Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report
Project Number: 39500
February 2010
Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: Preparing the Ho Chi
Minh City Metro Rail System Project
(Financed by the Japan Special Fund)
Prepared by
MVA Asia Limited
Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
For Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee (HCMC PC)
Management Authority for Urban Railways (MAUR)
This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and
ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical
assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.
Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Ho Chi Minh City
Urban Mass Transit Line 2 Project
ADB TA 4862-VIE
Tham Luong
Tham Luong Depot
Truong Chinh 1
Cong Hoa
Nguyen Hong Dao
Hoang Van Thu
Pham Van Hai
Le Thi Rieng
Hoa Hung
Dien Bien Phu
Tao Dan
Ben Thanh
Final Report - Revised
February 2009
In Association with
MVA ASIA LIMITED
SYSTRA TDSI South TEDI TRICC Vision Associates
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Final Report - Revised
CONTENTS
1
INTRODUCTION
11
1.1
Background and Scope
1‐1
1.2
Supporting PPIAF Studies
1‐1
1.3
Laws, Decrees, Decisions and Other Documents Supporting the Project
1‐2
1.4
Purpose of the Report
1‐2
1.5
Report Organization
1‐2
1.6
Other Reports
1‐3
2
PROJECT CONTEXT
21
2.1
Local Conditions
2‐1
2.2
Socio‐economic and Demographic Circumstances
2‐2
2.3
Historic Trends in Transport Demand and Supply
2‐3
2.4
Government Policies on Urban and Transport Development
2‐3
3
TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN & PATRONAGE DEMAND FORECASTS
31
3.1
The Approved Transport Plan
3‐1
3.2
Recommended Modifications to the Transport Master plan
3‐2
3.3
Policy Measures and other Requirements
3‐4
3.4
Transport Demand Forecasts
3‐5
4
THE PROPOSED METRO LINE
41
4.1
Project Summary
4‐1
4.2
Design Overview
4‐1
4.3
Rolling Stock
4‐3
4.4
Alignment
4‐3
4.5
Station Locations
4‐8
4.6
Station Design
4‐9
4.7
Depot
5
SERVICE OPERATIONS PLAN
4‐11
51
5.1
Purpose of the Operations Plan
5‐1
5.2
Design Demand
5‐1
5.3
UMRT Line 2 Operational Design
5‐1
6
ESTIMATED CAPITAL & OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE COSTS
61
6.1
General
6‐1
6.2
Capital Cost Estimates
6‐1
6.3
Operating and Maintenance Cost Estimates
6‐5
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFEGUARDS
71
7
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7.1
Land Acquisition and Resettlement
7‐1
7.2
Social Analysis and Poverty Assessment in Resettlement Plan
7‐5
7.3
Environmental Impact Assessment
7‐7
8
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT
81
8.1
Approach
8‐1
8.2
Economic Rationale
8‐1
8.3
Project EIRR Analysis
8‐4
8.4
Summary Financial Analysis
8‐11
8.5
Financing Plan
8‐13
8.6
Fiscal Measures to Optimise Urban Transport
8‐14
9
PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION
91
9.1
Project Approvals
9‐1
9.2
Implementation Schedule
9‐1
9.3
Institutional Arrangement and Capacity Building
9‐4
9.4
Sources of Finance
9‐9
9.5
Risk Identification and Management
9‐12
APPENDICES
A: Financial Analysis
B: Station Descriptions
C: Civil Works, Construction and Engineering Systems
D: Detailed Capital Cost Estimates
E: Operation and Maintenance Organisation and Costs
F: Summary Financial Management Assessment of MAUR
G: Summary of PPIAF Reports and Findings
FIGURES
Figure 2.1-1:
Climatic Conditions ..............................................................................................................2-1
Figure 2.2-1:
Population Estimates (in thousands) for 2007, 2015 and 2025 by Study Area Types .........2-2
Figure 2.2-2:
Projected Employment in 2007, 2015 and 2025 by Study Area Types ................................2-3
Figure 3.1-1
Approved HCMC Transport Master Plan MRT Lines ...........................................................3-1
Figure 3.2-1
“Optimised” HCMC MRT Lines ............................................................................................3-3
Figure 3.4-1
Year 2025 Mode Split (based on policy forecasts)...............................................................3-5
Figure 3.4-2
Year 2015 Mode Split (based on policy forecasts)...............................................................3-6
Figure 3.4-3
Schematic of MRT Lines 2025 Demand Forecast – Master Plan Case ...............................3-6
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Figure 3.4-4
Peak AM Passenger Load in 2025 for Line 2 (complete length) – Master Plan Case..........3-7
Figure 3.4-5
Peak Passenger Load in 2025 for Line 2 Tham Luong to Ben Thanh – Master Plan
Case ....................................................................................................................................3-8
Figure 3.4-6
Ramp-up Effect....................................................................................................................3-9
Figure 3.4-7
Projected Modal Split in 2025 – Trend Case Scenario ......................................................3-10
Figure 4.4-1:
UMRT Line 2 general Location and Alignment ....................................................................4-5
Figure 4.6-1:
Typical Layout of an Underground Station.........................................................................4-10
Figure 4.6-2:
Typical Layout of an Elevated Station................................................................................4-10
Figure 4.7-1:
Tham Luong Depot Conceptual Layout Plan .....................................................................4-12
Figure 5.3-1:
Sketch of Track Layout and Stations ...................................................................................5-1
Figure 9.2-1:
Implementation Schedule ....................................................................................................9-2
Figure 9.3-1:
Project Management Structure ............................................................................................9-4
Figure 9.3-2:
Existing MAUR Organization ...............................................................................................9-5
TABLES
Table 3.2-1
Summary Comparison of Reference Case and the Possible Future Network......................3-4
Table 3.4-1
Ridership Forecast per Line – Master Plan Case 2025 .......................................................3-6
