GE Energy
Power
Systems & Energy Course

Wind & Solar Overview
December 2016

Jason MacDowell
Allison Wik (GE Renewable Energy)


Global macro trends
Electricity demand … 2X by 2030
Population … 8 billion by 2025
Environment … ~40 countries have

added renewable targets in last 5 yrs

Security … heightened energy concerns
Changing energy needs driving new opportunities
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Three-speed world ...
Slow growth

Moderate growth

27 countries, $13 T GDP*
(1.1% avg. GDP growth)
Canada &
USA = 2.5%

100 countries, $39 T GDP
(3.3% avg. GDP growth)

West Europe
1.1%

Latin
America
4.3%

Africa
5.6%

High flyers
61 countries, $24 T GDP
(7.8% avg. GDP growth)

Central & East Europe
[CEE] 4.0%

Highlights
• GDP expected to grow
~$6 trillion ‘11 to ‘13

Asia & Pacific =

6.6%

Mid East
4.8%

• High flyers ~$3.3T or
55% of the increase
• W. Europe slowest
growing region … ~8%
of the global GDP 
Sources: Oxford Economics,
November 2011, and GE Energy GSP

Average global growth for 2012-13 is 4.2% per year
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Three-speed world pivots ...
Slow growth

Moderate growth

31 countries, $14 T GDP*
(0.2% avg. GDP growth)

96 countries, $38 T GDP
(2.4% avg. GDP growth)

Central & East Europe
[CEE] (4)%

Canada &
USA = 3%

High flyers
61 countries, $25 T GDP
(6.3% avg. GDP growth)

• World economy
generally slowing since
2014

West Europe
1.3%

Latin
America
1.5%

Africa
4.7%

Highlights

Asia & Pacific =
6.9%

Mid East

2.6%

• High flyers ~$2.8T or
60% of the increase
• Europe, Middle East and
Latin America slowest
growing regions …
~30% of the global GDP
Sources: McKinsey & Co, IMF, World
Bank, Oxford Economics and GE
Energy GSP

Average global growth for 2014-2015 is ~3% per year
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GLOBAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND OUTLOOK
Electricity Consumption
(TWh in ‘000s)

~31K

~24K
Developing

Developed


2014

2024

Growth Shifting to Developing
•4X faster electricity growth
55%+ of total electricity demand
•Fossil fuels still dominant
~65% of electricity production

Source: GE P&W Marketing, IEA 2014 World energy outlook, Oxford Economics

Developing markets drive electricity demand growth
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Global electric capacity additions
2010-2025, GW

W. Europe
N. America 10%
10%

China
40%

India
10%

3,900 GW Total
Installed Capacity*
2010
2025

5,220 GW
8,120 GW

The installed base will grow by 75% in the next 15 years
*Change in installed capacity includes capacity additions and retirements
Source: GE Energy Global Strategy & Planning
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Future trend … next decade

Renewable energy growth rate outshines all others
Global output

Growth in global energy use

375%

46%


300% 30%

4.3%

GDP

2011-2020
growth (%)
CAGR (%)

36%

14%

26%

1.5%

2.6%

3.5%

Oil

Nat gas

Coal

12%


Wind

Solar

2011 … $70.0 trillion
Notes & Sources:
• GDP in constant 2005 $ PPP, Oxford Economics
• Oil in barrels per day, FuelCOE base case forecast
• Natural Gas in cubic meters, FuelCOE base case forecast
• Coal in tonnes of oil equivalent, FuelCOE base case forecast
• Wind forecast from internal GE Energy estimate.
• Solar forecast from GTM Research
• Solar estimates range from 2011 to 2015
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2020 … $102.5 trillion

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GE Energy
Wind
industry overview

Power Systems Engineering Course
December 2015



Global wind resource @ 80m

= high wind speed areas
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China & EU lead policy-driven growth
North America
Drivers
US PTC/ITC/Grant + State RPS
CAN Provincial RPS/Targets
Opportunity
US State RPS ~40 GW wind ’11-20
US State RPS ~15 GW solar PV ’11-20
CAN ~15 GW wind ’11-20

Latin America
Drivers
BRZ … wind auctions
CHI … Nat’l RPS 10%/’24
Opportunity
~10 GW wind ’11-20

Europe

China


Drivers
EU Directive 20%/’20 (~33% elec)

Drivers
Nat’l wind goal 200 GW by ’20,
60-80% by 2050
Nat’l solar goal 10 GW by ’15,
50 GW by ’20
Nat’l RPS 3%/’10, 8%/’20

