LUA CHON MO HiNH TANG TRUdNG KINH

iL.

NGHItN ClifU T R a O D J l P M ^

LUA CHON M O HlNH T A N G TRl/dNG KINH T^ VIET NAM
GIAI DOAN 2011-2020
Nguyen Cong My
Ddt van de
Trong 25 ndm ddi mdi (1986-2011), nen
kinh td nude ta dd vugt qua nhiiu khd khdn
thdch thiic, song ve eo ban duy tri dugc t6c
dd tdng trudng khd, tilm lue vd quy md nin
kinh tl tdng len, nude ta da ra khdi tinh tigng
kdm phdt trien. Tde dg tdng trudng kinh tl
(GDP) binh qudn 10 nam 2001-2010 dat
7,3%. Ty tigng phi ndng nghidp trong GDP
tang ta 75,5% nam 2000 len 79,4% ndm
2010. Tde do tang xudt khdu eao gdp 2,3-2,5
idn tdc do tang GDP, GDP nam 2011 theo gid
thyc td tinh bdng USD ude dat 101,6 ty USD,
gdp ban 3,2 Idn ndm 2000, GDP theo gid thyc
tl tinh theo ddu ngudi quy ra USD ndm 2010
dat 1,168 USD. Nude ta dd ra khdi nhdm
nude kem phdt tiiln cd thu nhgp thdp. Hau
hit cdc nganh, ITnh vye cua nen kinh te ddu
cd budc phat triln khd.
Dat dugc nhiing thdnh tyu neu tren, cd
mdt phdn ddng gdp khdng nhd ciia md hinh
tang trudng kinh tl dd dugc lua chgn khd

phu hgp vdi bdi edrih eua Vidt Nam. Md
hinh tang trudng kinh td giai doan 19902010, dd phdt huy tde dyng tdt, song sang
giai doan mdi (2011-2020) ed thi da trd
thanh md hinh tang trudng tri tre, lac hgu.
Dd tdi lue Viet Nam phdi c6 su diiu chinh
md hinh tdng trudng cho phii hgp vdi diiu
kidn mdi, Nghi quylt Dgi hdi ddng todn
qudc idn thii XI cung chi rd, can thay ddi md
hinh tdng trudng kinh tl. Ndm 2010 vd ndm
'Nguyen Cdng My, Tiln sT, Trudng ban Th6ng tin vk
Hgp t ^ qu6c ti, Vi?n Chiln luge phit tri^n - B0 K I
hoach v^ Ddu tu.

Stf 45 (1+2/2011)

2011, dd diSn ra nhiiu cu^c hgi thdo, trong
dd bdn ve doi.mdi md hinh tdng trudng kinh
tl. Nhiiu hgc gid cung phdn tich vd di den
nhan xdt md hinh tdng trudng kinh te khdng
cdn phil hgp. Tren thue te, thay ddi md hinh
tdng trudng kinh tl la mgt hidn tugng binh
thudng, dien ra thudng xuyen, khdng chi d
nude ta, md cdn d nhieu nude trdn thd gidi,
khi md hinh tang trudng kinh te dd chgn
khdng edn phu hgp vdi nhiing quan diem ca
bdn ve tang trudng kinh te.
Cho din nam 1980, tdng trudng kinh te
vdn dugc coi !a myc tidu hang dau cua tdt cd
cac qudc gia. Hau het cdc qudc gia trude dd
deu t^p trung mgi ngudn lye eho tdng trudng

thdng qua tich liiy tai sdn ed dinh, thu hut ddu
ta nude ngodi, khai thdc tai nguydn thien
nhidn... Tdng trudng cao dugc coi la bidu
hien tich eye trong mue tidu phdt triln kinh
te. Tuy nhidn, van de ddt ra Id phdi duy tri
duge tdng trudng cao trong ddi hgn, trong sd
cdc md hinh tdng trudng kinh tl dd bidt ddn,
md hinh tdng trudng kinh tl bin vihig ed
nhidu uu diim, ndn duge lya chgn ldm md
hinh tdng trudng kinh te ehu dao eho thdi ky
2011-2020. Vi thi, bdi viit ndy se Idm ro
them ngi dung ciia md hinh tang trudng kinh
td bin vihig, nhflng kich bdn lya chgn, vd
thyc trgng bin vQng kinh tl.
1. Khai quat ve md hinh tang tnrdng
kinh te
Mo hinh tdng trudng kinh te dugc hieu la
mgt cdch dien dgt quan diem co ban nhdt vd
tdng trudng kinh te thdng qua ede bien so
kinh te va mdi lidn h? giiia chiing, vd the chi
QUAN LY KINH T£ I


f J ^ H I l l NGHI£N CIJ^I TRAO D6I
kinh te dam bdo cho qudn ly vd v^n hdnh h?
thdng kinh tl dd. Cdc biin s6 kinh tl co bdn d
day Id cdc yiu to ddu vdo ciia qud trinh sdn
xudt, hi§u qud qudn ly nhd nude, phdn phoi
thu nhgp vd phan ph6i ca hgi. Chdt lugng
tdng trudng chi Id thude do hi^u qud ciia md

