinh trang phu thude vao thi
trudng dau md bang each tao ra cac
nganh nghe mdi van chua c6 loi thoat.

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Tran Van Tung <i><b>IKIIUIiy liuaiiy nauy luyuy. </b></i>

Bang 1: Tham hut ngan sach, thu nhap va xuat khau dau khi ciia MENA

<b>Cac chi tieu kinh te </b>
<i><b>Cdn cdn ngdn sdch khong cd dau </b></i>

<i><b>(Ty le % ciia GDP) </b></i>
Bahrain

Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Arap Xeut

Cac Tieu Vuang quoc Arap Thong nhat
Algeria

Iran
Libya
Yemen

<i><b>Thu nhdp tir dau (Ty le % trong tong thu </b></i>
<i><b>nhdp) </b></i>
Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Arap Xeut

Cac Tieu Vuang quoc Arap Thong nhat
Algeria

Iran
Libya
Yemen

<i><b>Xudt khdu ddu khi (Ty le % so vdi tong </b></i>
<i><b>gid tri xuat khdu) </b></i>

Bahrain
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Arap Xeut

Cac Tieu Vuang quoc Arap Thong nhat

Algeria

Iran
Libya
Yemen

<b>1998 </b> <b>1999 </b> <b>2000 </b> <b>2001 </b> <b>2002 </b>

-17,6
-28,6
-28,9
-31,9
-23,6
-20,1
-24,3
-15,1
-30,9
-23,4
-17,4
-23,9
-28,0
-27,7
-23,3
-19,4
-25,8
-12,9
-16,6
-23,3
-16,8
-16,4

-27,8
-18,0
-27,1
-15,4
-33,1
-16,8
-30,9
22,8
-18,1
-20,2
-31,0
-23,0
-30,7
-24,2
-31,5
-17,2
-51,0
-24,2
-20,6
-25,6
-29,5
-14,2
-29,5
-26,3
-33,1
-23,7
-105,2
-26,4
46,8
58,7

65,3
60,0
56,6
41,5
55,0
35,8
57,6
52,1
56,1
64,0
73,7
71,1
70,8
43,7
61,9
42,8
50,6
57,1
73,0
69,6
82,9
78,4
83,1
55,7
76,9
67,5
65,2
62,3
68,6
68,2

80,3
70,9
80,6
58,8
68,7
57,4
64,8
64,3
69,9
66,4
76,7
72,0
78,0
63,6
64,6
58,6
82,0
75,6
54,0
88,1
67,4
74,9
74,6
37,5
86,8
22,5
47,3
81,9
66,5
89,8

76,4
84,8
79,8
45,2
89,8
35,6
63,4
86,5
73,6
93,2
82,9
86,7
85,9
54,6
91,8
72,2
84,3
90,0
70,9
92,6
80,2
85,5
81,7
48,4
88,9
28,7
70,7
87,7
69,8
92,4

77,2
84,2
81,7
45,7
89,2
31,0
73,9
88,3

<i>Ngudn: Sd heu thdng ke cdc nudc MENA do Quy Tiin te qude ti cong bd </i>

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<span class='text_page_counter'>(8)</span><div class='page_container' data-page=8>

<i>Khung hoang nang lu'dng.. </i> Tran Van Tung

Tom lai, thi trudng dau md the gidi da
trai qua nhieu bien ddng Idn, ngudn nang

lupng mdi dang dugc khai thac va sii
dung cd the lam giam di thi phan cua dau
md trong tuong lai. He qua tat yeu la tac
dpng tieu cue tdi thu nhap ciia cac qude

gia xuat khau dau md d Trung Ddng. Ky
nguyen ma cac qude gia xuat khau dau
mo chi phdi thi trudng the gidi se qua.
Cac khoan thu du tinh dugc trong tuong

lai la khdng chae chan. Tuy nhien, cac
nudc Trung Ddng van giii vi tri trung tam
do nhu cau tieu dung dau md van tang

ddng thdi du trii dau d cac nudc OPEC

khac lai giam. Neu cac nudc MENA
khdng thoat khdi dugc tinh trang phu
thude vao cac ngudn thu tir xuat khau dau
khi thi sir thinh vugng ed the den hdi ket.

Chuyen dich eg cau kinh te, phat trien
kinh te tu nhan, phat trien ngudn nhan lire
de dap ling yeu cau da dang hoa nganh
nghe, dau tu vao nhirng nganh cdng

nghiep khdng dau, cd chinh sach tai khoa
hgp ly cd the giiip cho cac qude gia nay
tranh dugc cac nii ro do bien dpng thi

trudng dau md the gidi. Dd ciing la bai
hpc cho Viet Nam dang la nudc phu
thude vao dau xuat khau.

Tai lieu tham khao

<i>1. VS, Energy Information Administration (2009), Short - Term Energy Outlook. </i>

<i>2. VS, Energy Information Administration {200S),Global Oil Consumption. </i>

<i>3. Bright E.Okogu (2003), Changing Oil Market, IMF Press. </i>

<i>4. BP - Amoco (2002), Statistical Review of World Energy </i>

<i>5. IE A (2002), World Energy Outlook, OECD Press </i>

<i>6. lEA (2002), OdMarket Report, OECD Press </i>

<i>7. Grahan D. and Stephen G. (2002), 77?^ Demand for Automobile Fuel, Journal of Transport </i>

<i>and Economic Policy, Wo\.36. </i>

<i>8. Adelman, M. (2002/ Operational Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Od - Producing Countries, </i>

IMF Working Paper 02-177.

<i>9. John Hand GaryR.(2004), Long-Term World Od Supply Scenarios eia.doe.gov </i>

</div>

<!--links-->
<a href=''> eia.doe.gov </a>