Table 3.4-2
Summary Demand Forecasts for Line 2 – Ben Thanh – Tham Luong.................................3-7
Table 3.4-3
Ramp-up Factors Applied to Demand Projections ...............................................................3-9
Table 4.1-1:
Summary of the Project Engineering Components ..............................................................4-1
Table 4.2-1:
International Examples of Metro Power Supply ...................................................................4-2
Table 4.5-1:
Line 2 Station Location Considerations and Constraints .....................................................4-8
Table 5.3-1:
Frequencies of Service (Time Interval Between trains) at the Various Time Horizons ........5-2
Table 5.3-2:
Rolling Stock Fleet Size Estimation for Line 2 – Ben Thanh – Tham Luong ........................5-3
Table 6.2-1:
Main Quantity of Works Estimates.......................................................................................6-2
Table 6.2-2:
Total Project Capital Cost Estimates (in US$ million) ..........................................................6-3
Table 6.2-3:
Application of VAT ...............................................................................................................6-4
Table 6.3-1:
Cost of Electricity .................................................................................................................6-5
Table 6.3-2:
Annual Operating and Maintenance Cost Estimates (US$ at first quarter 2008 prices).......6-6
Table 7.1-1:
Draft Entitlement Matrix .......................................................................................................7-2
Table 7.1-2:
Cost Estimate to Implement the RP:....................................................................................7-5
Table 7.3-1:
Environmental Management Plan........................................................................................7-9
Table 7.3-2:
Environmental Monitoring Plan ..........................................................................................7-12
Table 8.2-1:
Critical Population Mass and Selection of Preferred Urban Transport Systems ..................8-3
Table 8.2-2:
UMRT2 is one of six Planned Inter-related Metro Lines ......................................................8-4
Table 8.3-1:
Existing, With and Without Project Situation, Daily Person Trips and Modal Split ...............8-5
Table 8.3-2:
Assumptions in Calculating Economic Cost.........................................................................8-6
Table 8.3-3:
Results of the EIRR Analysis, Base Case and Sensitivity Test............................................8-8
Table 8.3-4:
Results of the EIRR Analysis, Base Case and Sensitivity Test..........................................8-10
Table 8.4-1:
Project Investment Plan ($ million) ....................................................................................8-11
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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Final Report - Revised
Table 9.2-1:
Key Agencies and Broad Responsibility for Approvals ........................................................9-3
Table 9.3-1:
Project Components ............................................................................................................9-5
Table 9.3-2:
Comparison of Institutional Options for Metro Operation and Management ........................9-8
ABBREVIATIONS
ADB
AP
CP
CPC
DARD
DCC
DMS
DOC
DOF
DONRE
DPC
DPI
DTUPW
EMA
FS
GOV
HCMC
HOUTRANS
IFI
IOL
JBIC
LURC
MARD
MAUR
MOF
MOLISA
MONRE
MOT
MRT
MVA
NGOs
OCS
PC
PMT
PPC
pphpd
PPIAF
PPTA
PT
SES
TA
TUPWS
UMRT
UMRT2
VND
VRA
Asian Development Bank
Affected Person
Compensation Plan
Commune Peoples’ Committee
Department of Agriculture and Rural Development
District Compensation Committee
Detailed Measurement Survey
Department of Construction
Department of Finance
Department of Natural Resources and Environment
District People’s Committee
Department of Planning and Investment
Department of Transport and Urban Public Works
External Monitoring Agency
Feasibility Study
Government of Viet Nam
Ho Chi Minh City
The Study On Urban Transport Master Plan And Feasibility Study In Ho Chi Minh
Metropolitan Area
International Financial Institution
Inventory of Losses
Japan Bank for International Cooperation
Land Use Rights Certificate
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
Management Authority of Urban Railways (MAUR)
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Assistance
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
Ministry of Transport
Mass rapid Transit
MVA Asia Limited
Non-governmental Organizations
Overhead Catenary System
People’s Committee
Project Management Team
Provincial People’s Committee
Passengers per hour per direction
Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility
Project Preparation Technical Assistance
Public Transport
Socio-Economic Survey
Technical Assistance
Transport and Urban Public Works Services
Urban Mass Rapid Transit
Urban Mass Rapid Transit Line 2
Viet Nam Dong
Viet Nam Railway Administration, Ministry of Transport
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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
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Final Report - Revised
Acknowledgements
This and other PPTA Reports have been produced with the assistance of many people. The Project
Team would like to thank everyone who has given their time in meetings and in the provision of
information.
Thanks go to the People’s Committee of Ho Chi Minh City for its support and strategic guidance. Many
thanks also to Mr. Nguyen Do Luong and his staff at the Management Authority for Urban railways, in
particular Mr Le Hong Ha, Mr Nguyen Van Quoc, and Mrs Tran Thi Anh Nguyet.
This project would not have been possible without the active participation of a wide range of
stakeholders and the Project Team would like to express its thanks for the enthusiastic cooperation
and interest shown by numerous individuals in government agencies, community groups, church
groups and the private sector.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this report are those of the consultant team, unless otherwise indicated. They
are not necessarily the views of the Asian Development Bank or of the Government of Vietnam.