hinh tdng trudng kinh tl.
a) Ddu vdo cua mo hinh tdng trudng kinh
te: Cdc I;? thuylt kinh te hgc tdn eo diin vd ly
thuylt tdng trudng mdi deu khdng dinh
nhihig yiu to tham gia tryc tiip vdo qud trinh
tdng trudng Id lao dgng, tdi sdn c6 djnh, \hn
con ngudi, von tdi nguydn va tien bg cdng
ngh§. Trong dd, tiln bg cdng ngh? mgt mdt
dnh hudng tdi hi^u qud sii dyng vd ndng suat
ciia cdc yiu tt> cdn Igi, mdt khde ddng gdp
vao tdng ndng sudt cdc yeu to.
Neu nhu tdng trudng kinh td chii yeu dya
vdo ngudn tdi nguyen thien nhien ho^c tdi sdn
cd dinh thi de duy tri dugc toe dd tdng trudng
eao trong ddi han Id mdt thdch thiie rdt Idn
bdi vi ngudn tai nguydn thidn nhidn vd ngudn
tdi sdn cd dinh ludn ludn Id hiiu hgn. Mdt
khde, khai thdc qud miic ngudn tdi nguydn vd
phdt tridn cac nganh cdng nghidp dua vdo tdi
nguyen se dan den gidm nguon tai nguydn cd
ve sd lugng vd chdt lugng.
Ngugc Igi vdi md hinh tdng trudng dya
vao tai nguydn thidn nhidn vd tdi sdn co
dinh, la md hinh tdng trudng dya vdo cdng
nghd, thudng it bi han chd vd qui md cung
nhu ve thdi gian phdt tridn. Bdi vi, cdng
nghe cd tinh chat gdn nhu mgt hang hda
cdng egng. Vi?c sir dyng m$t logi cdng nghg
cy thi cua mgt ngudi ndy, edng ty ndy hay
qudc gia ndy khdng lam hgn chi co h^i su

dung eong ngh? dd ciia ngudi khde, edng ty
khde hay qudc gia khde.
b) Phdn phoi thu nhgp vd phdn phdi ca
hoi. Nhd kinh te hgc ngudi My Simon
Ku2:nets cho rdng qua trinh phan phoi thu
nhdp qua cdc thdi ky phdt triln kinh tl cua
cac quoc gia cd thi bidu dien tren mgt dudng
cong hinh chii U ngugc. Theo dng, trong giai
QQ QUAN Lt KINH TE

LUA CHON MO HlNH TANG TRL/dNG KINH T^...

dogn ddu tien cua qud trinh phdt trien, khi md
ddu tu vdo tdi sdn e6 dinh vdn Id dgng lye
chinh eiia qud trinh tdng trudng kinh tl thi bdt
binh ddng cd xu hudng tdng len. Hon niia, bdt
binh ddng cd thi thiic ddy tdng trudng bdi khi
dd ket qud tdng trudng dugc phan ph^i cho
nhthig ai cd tilt ki?m vd ddu tu nhiiu nhdt.
Mgt khi qud trinh tdng trudng dd dgt din trinh
dO chin mu^i, miie dg bat binh ddng s6 ddn
ddn gidm di. Ldc dd xd h$i cd diiu ki^n dl
thyc hi$n qud trinh phan phoi Igi, do dd, thu
nhgp vd phiie Igi xd h0i ed xu hudng dugc
phdn phoi cdng bdng hon. Nhu vgy, theo gia
thuylt ndy, bdt binh ddng gidm di ed the Id
mgt dau hi$u cho thdy chat lugng tdng trudng
dd dugc nang Idn. Tuy vdy, trong rdt nhiiu
nghien ciiu thyc tl, kdt qud Igi khdng d^ng
nhat vdi gid thuydt ndy. Nhiiu nude du dd dgt

dugc trinh dg phdt trien cao hodc rdt cao nhu
My vd Anh nhung bat binh ddng van ed xu
hudng tdng len chir khdng giam di nhu gia
thuylt ciia Kuznets.
De gidi quyet bdt Igi nay, cac nude phdt
tridn dd dp dyng nhiiu bi^n phdp khde nhau,
true tiep (qua chinh sdch tdi phan phoi) va
gidn tiep (qua chinh sdch tdi phdn phdi co
hgi). Cac nude nhu My, Anh cd phdn thidn ve
dp dyng cdc bign phdp tryc tiip, trong khi cac
nude cdng nghi$p d Chdu Au thyc hi^n ci 2
bien phdp: tryc tiip (thdng qua thul thu nh^
ca nhdn, trg edp) vd gidn tiep (cung edp cac
dich vy giao dye, y td iiham tgo ca h§i cho
ngudi cd thu nhgp thdp tham gia vao qud
trinh tdng trudng).
c) Hiiu qud qudn ly cua nhd nude: Mot
trong nhihig yiu to quan trgng cd tdm dnh
hudng mgnh me din tdng trudng kinh tl cua
m3i quoc gia dd Id ndng lyc eiia bd mdy nha
nude md trude hit Id ndng lyc xay dung thi
chd vd thyrc hien vai trd quan ly eua minh.
Hi^u qud eua qudn ly nhd nude duge the hien
thdng qua miic dg ddng gdp cita nd vdo qua
trinh tdng trudng.
Cdc tieu chi thudng dugc su dyng dl d ^
gid khd ndng ddng gdp cOa nhd nude vdo qua
trinh tdng trudng Id su 6n dinh kinh tl vT m6.
Stf 45(1+2/2012)