Opportunity
~140 GW wind ’11-20
~50 GW solar PV ’11-20

Opportunity
~150 GW wind ’11-20
~50 GW solar PV ’11-20

Mid East & Africa

India

Drivers
EGY … 20%/’20
JOR … 10%/’20
MOR … 20%/’20
S AFR … 13%/’20

Drivers

Wind Nat’l GBI
State RPO/FIT
Nat’l Solar Mission … 20 GW
by ’22

Opportunity
~10 GW wind ’11-20
~2 GW solar PV ’11-20

Opportunity
~20 GW wind ’11-20
~20 GW solar PV ’11-20

Asia Pacific
Drivers
AUS … Nat’l RPS 20%/’20
JAP … Nat’l RPS 1.6%/’14
KOR … Nat’l RPS 10%/’22
NZ … Nat’l RPS 90%/’25
VN … 5%/’20
TN … 10%/’22
Opportunity
~10 GW wind ’11-20

98 countries with renewable energy targets … ~2x since ’05
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Capacity Growth in United States

/>"Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), 2004-March 2014". US: Energy Information Administration
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Increase in installed capacity of renewables –
A global trend both historically and projected

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Projected global capacity addition year to year

Significant growth in installed solar and wind capacity
/>BNEF = Bloomberg New Energy Finance
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Wind … a mainstream source of power generation
Global wind installations

Wind changing the world …

Cumulative (GW)

308GW

Wind LCOE
(¢/kWh)*

~15

ECONOMIC
~10

cost of electricity 65%

153

92
~6
~5

Source: GE Marketing, GWEC, Navigant, REN21
*U.S. Unsubsidized

IMPACTFUL
4% of all power


RELIABLE
50%+ capacity factor
MAINSTREAM
+98% availability
Source IEA Annual Report 2012

Wind energy is a long-term infrastructure play
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Challenging times for wind OEMs
Op Profit ‘12 YTD
Selected wind competitors

$MM

Siemens plans €6B cost-cutting

Gamesa cuts 20% of workforce

*
OP %


(8)

(2)

(3)

Challenging times … technology differentiation critical
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Source: OEM public reports, GE Marketing

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II Internal
- For internal distribution only

(1)

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Wind challenges & opportunities



• Mainstream …  performance,  cost

• Intermittency … delivering power
when we need it

• Sizeable … 5% global generation by ‘14

• Policy uncertainty … U.S PTC, Europe 
• Transmission … grid-constraints &
wind co-location with load
• Siting … NIMBY, noise, wildlife

• Technology advancement …

taller towers, longer rotors & controls
• Clean & free fuel … and local benefits

Problem solving in a dynamic industry
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GE wind technology

486’

A single turbine …
• 100 ft longer than wing span of
a Boeing 747
• Can power 700 homes
• Total weight is ~300 tons
• 100m rotor … greater than a football field
• Largest rotor today is 150m!
• Tip speed = 200 MPH

Over 28,000 GE units installed globally
17

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Onshore vs Offshore technology
Onshore


Offshore

Total installed capacity YE ’10

~200 GWs

<5 GWs

Geographic focus

Global

Europe & APac

Average turbine size ‘12

1.8 MW

3.9 MW

Average farm size

80 MW

270 MW

Average wind speed

8.0 m/s


9.4 m/s

Availability

>98%

92%

Wind turbine / BOP split

~80/20

~50/50

Levelized cost of energy

~5¢/kWhr

~3x onshore

Offshore wind … a challenge-rich environment
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GE Renewables is a global business
EMEA

>7,000MW

Canada
>2,000MW

USA
>30,000MW

China
>1800MW

India
>450MW

Latin America
>1,400MW

APAC
>750MW

*as of 4Q 2014

Partnering with customers to drive strategic global growth …
over 50GW GE W TGs installed to date
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GE … committed to our customers’ success in
renewable energy for > 125 years
Flexible & diverse solutions to meet your needs:
Differentiated wind products & services,
delivering low cost energy solutions

25%

Hydro power solutions to optimize your assets,
from single components to full turnkey solutions
Extended portfolio of clean energy solutions
to position renewables as a mainstream power
source

30,000+

Global hydro
installs

40+

countries

wind turbines

370GW

installed

>20%

global renewable
power capacity

125+

years powering
the world

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GE and Renewable Energy … combining
our strengths
GE Energy Financial Services

GE Oil & Gas


Energy investing and financing

Offshore platforms/experience

GE Energy

GE Transportation

Controls, materials, technology
Fulfillment & logistics capability
Efficient supply chain management

Gearbox and power converter
technologies

GE Aviation
GE Global Research Centers

Aerodynamic and aero-acoustic
modeling expertise

China, India, US, Brazil and Europe

Product strategy
1. High reliability
2. Capacity factor leadership
3. Advanced integration
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