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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
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Final Report - Revised
Chapter 1 - Introduction
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background and Scope
1.
This is the Final Report of a study financed under a Project Preparation Technical Assistance
(PPTA) by the Asian Development Bank (Project Number 4862–VIE).
2.
In January 2007 the Prime Minister approved a Transport Master Plan for Ho Chi Minh City
(HCMC) that includes an urban mass rapid transit (UMRT) system consisting of six lines. The
Government of Viet Nam requested the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide a loan to
implement two interconnected lines, Line 2 – Tham Luong – Ben Thanh and Line 3 – Binh Tan – Ben
Thanh. The PPTA was commissioned in order to clarify the scope and feasibility of the proposed
lines, and to prepare a plan to support project implementation, including institutional and staffing
arrangements, capacity building, financing options, and an implementation program.
3.
The first stage of the PPTA was a review of the UMRT proposals in the master plan.
Following the master plan review the consultants recommended that UMRT Line 1 be extended to the
west and absorb the western section of the UMRT Line 3, from Dai Lo hung Vuong/Nguyen Thi Minh
Khai intersection to Mien Tay bus terminal. This was agreed in principle by ADB and the consultants
were subsequently instructed to focus the remaining components of the PPTA on UMRT Line 2 only.
UMRT Line 1 is currently under detailed design.
4.
The consultants also proposed to extend UMRT Line 2 to the northwest from Tham Luong to
An Soung, about 2.5km, and to southeast from Ben Thanh to the Saigon River on Ham Nghi, about
0.5km. These extensions were agreed but, due to cost constraints, were not ultimately included in the
project designed under this PPTA.
5.
It was also agreed with MAUR and ADB that the consultants should not include the ticketing
system, and Ben Thanh station in the feasibility studies and preliminary designs. It is proposed that
these will be considered under separate projects.
6.
The scope of this project is therefore the construction of about 12 km of metro line, including a
link to the proposed depot. The project includes the construction of 10 stations (not including Ben
Thanh) and the depot. It also includes provision of rolling stock. The project scope and alignment are
described in Chapter 4.
1.2 Supporting PPIAF Studies
7.
To support the work of the PPTA, the ADB mobilized a grant from the Public Private
Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) to develop appropriate short term and longer term
implementation and management arrangements for MRT in the context of wider urban transport,
including options for how best to optimize private sector participation in MRT.
8.
The objectives of the PPIAF technical assistance (TA) included developing (i) a framework for
considering private sector participation in implementation and operation of the Project; (ii) a value-formoney analysis for implementation approaches that involve varying degrees of private sector
participation, (iii) a detailed financial model reflecting the preferred approach and measuring the
performance of the project from the points of view of the government and private sector participants;
and (iv) a stakeholder feedback and a description of necessary institutional and contractual
arrangements given the preferred implementation approach
9.
A summary of the PPIAF work and outputs is provided in Appendix G.
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Final Report - Revised
Chapter 1 - Introduction
1.3 Laws, Decrees, Decisions and Other Documents Supporting
the Project
10.
Key decisions and other documents supporting the project preparation include:
Letter No. 1464/CP-CN dated October 06, 2004 of the Prime Minister of Vietnam ratifying
main contents of the Pre-Feasibility Study of Two Priority Lines of the HCMC Metropolitan
Rail System;
Decision no.1551/QD-UBND dated 10 April 2007 of the city People’s Committee
approving the Technical Assistance Project “Preparing Metro project in Ho Chi Minh City”
funded by the Asian Development Bank.
No.: 2442/QD-UBND dated 04 June 2007 of the of the city People’s Committee approving
the Bidding Plan for Technical Assistance Project “Preparing Metro project in Ho Chi Minh
City” funded by Asian Development Bank.
1.4 Purpose of the Report
11.
This Final Report presents the results of the feasibility studies and preliminary engineering
designs of UMRT Line 2. It has been prepared to assist ADB and HCMC PC in determining the
technical, economical, financial and environmental feasibility of the project. It is also intended to assist
HCMC PC in processing the necessary approval documentation.
1.5 Report Organization
12.
The Final Report is comprised of the following nine chapters:
Chapter 1: Introduction.
Chapter 2: Project Context presents the project’s demographic, social and
environmental conditions, the historic trends in transport demand and supply, and the
recent government policies in urban and transport development.
Chapter 3: Transport Master Plan & Patronage Demand Forecasts summarizes the
current UMRT development plans, the potential future UMRT demand, recommendations
for optimal UMRT network development, and the design parameters of Line 2.
Chapter 4: Propsed Metro Line presents the project’s scope, location, alignment and
rolling stock.
Chapter 5: Service Operations Plan outlines the characteristics of the proposed metro
services on Line 2 including traffic volumes, train capacities, headways etc.
Chapter 6: Capital and Operating and Maintenance Costs sets out the main
components of the costs of constructing the project, and the anticipated operating and
maintenance costs for the system once it is up and running.
Chapter 7: Social and Environmental Safeguards summarizes the land acquisition and
resettlement aspects, the social analysis and poverty assessment, and the initial
environmental examination and monitoring program.
Chapter 8: Economic and Financial Assessment presents the economic analysis, the
financial analysis, and the financing analysis.
Chapter 9: Project Implementation presents the aspects related to the project
implementation, including project approvals, institutional arrangements and capacity
building, sources of finance, and risk identification and management.
13.