LUA CHON MO HlNH T A N G TRLTSNG KINH T^,.,

on dinh chinh tii, xay dyng thi chi vd hi?u lyc
cua he thong jphdp lugt. Cac nhd kinh t l hgc ed
didn vd tan cd didn thudng ddnh gid khdng eao
vai tid ciia nhd nude ddi vdi qud tiinh tdng
trudng. Hg dd cao vai tro tu didu tilt ciia thi
tiirdng va cho rdng sy thdt bgi ciia thi trudng
ehi la ngogi Id. Gan ddy, vai tio cua nhd nude
tix)ng dieu tilt kinh t l vd do dd Id dnh hudng
eua nhd nude d6i vdi qud trinh tdng trudng ed
xu hudng ngdy cang dugc ddnh gid eao. Quan
didm eua nhd kinh t l hgc Stiglitz Id mgt vi du.
Ong cho rdng, sy diiu tidt ciia thi trudng ehi
thue su dem lai hi?u qud trong nhirng diiu kidn
nhdt dinh (chdng han trong dieu ki?n thi hudng
cgnh tranh hodn hdo). Vi v$y, trong nhiiu
tiirdng hgp sy phan bo hidu qud ede nguon lyc
sdn xudt vd cdc kit qua ddu ra ehi ed thi dgt
duge nhd sy can thidp cua ehinh phd. Nhidu
nghien eiiu da chi ra t ^ ddng tich eye cua qudn
ly nha nude tdi chdt lugng tdng trudng. Theo
hg, tdng trudng dugc duy tri tiong mgt thdi
gian tirong ddi dai d mgt miic eao hgp ly ed thi
de dgt dugc hon ddi vdi mdt nude cd the chd vd
quy dinh minh bgeh, rd rdng, tinh thue thi ciia
he thdng phdp luat cao, co bg may nhd nude it
quan lieu, thmn nhiing, ddng thdi tao didu kidn
cho ngudi ddn thyc hidn tdt cdc quyen cua hg.

d) Chdt luong tdng trudng la thude do
tdng hgp eua md hinh tang trudng kinh te,
dugc thd hien d hai khia canh: Toe do tdng
trudng cao duy tri trong ddi han va tdng
trudng ed ddng gdp tryc tiep vdo phdt tridn
bin viing (tgo ra nhidu viec ldm, gdp phdn
xda ddi gidm nghdo, tdng ndng suat lao dgng,
hidn dgi hda nen kinh td...).
Phdn loai md hinh tdng trudng kinh te:
Thomas vd ede cgng su (2000) da chia cdc md
hinh tang trudng kinh t l thdnh ba logi: md
hinh tdng tiordng tri trd, md hitih tdng trudng
ndng' vd md hinh tang trudng bin viing.
(1) Mo hinh tdng trudng tri ti-$: Md hinh
nay thudng thdy d cac nude dang phdt tridn,
Dgc didm ciia md hinh la cd nhiing giai doan
quy md kinh td dugc m d rdng vdi t6c dd tdng

' N6i mot cdch di hiiu Id mS hinh tang trudng nhi^m
kj vi Igi ich nh6m

So 45 (1+2/2011)

NGKIEN Clh) TRAO Odl P T T T l

trudng nhanh, nhung tgi nhidu thdi k^ khde,
tdng trudng kinh te thdp. Trong ddi han, nin
kinh t l suy gidm, tri tr§. Nguyen nhdn la do
dau tu thdp, ddn trdi vd ddu ta cong vdo cdc
loai hinh tdi sdn ed hi$u qud dau tu thdp,

khdng ed siie lan tda.
(2) Mo hinh tdng trudng nong. Md hinh
loai ndy ed 3 ddu hi^u id: tdng trudng dya qud
nhiiu vdo ngudn tdi sdn c6 dinh, Igi nhudn
thu dugc tir khai thde vd bdn tdi nguyen
khodng sdn sir dyng Idng phi; Tdng trudng
nhung phdi tid gid ddt eho vi?c hiiy hogi tai
nguydn thidn nhien vd mdi trudng sinh thdi;
Tdng trudng dua vdo ngudn lao dgng re, chat
lugng thap va khdng cd sy dau tu thda dang
vdo phdt trien nhan lye. H$ qud Id tdng
trudng khdng ben virng, dae bidt la doi vdi
cdc nude ngheo, cd quy md ngan sdch nhd va
qudn ly ddu tu kem hidu qua.
(3) Mo hinh tdng tiudng ben vicng. Cac
qudc gia thudc md hinh ndy thudng duy tri
dugc tdc dg tdng trudng hdp ly trong mdt
thdi gian tuong ddi ddi. Nhd nude thudng
chii trgng ddu ta cho cdc ngdnh, ITnh vuc cd
tac dgng lan tda tich cue tdi cdc ngdnh khde
vd do do tdi todn bd nen kinh te nhu dau tu
cho gido dye, y te vd bdo v$ ngudn tai
nguydn thidn nhidn. CJ md hinh ndy, ddu tu
edng tap trung cho phdt tridn khoa hgc cdng
ngh^ vd von con ngudi, ede ngudn luc co
bdn (tdi sdn co dinh vd tdi ehinh, vdn nhdn
luc, tdi nguydn thien nhidn) dugc tich luy
cdn d6i vd duy tri duge t6e dg tang trudng
dn dinh. Tdng trudng dn dinh, bdn vung
thudng mang Igi Igi ich cho ngudi ngheo,

bdi vi khi kinh td suy thodi, ngudi hi thiet
hai nhieu nhat, ehinh Id ngudi ngheo.
2. Kinh nghidm chuyen doi mo hinh
tdng trirdng & T r u n g Quoc vd bai hoc doi
vol Vi^t Nam
Theo ddnh gid cua tac gid Trdn Hai Hgc
(2011), Trung Qu6c da sii dung hai md Iiinh
tang trudng kinh t l . Md hinh thii nhdt "edi
cdch m d eiia kinh te" bdt dau tir nam 1978 va
kdt thiie vdo nam 1992, chiing kidn sdn xuat

