Dividend Discount Models
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Dividend Discount Models
Valuation: 중앙대학교 경영학부 박창헌 교수
One-Period DDM
• One-Period Dividend Discount Model
The value today of a share of stock is the present value of the
expected dividend in Year 1, plus the present value of the
expected price in Year 1.
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One-Period DDM
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Two-Period DDM
• Two-Period Dividend Discount Model
The value today of a share of stock is the present value of the
expected dividends in Years 1 and 2, plus the present value of
the expected price in Year 2.
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Two-Period DDM
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Multi-Period DDM
• Multi-Period Dividend Discount Model
The value today of a share of stock is the present value of the
expected dividends in Years 1 through n, plus the present value
of the expected price in Year n (the terminal value).
(the terminal value)
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Multi-Period DDM
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Multi-Period DDM
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Warm-Up: The General Dividend Discount Model
If we extend the holding period indefinitely, the value of a share of stock
simply becomes the present value of an infinite stream of dividends,
represented by John Burr Williams's original DDM formula:
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The Gordon Growth Model
The Gordon growth model (GGM) assumes that dividends
increase at a constant rate indefinitely.
+•••
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The Gordon Growth Model
The Gordon growth model (GGM) assumes that:
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Example: Calculating value with the Gordon growth model
Example: Calculating the implied growth rate using the
Gordon growth model
(tip) Equity Valuation versus Firm Valuation
Firm Valuation: Value the entire business
Equity valuation: Value just the equity
claim in the business
Source: Aswath Damodaran 13
The Present Value of Growth Opportunities
The value of a firm’s equity has two components:
the value of its assets in place and the value of growth opportunities
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Example: Calculating PVGO
Usefulness of the Gordon Growth Model
The Gordon growth model:
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Limitations of the Gordon Growth Model
There are also some characteristics that limit the applications of
the GGM:
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Limitation of the Gordon Growth Model
Consider a stock with an expected dividend per share next period of $2.50, a cost of
equity of 15%, and an expected growth rate of 5% forever. Then the value of the stock is:
Value = $2.50/(0.15-0.05) = $25. Look at the sensitivity to estimates of the growth rate.
Source: Aswath Damodaran
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Valuation Using the Two-Stage DDM
Example: A Two-Stage DDM
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Valuation Using the Two-Stage DDM
Example: A Two-Stage DDM
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Valuation Using the Two-Stage DDM
The two-stage fixed growth rate model is based on the assumption
that the firm will enjoy an initial period of high growth, followed by
a mature or stable period in which growth will be lower but
sustainable:
(N.B., r is assumed to be the same for both periods.)
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Example: Calculating value with a two-stage DDM
Example: Valuing a non-dividend-paying stock
Example: Valuing a non-dividend-paying stock