There are several Appendices including the civil works, detailed costs, financial and economic
analyses, financial management assessment, and a summary of the PPIAF reports.
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Chapter 1 - Introduction
1.6 Other Reports
14.
This Final Report summarizes the results of studies that have been reported in detail in a
series of other reports and papers, including reports prepared under the PPIAF (see section 1.2
above). These include the following:
PPTA Reports
Alignment Review and Project Concept, August 2007
Mid-Term Report, December 2007
Project Context and MRT Master Plan Report, December 2007
Ridership and Revenue Forecast Study, January 2008
Technical Paper on Bus Services Restructuring, July 2008
Environmental Impact Assessment, November 2008
Resettlement Plan, November 2008
PPIAF Reports
Financial Modelling Working Paper and Model, June 2008
Fares and Ticketing Working Paper, June 2008
Issues and Options for Private Sector Participation and Concession Template Working
Paper, April 2008
Implementation Arrangements: Institutional Options Working Paper, March 2008
Stakeholder Engagement Plan, March 2008
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Chapter 2 – Project Context
2 PROJECT CONTEXT
2.1 Local Conditions
2.1.1
Climate
15.
Ho Chi Minh City is fairly warm and humid year-round, with highest temperatures averaging
29C in May, and lowest at around 26C in December / January. Humidity is fairly constant at around
80%, and there is a distinct wet season between May and October when tropical showers and
thunderstorms are frequent.
Figure 2.1-1:
Climatic Conditions
Rainfall (mm)
Average Temperature oC
16.
Climatic conditions are not well suited to walking more than short distances, particularly during
summer months – and this is confirmed from observations of existing travel characteristics.
Conditions for construction are better in winter, though not impossible during the summer due to the
generally brief and predictable rainfall patterns.
2.1.2
Geology and Hyrdrology
17.
Ho Chi Minh City is situated over a thick accumulation of quaternary loose sediment layers,
overlying layers of stiff clays and dense sands. This results largely from the accumulation of particles
carried and deposited by the Saigon River. It is observed that the constitution of soils in Ho Chi Minh
City varies considerably depending on their vertical and lateral distribution.
18.
Water level is usually 1 m to 3 m below ground level but the level may vary with different
factors like tide. Another aquifer lies in the sandy clay layer 40 m below ground level
19.
Overall the distribution of the geotechnical units along the Line 2 tunnel alignment is well
documented on the first 40m below ground level. However, almost no data is available deeper than
40m bellow ground level and very little data at this depth is available for the elevated section.
Additional boreholes, reaching a depth of more than 50m are needed, in particular at the station
locations, to clarify the position of the boundary between the clay and sand layers, and on the aerial
sections in order to precisely determine the level of foundations of the viaduct. These investigations
were specified early in the FS, but data could not be made available during the timeframe of the study,
and the feasibility study is therefore presented on the basis of the data available.
2.1.3
Topography
20.
Ground levels along the route of the alignment are fairly flat, as is typical of most of the urban
area of Ho Chi Minh City. Levels are generally around +3m to +4m, with a low of +2.2m near Ben
Thanh, and a high of +5.5m.
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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
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Final Report - Revised
Chapter 2 – Project Context
2.2 Socio-economic and Demographic Circumstances
21.
The last national population census in Vietnam was in 1999. For the purposes of the project
estimates of population at base year (2007) and design years (2015, 2025) were made based on the
projection data in the reports from HOUTRANS 1 and from the Study on the Adjustment of HCMC
Master Plan 2 .
22.
In 2007 the estimated population of Ho Chi Minh City was over 6.5 million, growing at around
2.9% per year. In addition, more than 2.5 million people live in the adjoining provinces of Lan An,
Dong Nai and Binh Duong, totalling more than 9 million people in the Study Area. It is forecast that the
Study Area population will reach over 13.8 million by 2025, with 10 million people in HCMC 3 . Most of
the population growth is projected to happen in outer areas (the urban fringe, suburban and other
outlying communities), while the inner core areas are projected either to decrease their populations (in
high density areas) or increase moderately (in medium/low density areas). (See Figure 2.1-1 for a
view of the estimated populations for 2007, 2015 and 2025 in the Study Area.)
Figure 2.2-1:
Types
Population Estimates (in thousands) for 2007, 2015 and 2025 by Study Area
4,500
4,100
4,000
3,500
Key:
3,000
2,900
3,000
2,600
2,500
2,000
3,200
1,300
1,000
2,100
2,000
2007
1,400
500
1,400
2,300
1,500
1,300
2015
2,400
2025
1,500
2,600
0
Inner Core - high Inner Core density
med/low density
Urban Fringe
Suburban
Others
23.
In 2007, HCMC employed more than 3 million people and the Study Area almost 4.2 million
people. By 2025, it is projected that HCMC will employ more than 5.5 million people and the Study
Area more than 7.2 million people. While the employment growth is projected to spread throughout the
Study Area ore evenly, the outer areas are still expected to generate most of the future employment
(See Figure 2.2-2 for a view of the projected employment for 2007, 2015 and 2025 in the Study Area.)
24.
Viet Nam was among the world's fastest-growing economies with GDP growth rates above
7.0% in 2001-2004 and above 8.0% in the last three years. In 2008, The GDP growth forecast for
2008 is around 8.5%. HCMC is the largest city in Viet Nam and the primary centre of economic activity
and, as such, its GDP growth has outpaced the national level growth: between 10% and 12% in 20012004 and more than 12% in 2004-2007. In the prospective future HCMC will continue to be the major
centre of economic activity of the country.