QUAN Lt KINH T£ I


^jl^l^

NGHlfeN Clhl TRAO DO'I

bung ra vd tdng nhanh trong gdn mgt th^p
nien, trude khi vdp phdi khiing hodng vl ddu
CO vd Igm phdt, ddn din phong trdo phdn
khdng tham nhiing vd ddi ddn chii, bj chinh
quydn ddn dp tgi Thidn An Mdn.
Md hinh tdng trudng thii hai bdt ddu tir
ndm 1993 vd phdt huy tdc dyng tot cho din
2005. Tir ndm 2005 den nay md hinh tdng
trudng nay ed nhiiu hgn ehe, vd dang trong
thdi ky chuyin doi. Bdt ddu eua md hinh tdng
trudng ndy duge ddnh ddu bdng chuyin thi
sdt mien Nam ciia Ddng Tiiu Binh vd kdo ddi

eho din ngdy nay. Id nhflng th^p nidn trong
dd GDP eua Trung Quoc tdng nhanh nhdt.
(1) Cau true cua mo hinh tdng trvdng
Trung Quoc: Tir ddu thdp nien 1990, md
hinh tdng trudng ciia nen kinh tl Trung Qudc
gdm ba mdt gdn chdt vdi nhau thdnh h?
thdng: Tdng nhanh ddu tu, kim hdm tidu dimg
ndi dia vd day mgnh xudt khdu.
Tdng nhanh ddu lu: Ddc diem eua mo
hmh tdng trudng thdi ky 1993-2005 (phuong
thiic tdng trudng) Id sii dyng nhidu vdn vd tgo
ra it cdng dn vide ldm. Ty le dau ta trong
GDP da tdng khdng ngimg, tir 25% ndm 1990
len din 42% ndm 2008. Trong khi GDP cdc
ndm 1992-2006 tdng binh quan 10%, vi?c
ldm chi tdng 1%. H? qud Id, ty I? thdt nghidp
Idn tdi 9,4%, theo udc tinh ndm 2008 cda
Vien han lam khoa hgc xd h^i Trung Qudc.
Sy ton tgi cua dao qudn that nghi?p ndy gdy
siie dp len miic luong, vi thi tdng luong
khdng edn ty I? vdi tdng ndng sudt lao dgng.
Kim hdm tieu diing ngi dja dugc do bdng
ty 1? tidu dung eua cdc hg gia dinh trong GDP
khong ngimg gidm, tir xdp xi 50% ndm 1990
xudng edn 35% ndm 2008. Do nhieu nguydn
nhdn, song nguyen nhan chu yeu la do, mgt
mat, Igi nhudn cua ede doanh nghi?p tdng
nhung khdng dugc phan chia cho ede hg gia
dinh ed ddng. Mdt khde, ngdn sdch nhd nude
tdng thu ma khdng phan phoi lai cho cdc hg

gia dinh thu nhap thdp. Ndi each khac, chinh
sdch tdi khda ciia nhd nuoc Trung Qudc la
QUAN Lt KINH T£

Ll/A CHON MO HlNH T A N G TRL/dNG KINH T^...

chgn tdng ddu tu edng, chii yiu Id xdy co sd
hg tdng, thay vl phdt triln tieu dimg t$p thi,
nhu Id cdc djch vy gido dye, y te hay xd hdi.
Ddy mgnh xudt khdu: Kim hdm tidu diing
nOi dja dk tich luy nhanh ta bdn cdn cd nghia
Id Trung Qu6c chgn phuong thirc tdng trudng
hudng ngogi, di tim ngudi tidu dung d nude
ngodi vd phdt triln mgt nin kinh te tuy thu$c
vdo xudt khdu vd khd ndng xudt sieu. Phan
xudt khdu trong GDP ciia Trung Qudc da
khdng ngimg tdng cho din eu0e khiing hodng
tdi ehinh thi gidi ndm 2008. Tir ndm 1997
den ndm 2007, ty I? xuat khdu tdng so vdi
GDP tdng tir 19% len mire ky lyc 37%, ty Id
nhdp khdu tdng tir 15% len 29% GDP, tiong
dd ridng vdt li^u vd linh ki^n nhgp khdu cho
edng nghidp gia cdng vd Idp rdp hdng xudt
khdu Id 12%, phan xuat sidu, dd tdng len gap
ddi, ta 4% len 8% GDP.
Chien luge chiem thi truong tien the giai,
Cdc doanh nghi?p dung chidn luge eanh tranh
gid cd va duge nhd nude ho trg bdng hdng
logt chinh sdch ed tinh tigng thuong: Chinh
sdch nhan cdng re, kim hdm tidn luong dl no

tdng cham hon ndng sudt lao d$ng; Chinh
sdch ndng lugng rd, kim gid eiia xdng ddu,
than vd di?n d miie thdp gid tgo; Chinh sdch
tin dyng rd, kim giii Idi sudt thyc d miic am;
Chinh sdch hoi dodi dinh gid thdp ddng Nhan
dan t? (NDT) nhdm hg gid hang cua Trung
Qudc trdn cdc thj trudng nude ngodi; Chinh
sdch uu ddi thul doi vdi cdc hogt ddng san
xudt cho xuat khdu; Chinh sdch nhgp cong
ngh^ dl sdn xudt trong n$i dja thay cho nhap
hdng...
(2) Dieu kifn de chuyen hda md hinb
tdng tnrdng kinh tl d Trung Qu6c
Mgt trong nhiing didu ki^n Id cd sy thiia
nhan cua nhQng ngudi diing ddu nha nude.
Thue vgy, ndm 2007, thii tadng 6n Gia Bao
cdng nh$n rdng "van dl Idn nhdt ciia nin kinh
tl Trung Qudc Id tdng trudng mdt 6n dinh,
mat cdn d6i, thilu diiu ph6i vd khdng bin
vflBg". Trung Qudc khdng thd duy tri mfl
86145(1+2/2012)


LLTA CHON MO HINH TANG TRU"6NG KINH

iL.

hinh kinh tl da ldm ndn thdnh tich tdng
trudng cua hai muoi ndm qua do mdt loat
nguydn nhan: Bdt binh ddng vd bdt eong ngdy

cang tdng ldm eho xa hOi trd nen bdt 6n; Cdu
nude ngoai cd xu hudng khyng Igi, khiln
tucmg quan giua ddu tu vd tidu dimg ngi dia
cang mdt edn ddi; Cdc chinh sdch hi$n hdnh
vd tidn luong vd phiic Igi, vl tien t? vd hoi
dodi khong cdn du siie diiu ph6i nin kinh tl
dang du thira edng sudt sdn xudt; Nguon nude
va tdi nguyen thien nhidn dang hi khai thdc
qua dO, khien phuong thiic tdng trudng khdng
thd bin vung; Trong ddi hgn, dan so Trung
Qudc trd len gid, vd khdng cdn Igi thi vl gid
nhan eong rd.
Vdi nhiing nguydn nhdn ndu tren, muon
eho ndn kinh td giii dd tdng trudng, nhdt la
sau khi cugc khiing hodng tdi chinh thi
gidi biing nd, Trung Qudc khong ed gidi
phdp ndo khde la thay ddi phuong thiic
tdng trudng.
(3) Bai hgc

Bfi'itroi

NGH|£N CIJU TRAO

3. Cac nguydn tdc lya chgn mo hinh
tdng tru-dng trong giai doan 2011-2020
Trong cdc buoi h^i thdo ban vl chiln
luge phdt triln kinh tl trong giai dogn
2011-2020, cdc dien gia khong dua ra
nguyen tdc lya chgn md hinh tdng trudng

kinh tl, song tong hgp nhflng y kiln trong
nude vd ngodi nude cd thi khdi qudt lai
thdnh ba nguyen tdc sau ddy:
- Chuyin hda todn bg md hinh kinh tl, tir
phuong thiic tdng trudng I? thugc vdo ddu tu
sang phuong thire tdng trudng mdi, md dgng
lyc chinh Id tdng hi?u qua ddu ta;
- Chuyen dich eo eau sdn xuat tir nhung
ngdnh cdng nghi$p sur dung nhiiu vdn vd
khdng tdn dyng lao dgng du thira sang nhflng
ngdnh cdng nghidp gan vdi phdt tridn dich vy
vd sir dung nhieu lao ddng hon;
- Tgo ra nhieu co hdi vd phdn phdi co hgi
tren co sd ddy manh phdt tridn nhdn lyc, tdng
ddu ta edng cho gido due vd y tl.

Tir nhiing phdn tich ndu tren ed the nit ra
bdi hgc kinh nghifm ddi vdi chuydn ddi md
hinh tdng trudng kinh td d Viet Nam, dd Id:

4. Cac kjch ban lua chgn mo hinh tang
trudng kinh tl vd yeu cau doi vol mo hinh
tang trudng kinh tl ben vung

Thic nhdt, phdi cd sy thira nhdn eua lanh
dao edp cao trong bg mdy qudn ly nhd nude
ve nhiing han chd cua md hinh kinh te hien
tgi. Kinh te Id thude do eiia ehinh tri, thira
nhdn su bdt dn vd kinh td, ve thyc chdt Id
thua nhdn tuong quan lyc lugng xd hdi va

nhiing lyc cdn trd tit trong hd thdng chinh
tri. Vi thd su thira nhan eua lanh dao edp
cao Id khdi ddu eho ddi mdi md hinh tang
trudng kinh td.

Vdi nhflng nguyen tde lua chgn neu trdn,
trong sd ede md hinh tdng trudng kinh tl
hien ed trdn quy md todn thi gidi, thi md
hinh tdng trudng kinh tl bin vflng Id phu
hgp nhdt, vi the tu tudng phdt tridn bin viing
da trd thdnh y tudng xuyen sudt trong ede
kich bdn phdt tridn kinh tl - xa hgi trong thdi
ky din ndm 2020 vd xa hon, Cd thd dua ra
ede kich bdn lya chgn md hinh tang trudng
kinh td nhu sau:

Thic hai, cd dp lue Idn din ndn kinh tl, cd
nguy CO khdng duy tri dugc dn dinh kinh tl
trong ddi ban vd ed nhieu ddu hieu nen kinh
td roi vao trgng thdi tdi td, gidng nhu Hy Lgp,
Tay Ban Nha, Italia chdng hgn.