1
The Study On Urban Transport Master Plan And Feasibility Study In Ho Chi Minh Metropolitan Area
(HOUTRANS), JICA, ALMEC, 2004
2
The Study of the Adjustment of HCMC Master Plan up to 2025, Nikken Sekkei, Urban Planning Institute, April
2007
3
For more details on socio-economic conditions the reader is referred technical documents prepared as part of
the PPTA: Project Context and MRT Master Plan Report, December 2007, and HCMC Master Plan Ridership and
Revenue Forecast Study, Final Report, January 2008.
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Figure 2.2-2:
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 2 – Project Context
Projected Employment in 2007, 2015 and 2025 by Study Area Types
2,000
1,800
1,800
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,500
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
800
1,400
600
1,200
1,000
900
400
900
200
800
1,000
700
500
1,200
0
Inner Core - high Inner Core density
med/low density
Urban Fringe
Suburban
Others
Source: Project team
2.3 Historic Trends in Transport Demand and Supply
25.
Since 2003 bus ridership in HCMC has grown steadily. Following the development of the
subsidized public transport network ridership has grown from 130,000 daily in March 2003 (42 lines) to
605,000 in 2006 (110 lines). This has built public awareness and trust in the system. In July 2007, the
weekday ridership was 675,000 passengers.
26.
Despite the recent improvements to the bus system and rapid increases in bus network
patronage, the current share of total motorised trips by public transport is still extremely low for a
major international city, at less than 5%. The vast majority of trips are made by motorcycle. Car and
taxi trips, whilst still a tiny proportion of the total, are increasing fast, and roads are rapidly becoming
congested and dangerous due to the mix of traffic and pedestrians.
27.
In 2007, private vehicles represented an abnormally high proportion (93%) of total journeys
(19.1 million non-pedestrian journeys per day), broken down between motorcycles 78%, cars 1.2%,
and bicycles 14%. Historically, car ownership has been lower than in comparable economies in the
region. With continued growth of the economy expected in the medium term, there is significant
potential for household incomes to rise, enabling many more families to be able to afford to purchase
cars (particularly as on 1 May 2006 the Government again allowed used cars to be imported, a move
that is expected to lead to falls in prices). Between 2004 and 2007, motorcycle ownership in Ho Chi
Minh Province has grown at an annual rate of 8.4% to almost 3.1 million motorcycles. Private car
ownership has increased even faster, at 20.7% per year to more than 200,000 vehicles and total car
numbers (including taxis, other non-private owners) have grown to almost 400.000.
28.
If current trends are not offset by better transport infrastructure and public transport systems,
HCMC will face congestion, road safety, and air pollution difficulties similar to those in other large
Asian cities such as Bangkok, Beijing, Manila, and Jakarta. The goal of HCMC People’s Committee is
to raise the share of public transport to carry 25% of all daily motorized trips by 2010 and 50% by
2020, a sharp increase from mid 2007 levels which were as low as 3% in the study Area.
2.4 Government Policies on Urban and Transport Development
29.
Many relevant recent studies have been carried out concerning urban and transport
development for HCMC. The most significant of the above studies in terms of identifying government
policies and HCMC urban and transport master plan refinement is the “HCMC Transport Development
Planning to 2020” completed in 2006, since this formed the basis for “Decision 101” and the Official
Master Plan which were approved by the Prime Minister. This approved Master Plan targets public
transport mode share of 22-26% by 2010-2015 and 47-50% by 2020, and proposes national,
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Final Report - Revised
Chapter 2 – Project Context
suburban and urban rail networks to achieve this objective. The following chapter describes the
current UMRT development plans derived from the approved Master Plan.
30.
In addition, the approved Master Plan stresses the need for restraint on private vehicle use
due to inability to develop the road network as fast as the rising (unrestrained) demand for private
vehicle use. The report proposes three complementary measures:
To develop the road network according to the principle “integrating road development into
public transport development”: segregated lanes for buses and trams must be planned on
cross-sections of bridges, roads or wide enough median must be reserved for
development of light train, metro.
To develop multi-modal public transport system with wide network; to organize “from-doorto-door” transport in order to create convenience for passengers.
To manage demand; to limit private means in order to support development of public
transport, by means of vehicle ownership restraint (high registration fees); high parking
charges; road pricing charges on trips to central areas.
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Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
3 TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN & PATRONAGE DEMAND
FORECASTS
3.1 The Approved Transport Plan
31.
A Transport Network Master plan for HCMC was approved by the Prime Minister in January
2007. This plan is part of the recommendations for future transport development of the city, which
envisage very high priority for public transport development. Modal share of travel in urban areas by
public transport is targeted to be 40-50% by year 2025, compared with only around 5% today, and
development of an urban rail network is seen as the backbone to achieve this.
32.
The transport plan features a network of urban rail lines as shown on Figure 3.1-1. The urban
rail network comprises 6 Metro rail (MRT) lines with total length of 109km, as well as two monorail
routes, and a tramway.
Figure 3.1-1
Approved HCMC Transport Master Plan MRT Lines
3-1
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
33.
2015:
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
Four priority MRT lines have been identified, and it is planned for these to be implemented by
Line 1: Ben Thanh – Suoi Tien, 19.7km (shown in yellow on the Figure)
Line 2: Tham Luong – Ben Thanh, 12.3km, with planned extension across the river to Thu
Thiem (red)
Line 3: Mien Dong – Phu Lam, 13km, with planned northern extension (dark blue)
Line 4: Nga Sau Go Vap – Khanh Hoi, 11.3km, with planned extensions in both directions
(green).