•* NIU chgn md hinh (1) tdng trudng kinh
td tri trd, thudng cd tde do tdng trudng thdp
vd khdng lin dinh. Diiu ndy sd ngdn can no
lyc gidm doi nghdo cua ed nude, ddu tu vdo
ngudn lye eon ngudi thdp, khai thde va su
dyng tdi nguyen thidn nhidn khong hieu qua.
Md hinh (1) thudng xdy ra khi ehinh phu yiu
kem vd tham nhung. Diiu ndy khidn ty Id ddu


Thic ba, thay d6i ta duy, dung hda dugc
nhiing Igi ich trude mdt vdi Igi ich lau ddi
mang tinh todn eye.
Sir 45 (1+2/2011)

QUAN LY KINH TE


i r o ! | NGHllN Clrtl TRAO Dpi

tu thap vd chi tieu cdng khdng dugc sir dyng
vdo cdc dy dn mang Igi hi$u qud cao nhdt. Vl
CO ban, kich bdn ndy van cd thi xdy ra, song
vdi xdc sudt thdp;
- Neu chgn md hinli tdng trudng ndng (2)
cd khd quan hon so vdi mo hinh (1) ndu Ircii.
song, hdu aud tdng trudng ndng nl, tdng
trudng c6 the di kem vdi cdi thi$n phuc Igi xd
hgi vd gidm ddi nghdo. Nhung md hinh tdng
trudng (2) phy IhuOc vdo sy iing hg hay ddu
tu eiia edng ehting, md dieu ndy thudng Id
klid duy tri on dinh trong ddi hgn. Thyc ra,
md hinh tdng trudng kinh te hi^n nay, dang
rat giong md hinh (2), vi thi khdng thi lya
chgn kich bdn ndy;
- Neu lya chgn md hinh tdng trudng kinh
td bdn viing, thi khde vdi ede md hinh tdng
trudng trdn, md hinh tdng trudng (3) Id tot
ban cd cho vi?c cdi thidn phiic Igi xd hgi va

gidm ddi nghdo. Xet ve khia cgnh chat lugng
tdng trudng, rd rang Id trong ba md hinh trinh
bdy d tren, md hinh thii ba ed chat lugng cao
hon ca, \ a dd ciing la md hinh nhdn loai dang
hudng tdi. Vi thd, lira chgn md hinh tdng
trudng kinh te ben viing la hgp ly nhat.
Tren thyc td, mgt md hinh tdng trudng
kinh td dugc ggi la bdn vflng, neu chi sd kinh
td bdn vung duong va Idn hon 0,2. Chi sd
kinh te ben vihig duge xdy dyng ta sau chi
tidu kinh te quan trgng sau ddy:
Mgt Id, tde dg tdng trudng kinh tl, dugc
do bdng tdng sdn phdm quoc ngi (GDP), ddnh
gid su thay ddi hdng ndm cua GDP. Day la
ehi tidu kinh td ngdn han phdn dnh tdng hgp
nhdt cdc hogt dgng kinh tl, kha ndng tao ra
vi?c ldm vd khd ndng tgo ra ngudn tdi ehinh
detidng;
Hai Id, ty 1$ ng, duge do bdng tdng sd ng
cua ehinh phu so vdi GDP, day Id tieu chudn
hdi ty eiia Lidn minh Kinh tl vd Tidn t?
Maastricht, ehi tidu trung hgn vd ddi hgn phan
dnh t6ng hgp cdc hogt ddng tdi chinh cdng;
Ba Id, tham hyt hgdc bgi thu ngdn sdch
nha nude duge dg bdng nhu cau vay rdng ciia
^

OUAN Lt KINH Tl

Ll/A CHON MO HlNH TANG TRUdNG KINH Tg...


chinh phil, bdng tong thu ngdn sdch trir di
t6ng chi ngdn sdch vd trir di tdng so ng eua
ehinh phu phdi trd den hgn va trd Idi sudt, day
cung Id mOt trong nhflng tidu chudn hgi ty
eua Lidn minh Kinh te vd Tiln td Maastricht.
Nd Id chi tieu ngdn hgn ciia hoat d$ng tdi
chinh cdng;
Bdn la. ehi so cgnh tranh todn cdu (GCI)
do Hgi nghi kinh tl the gidi cdng bo. Ddy \k
ehi tieu tdng hgp, phdn dnh nin tdng kinh tl
vi md vd vT md eua cgnh tranh, duge xdc dinh
tir tgp hgp ede the chi, chinh sdch vd ede ydu
to xdc dinh miie ndng sudt cua mgt nude, ma
ndng suat xde djnh chdt lugng tdng trudng vi
ben vflng phdt tridn kinh te tiong ddi han. Vi
thi, cdn dua chi tieu ndy vdo ehi s6 bin viing
kinh tl, do nd Id chi tidu ddi hgn ciia sy cgnh
tranh vd tilm ndng tdng trudng trong taong
lai ciia mgt nen kinh te;
Ndm Id, ehi sd nhdn thiie tham nhiing
(Corruption perceptions index - CPI) hay
minh bach qudc td, duge do bdng miie dp
nhdn thiie ve tham nhung trong ITnh vuc
cdng. Nd duge xdy dung dya tren viec xii ly
cac phidu khdo sdt lay y kiln cua 13 logi
ehuyen gia lap chinh sdch phdt tridn vd khdo
sdt kinh doanh. Day Id chi so co bdn eiia qu^
tri qudc gia hodc danh gid mirc dg tuan thii
cdc quy phgm phdp iuat, ngi quy chung de

tdng hi?u qua cdc ITnh vye edng;
Sdu Id, chi phi sdp tdi do Ido hda dan so,
la dy tinh chi tidu ddi hgn, bao gdm luong
huu, chdm sdc siie khde, chdm sdc dai hgn,
gido dye va phy cap that nghiep. Dua dy tinh
nay vdo tfnh ehi so bin viing kinh tl bdi vi
day la chi so rat dai hgn cho thdy dp lyc len
hogt dgng tdi chinh cdng.
5. B$ chi tieu ddnh gid chat lu^g mo
hinh tdng trvdng kinh te ben virng
Tren thyc td, mgt so nha kinh tl ndi tidng
nhu Lucas, Sen vd Stiglitz vd mgt s6 trung
tdm phdn tich chinh sdch kinh tl da dua ra
mdt s6 chi tidu cy thd dd ddnh gid chat lugng
cua md hinh tdng trudng kinh tl, ggi tdt la
chdt lugng tdng tivdng.

Stf 45(1+2/2012)


LL/A CHON MO HINH T A N G T R L / S N G KINH T ^ .

Chi s6 kinh te bin vicng: Chi sd kinh tl
ben vung do Trung tdm ehinh sach kinh tl
Chau Au dua ra cd uu diim la nd cho phep
ddnh gid ddng thdi bdn vflng ve kinh tl trong
ngdn han, trung han va cd trong ddi hgn. Chi
sd nay dugc xdy dung dya trdn 6 ehi so thdnh
phdn: thdm hut ngdn sdch, ng qudc gia, tdng
trudng kinh tl, ndng lye cgnh tranh, qudn tri

qudc gia (hodc ehi sd tham nhiing) vd ehi phi
cho su lao hda ddn so. Nhin chung, nhflng chi
sd ndu tren duge chgn dl phdn dnh sy cdn
bdng gifl-a dp lyc ngdn han, tiimg hgn vd ddi
hgn ddi vdi su bin vflng kinh te;
Chi so cgnh tianh kinh te: Tdng trudng
phdi dam bdo ndng cao hieu qud kinh tl vd
ndng cao ndng lye cgnh tranh eiia nin kinh tl;
Bo chi tieu ddnh gid chdt luang mo hinh
tdng trudng kinh te gdm ede ehi tidu co thi
lugng hda: (1) Tang trudng kinh tl trong ddi
hgn; (2) Ndng sudt lao dgng xd hdi; (3) Hieu
qud sii dyng vdn dau tu (ICOR); (4) Nang
sudt cdc ydu td tdng hgp (TFP); (5) Chuydn
dich CO cau kinh td theo hudng tang thu nhdp
vd ddutait;
Mgt sd chi tidu dinh tinh: (6) Tdng trudng
phdi di kem vdi phat trien, giii mdi trudng
bdn vung; (7) Tdng trudng phdi dgt duge myc
tidu cdi thien phiic Igi xa hgi vd giam ddi
ngheo; (8) Tang trudng phdi di kem vdi vide
hdtigeho thd ehi dan chu ludn ddi mdi, din
lugt nd thiic ddy tdng trudng vdi t>' Id eao
hon; (9) Ddm bdo trdnh duge nhiing eii sdc
bdt Igitabdn ngodi.
6. Nhung gia thiet cho thdi ky 20112020 vd ket qua lua chgn
Mdt trong nhflng gid thidt quan trgng bao
triun eho ed thdi ky tdng trudng kinh te Id
chgn md hinh tdng trudng kinh td ben vihig.
Ndu gid thidt ndu trdn duge ehdp nhdn, thi

nhflng tinh ndo dugc lya chgn ldm md hinh
tdng trudng kinh td bdn viing eho cdc tinh
khde hgc tap la mgt lua chgn edn bdn ddn. De
giai quylt van dd neu tren, nhdm nghien eiiu
da Idp ehi sd bdn vflng kinh td edp tinh va xdp

$6 45(1+2/2011)

NGHllN CliU TRAO odl I B f f f l
hang ede tinh theo chi sd bin vflng kinh tl.
Chi sd bin viing kinh tl cap tinh dugc xdy
dyng bdng edeh cgng (khong cd trgng s6)
diim cua tat cd cdc chi so thanh phdn;
Tir thyc te so Ii?u va y nghia kinh tl ciia
cac chi tidu kinh te vd ehi so cgnh tranh edp
tinh, nhdm nghidn ciiu chgn 3 ehi tieu dl
tinh chi s6 bin vfl-ng kinh tl edp tinh Id: tdc
dg tdng GDP ede tinh (chinh xdc hon Id
tdng gid tri gia tdng), ty I^ thdm hyt ngdn
sdch (bdng t6ng ehi trie di tdng thu khdng
tinh phdn ho trg tir trung uong), vd chi so
cgnh tranh edp tinh;
Sd li?u dd tinh chi so bin vflng kinh tl
edp tinh: toe do tdng GDP vd ty le tham hut
ngdn sdch duge thu thdp vd tinh todn tir sd
lieu trong nidn gidm thdng ke cdc tinh nam
2010, chi so canh tranh cap tinh duge thu
thap
ta
trang