34.
The other urban rail lines on the master plan are understood to have secondary priority, but
are intended to be in place by 2025:
Line 5 – a northern inner semi-loop line (purple)
Line 6 – a north-south section in the western suburbs (brown)
Southern Monorail – through Districts 7 and 2 along Van Linh Parkway (grey)
Northern Monorail – feeder service to Line 4 (grey)
Tramway – along riverfront south of CBD (black)
35.
Four suburban train operating services are proposed in the master plan, where suburban
trains operate together with long distance trains along existing VNR corridors (shown in light blue on
the Figure), as follows:
Hoa Hung – Bien Hoa – Xuan Loc: 17km (on Trang Bom – Hoa Hung section under North
– South Railway);
Hoa Hung – Phu My: 50km (under HCMC – Vung Tau Railway);
Hoa Hung – Chon Thanh: 81.5km (under HCMC – Loc Ninh Railway);
Hoa Hung – My Tho: 70km (under HCMC – My Tho – Can Tho Railway).
36.
Two further high-speed “LRT” lines are proposed to serve the development of new urban
centres, industrial zones and new international airport, namely:
Tan Thoi Hiep (near north-west corner of proposed Western Ring Railway) to Trang Bang
(just beyond Cu Chi District in Tay Ninh Province). This line would be 33km long, and is
eventually planned to extend further to Moc Bai on the Cambodian border;
Thu Thiem – Nhon Trach – Long Thanh International Airport line is 56km long (serving the
new urban area and airport).
3.2 Recommended Modifications to the Transport Master plan
37.
As with any such plan, the Transport Network Master Plan provides a basis for future
planning, but it must also be regarded as a “fluid” plan which is constantly under review as situations
and policies change and develop. A major objective of the current study was to review the master
plan, aiming to further optimize the network and provide a foundation for more detailed study of the
individual lines. At the same time, it was recognized that the currently approved plan provides a
framework for various agreements between the City and other parties, and as such no fundamental
changes should be proposed in order not to put ongoing projects at risk.
38.
One fundamental issue investigated was the extension of Line 1 in the city centre. It was
generally agreed that terminating the line at Ben Thanh was not optimal from a network point of view,
and various options were investigated for extending Line 1. The preferred option is to extend Line 1
westward onto the current Line 3 alignment. The remaining eastern section of Line 3 would then be
relocated northwards for optimal network coverage, and extended to serve the western suburbs of the
city which are not served by a radial MRT under the current master plan.
3-2
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Figure 3.2-1
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
“Optimised” HCMC MRT Lines
39.
Other revisions suggested for the master plan are summarised below, and the overall
“optimized” MRT network is shown on Figure 3.2-1.
Line 3 would be renamed and realigned as an extension to the southwest of Line 1 (as
above);
A new Line 3 running parallel to the northwest of the former Line 3 and across Line 2;
Extend Line 2 northwards to An Soung bus terminal (about 3.7 km), in order to provide
major interchange with buses and future regional rail;
Realign Line 4 central section to bypass Ben Thanh market and run along the river instead
– this improves station distribution in District 1, and simplifies the interchange station at
Ben Thanh;
Line 5 realigned as an MRT circular line, taking over the proposed southern monorail with
mass transit in view of the expected high patronage;
Extend and connect all lines radially outwards to connect with the future regional railways
services;
Extend the planned tramway northwards to interchange with the new Line 3, and to
improve catchment in the CBD.
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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
40.
Extensive analysis was undertaken of various master plan improvement options using the
transport forecasting models, and details of these tests and results are provided in the relevant
Technical Paper. The alignment and engineering feasibility of the options was also reviewed in
determining the preferred solutions. The indicative estimated changes and benefits of the proposed
modifications to the master plan are summarized in Table 3.2-1 below. As can be seen, the
improvements require an increase in MRT network of 11%, but increase in investment of only 8%, and
yet a revenue increase of 16%.
41.
At the time of writing this report, it is understood that the above recommendations are agreed
by TUPWS, but not as yet incorporated in the official government master plan.
Table 3.2-1
Summary Comparison of Reference Case and the Possible Future Network
3.3 Policy Measures and other Requirements
42.
As noted, the vision of the HCMC transport plan for 2025 is to have 40-50% of all trips using
public transport, with the MRT network providing the backbone of the future transport network. Today
only around 5% of travel is by public transport, and this targeted shift in travel behaviour is a massive
undertaking for the city, which will require many measures in addition to construction of MRT lines.
Some of the key requirements are noted below.
3.3.1
Bus System Development
43.
Even with the full MRT network in place, the target PT usage at 2025 implies over 9 million
daily trips by bus (many of these would be on routes feeding the MRT). This compares with under 1
million today. Thus there is need for massive expansion of the bus system, including network
coverage, fleets, operators, terminals, depots, etc. Furthermore, it is essential that prior to introduction
of MRT, people are in the habit of using public transport, and experience shows that most of the early
year patronage will be people switching to MRT from bus rather than from private vehicles.
44.
Apart from building the MRT lines, development of the bus system and usage may be the
biggest challenge for the city. In addition to the physical capacity and fleet requirements, measures
needed will include:
Improved franchising and tendering procedures
Integrated or common ticketing systems to encourage usage
Introduction of busways and bus priority measures
Public awareness, advertising, etc
Severe restrictions on private vehicle usage (see below)
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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
3.3.2
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
Private Vehicle Demand Management
45.
Improved public transport services will provide the opportunity to impose restraints on private
vehicle usage to encourage use of the public transport services provided. Conversely, deterrent
measures will be needed to “force” people to switch from private to public transport, in order to
achieve the Government policy objectives. But such deterrent measures can only be implemented in
conjunction with the PT enhancements.
46.
Many measures will need to be considered by Government and some examples include:
Since use of public transport involves walking to / from the services, major improvements
to pedestrian circulation are required – clearance of parking from footpaths, safe road
crossings, foot-bridges, weather protected walkways, and strict enforcement to ensure
vehicles give priority to pedestrians.
Make ownership of vehicles more expensive – higher vehicle import taxes, annual
registration fees.
Make usage of vehicles more expensive – significantly increased parking charges, fines
for illegal parking, road pricing.
Make usage of private vehicles less attractive – limit parking provision and availability,
greater proportion of road space devoted to public transport and pedestrians.
3.4 Transport Demand Forecasts
3.4.1
Overview
47.
Transport forecasts for the study were prepared using a state-of-the-art, 4-stage, multi-modal
forecasting model based on the CUBE Voyager software. Model development, calibration, validation,
forecasting assumptions and procedures are documented in the Technical Paper on forecasting.
48.
The model coverage included the whole of the greater HCMC area together with parts of the
adjoining Dong Nai, Binh Duong and Long An provinces. The population of the study area was 9.1
million in 2007, and is projected to reach 13.8 million by 2025. Transport demand forecasts were
prepared for a base year of 2007 (for model validation), and forecasting years of 2015 (opening of
Lines 1-4) and 2025 (completion of MRT master plan). Fares for all lines were assumed to be VND
4,000 per boarding at today’s prices (i.e. adjusted for future years in line with inflation).
49.
In order to reflect the Government policy objectives, forecasting assumptions and inputs for
the models were set accordingly, reflecting the major policy and other measures as noted earlier. On
this basis the model predicts 44% of trips at year 2025 by public transport to, from and within the MRT
network area. Sensitivity tests were carried out to understand the implications on MRT patronage if
these policy targets could not be achieved
3.4.2
Overall Travel Demands
50.
Total transport demand for the study area at year 2025 is forecast to be 35M person trips per
day, and at 2015 it is 24M. Mode share at each year is illustrated in Figures 3.4-1 and 3.4-2 below.
Figure 3.4-1
Year 2025 Mode Split (based on policy forecasts)
Public Transport
Boardings
Total Trips
P ublic
Tra n s po rt
44 %
M o tor cy cle
+ B ic yc le
38 %
C ar
18 %
Ferry
1%
PT long
distance
8%
Rail
21%
Bus
70%
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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Figure 3.4-2
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
Year 2015 Mode Split (based on policy forecasts)
Total Trips
P u b l ic
T r an s p o rt
27 %
Rail
9%
PT long
distance
6%
M o to rc ycle
+ B icy cle
58 %
3.4.3
Ferry
2%
C ar
15%
Bus
83%
MRT Demand Forecasts – Year 2025 (full master plan)
51.
MRT demand forecasts were prepared for both the “approved” and “optimised” MRT network
master plan scenarios. For the purpose of this report full results are presented for the approved plan,
since this represents official policy. Forecasts for Line 2 are checked against the optimised network.
Demand forecasts for each line under the approved master plan scenario are shown in Table 3.4-1
and Figure 3.4-3 below.
Table 3.4-1
Ridership Forecast per Line – Master Plan Case 2025
Line
Stations
1
2
3
4
5
6
Tram
XD2
XD3
14
18
17
14
18
7
22
8
4
Daily
ridership
386,000
594,000
670,000
364,000
352,000
69,000
290,000
60,000
23,000
Peak
Loading
25,300
26,600
21,500
13,200
9,200
2,900
8,100
2,000
1,500
Source: Own estimates
Figure 3.4-3
Schematic of MRT Lines 2025 Demand Forecast – Master Plan Case
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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
52.
The morning peak hour station loadings for Line 2 under the above scenario are shown below.
It can be seen that the terminal station at An Suong acts as a very major transport interchange with
feeder and other buses, and that the busiest alighting stations are in the CBD, with Ben Thanh
(interchange with Lines 1 and 4) being the busiest central station.
Figure 3.4-4
Case
Peak AM Passenger Load in 2025 for Line 2 (complete length) – Master Plan
Line 2 : Peak Passenger Load
30,000
Boarding
Alighting
Forward
Reverse
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
St18-Thu Tiem
St17-Binh Khanh
St16-Binh Khanh
St15-Thu Tiem Riverside
St14-Saigon Riverside
St13-Ben Thanh
St12-Tao Dan
St11-Dien Bien Phu
St10-Ga Saigon
St09
St08
St07-Nga Tu Bay Hien
St06
St05-Ba Queo
St04
St03
St02
St01-An Suong
53.
Under the “optimised” MRT master plan scenario it was found that Line 2 demands would be
slightly less, at 551,000 passengers per day, and peak loading of 24,900 pphpd.
3.4.4
MRT Demand Forecasts – Line 2 “Project Line”
54.
The ultimate master plan includes Line 2 running from An Suong in the northwest, across the
river to terminate at Thu Thiem in the southeast, with a total of 18 stations. This feasibility study
however presents the initial Line 2 “Project Line”, running from Tham Luong in the northwest to Ben
Thanh in the southeast, a total of 11 stations. In order to evaluate the Project Line it is therefore
necessary to consider demand forecasts for the reduced line.