web http;//www.
pcivietnam.org. Theo kinh nghidm phan
nhdm ben vflng kinh td cua Trung tam chinh
sdch Chau Au, cdc tinh dugc chia thdnh 5
nhdm, ndu chi sd bin viing kinh tl (ESI) thda
man: (1) Ben vung cao nhdt, niu 0,4 < ESI
< 1; (2) Bin vung cao, niu 0,19 < ESI <
0,4); (3) Bdn vung trung binh, ndu 0,0 < ESI
< 0,19; (4) Nguy co mdt bin viing, ndu -0,3
< ESI < 0,0); (5) Mdt bin vimg, niu -1,0 <
ESI < -0,3);
Kdt qud tinh todn cho thdy, kinh td ed nude
dang ndm trdn ranh gidi giiia nin kinh tl ed
nguy CO mdt bdn viing vd bin viing trung binh
d miie thdp, ddng thdi miic dg bin vflng cd xu
hudng gidm, ndm 2009 chi sd bin vung kinh
tl ed nude thdp ban so vdi ndm 2006 (Kinh tl
vaDybdo, so 510/2011).
Vdi cdch phdn nhdm ndu trdn, tiong tdng
sd 63 tinh ed 1 tinh thudc nhdm bin vung cao
nhdt Id tinh Binh Duong, vd khdng hi tyt
hgng. Ket qud phdn tich dinh lugng phu hgp
vdi phdn tich dinh tinh. Trdn thuc tl, Binh
Duong thu hiit dugc ddu tu, phat triln kinh
td. Mgt phdn la do y tri chinh tri, nid diing
dau Id bi thu tinh uy. \^ vgy, ed thd chgn
OUAN Lt KINH TE


f^^^ NOHieN ciiu TBAO fli\


Binh Dircmg 14m mo hinh ting trudng Icinh ti
bin vimg cho cdc tinh c6 dieu ki?n phdt trien
kinh ti tuong dong nhu Hdi Duong, Hi Nam,
VTnh Phuc, Bdc Ninh, bdi vi cdc tinh ndy
cung gin thdnh pho Idn Id thii do Hd NOi, d k
Id cdc tinh khdng c6 bi^n;
Thdnh pho Dd Ndng va Qudng Ninh c6
the l\ta clign ldm mo hinh tdng trudng kinh te
hin vung cho cdc tinh ven bien;
Ket qud tinh todn cho thiy, phdn tich djnh
lugng cd s\r bi^n dpng Idn, vi th^, nhOng kit
qud dinh luting chi ddng vai trd ho trg cho
phan tich dinh tinh.
7. Ket luan vd kien nghj
Tir nhthig phan tich neu tren, cho th^y
chdt lugmg tdng trudng the hi?n chat lugtng
cua cdc mo hinh tdng trudng kinh te. Ndi chat
lupng tdng trudng Id mpt mo hinh tdng
trudng kinh te thi chua dii cdn cii, can phdi
nghien cuu them.
Trong s6 cdc mo hinh tdng trudng kinh te,
md hinh tdng trudng kinh te ben vihig c6
nhi8u iru diim vuot trpi, lira chpn ldm mo
hinh tdng trudng cho thdi icy 2011-2020 Id
phil hpp vdi quan diem tdng trudng nhanh,
bin vimg dd dupe Dai hpi dang todn quoc
thong qua.
Kit qud tinh todn budc diu cho thay, mo
hinh tdng trudng da chpn chp thdi ky tir khi

ddi mdi din nay khong cdn phil hpp, nen
kinh tl dang ndm tren ranh gidi cua ben vihig
kinh tl trung binh thap vdi nguy ca de dpa

m QUAN LY KINH Tl

LUA CHON MO HlNH TANG TRlffiNG KINH Tg...

mat bin vihig, vd cd xu hudng mirc dp ben
vthig gidm. Nhiiu tinh trong ca nude c6 nguy
CO tdng trudng kinh tl khong bin vihig. Yiu
ti CO bdn din din tdng trudng kinh tl khdng
bin vDug Id do tham hyt ngdn sdch Idn trong
khi dd tec dO tdng trudng kinh te thdp vd chi
so minh b^ch thip.

TAI LIfU THAIVI KHAO
Tran Hdi H?c (2011), "Bdn ve su chuyin
hda mo hinh tdng trudng kinh tl ciia
Trung Qudc", Tap chi Th&i igi mai, si 23
thdng II, 2011.
HQI thao khoa hpc mo hinh tdng truong
kinh te cua Vi^t nam: Thuc trgng va lua
chgn cho giai dogn 2011- 2020, Ngdy
23/6, tai Ha Npi.
Nguyen Cdng My (2011), "Chi so bin
vihig kinh le cap tinh: Phuong phdp va
thu nghi?m", Tgp chi Kinh te vg Du Bdo,
S6510, ll/20li.
Vdn ki^n Dgi hgi dang toon quoc lan thu

XI (2010), Nxb Chinh tri Quoc gia, Hii
Npi,
Stiglitz Joseph (2002), Nhiing thach thik
ddi vai viec thtfc hien chien luge cua Viil
Nam, Vi^n Chiln lupc phat trien.
Thomas Vinod et. All ( 2000), The quality
of growth. Published for the World Bank,
Oxford University Press.

Stf 45 (1+2/211121