55.
Forecasts for year 2025 were prepared with other assumptions as above, but with the project
line of only 11 stations. Bus networks were restructured to optimise the project line, and thus the end
station Tham Luong would provide the major interchange rather than An Suong with the full Line 2.
Similarly, for 2015 Line 2 was represented with 11 stations, whilst the other Lines 1, 3 and 4 were
included in the network.
56.
The forecast model was utilised to project 2015 and 2025 ridership demands. Beyond the
2025 time horizon it is difficult to predict metro patronage with any confidence. However these are
required for financial analyses and estimates were calculated on the basis of a steady annual growth
from 2025 to 2035 of 3.5%. This is similar to the growth rate used in projections for Line 4 from 2022
to 2037 (3.7%), a figure that reflects HCMC PC’s public transport growth policy. Resulting forecasts
are shown in Table 3.4-2 and Figure 3.4-5 below.
Table 3.4-2
Summary Demand Forecasts for Line 2 – Ben Thanh – Tham Luong
Year
2015
2025
2035(1)
(1)
Daily
Boarding
173,800
481,700
679,500
AM Peak
Load
8,500
21,400
30,200
Considers 2025-2035 annual growth rate of 3.5%.
3-7
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Figure 3.4-5
Plan Case
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
Peak Passenger Load in 2025 for Line 2 Tham Luong to Ben Thanh – Master
Line 2 : Peak Passenger Load
25,000
Boarding
Alighting
Forward
Reverse
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
St13-Ben
Thanh
St12-Tao
Dan
St11-Dien
Bien Phu
St10-Ga
Saigon
St09
St08
St07-Nga Tu
Bay Hien
St06
St05-Ba
Queo
St04
St03
St02
St01-An
Suong
3.4.5
Ultimate Capacity for Line 2
57.
The forecasts above indicate the demand estimates for Line 2 at the key design years, and the
project is designed on this basis for the purpose of this feasibility study. However it is worth noting
that based on the proposed technology with minimum headways reduced to 2 minutes (the minimum
feasible for the proposed system), the Line 2 is capable of providing a higher ultimate capacity. This
ultimate capacity is estimated at between 40,000 and 60,000 pphpd, with the range depending on
assumed passenger crowding of between 5 persons per m2 (normal full loading) to 8 persons per m2
(absolute crush conditions). To achieve this capacity would require improvements to signaling and
access capacity, but demonstrates that the Line will be capable of serving well into the long term
future for the city.
3.4.6
Transport Interchanges and Park’n’Ride
58.
As noted, the demand forecasts have assumed that bus routes will be restructured so that the
buses feed passengers to MRT stations, rather than providing a competing alternative mode. This
implies that there will be high interchange demands between bus and MRT at MRT stations.
59.
Furthermore, it is expected that there will also be high demand for interchange between
private modes (car and in particular motorcycles) at MRT stations, as it may be attractive to many
people to use their motorcycle to ride from their home to the MRT station, and then take the MRT into
the city centre. This will be especially the case if policies are put in place to make motorcycle access
and parking in the city centre prohibitively expensive or restricted (such policies will be essential if the
high PT mode share is to be achieved).
60.
The two main stations requiring bus “public transport interchange” (PTI) will be the end
stations, Tham Luong and Ben Thanh, although it must be noted that Tham Luong may be an interim
end station if the line is later extended to An Suong. At both of these stations it is recommended that
suitably sized PTI’s are planned and constructed integral with the MRT stations and surrounding areas
61.
Demand for motorcycle parking is also expected to be particularly high at the terminal station
(Tham Luong or An Suong), and it is recommended that a motorcycle (and car) “park’n’ride” facility be
planned at this station, again to be fully integrated with the MRT station, PTI and surrounding land
uses. There is expected to also be demand for motorcycle parking at most interim stations, since the
line passes through areas of high residential density. It may not be necessary to provide parking at all
stations, and it is recommended that opportunities are studied in conjunction with station area planning
studies to determine optimal locations and integrated designs for park’n’ride facilities.
3.4.7
Ramp-Up
62.
Experience with other new Metro systems both in Asia and worldwide shows that it usually
takes some time before actual ridership patterns build up to those forecast by the demand models.
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Management Authority for Urban Railways
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
This is due to time taken for people to understand the new system, adjust their travel habits, and may
also be affected by time taken to implement bus restructuring, to develop good station accesses to
nearby buildings, and to implement the complementary policy measures to encourage usage of public
transport. Ramp-up can also be affected by other “external” factors such as political or economic
changes, fuel prices, and even natural disasters. The ramp-up effect and period can be significantly
influenced by advertising and promotional campaigns both in advance of, and upon, opening of the
new Line
63.
Thus the extent of the ramp-up effect depends on many factors, and is very difficult to quantify
precisely. Our estimate for HCMC Line 2 is based on experience in other cities, and in particular in
Bangkok where the first Metro line opened in late 1999. In Bangkok it is estimated that opening year
patronage was some 30-40% below “steady state” estimates, and that it took some 4-5 years for the
effect to dissipate. The ramp-up effect on opening year patronage is illustrated in Figure 3.4-6 below.
Figure 3.4-6
Ramp-up Effect
64.
On the basis of this ramp-up estimate, the economic and financial analyses of the project have
incorporated the ramp-up factors shown in Table 3.4-3 below.
Table 3.4-3
Ramp-up Factors Applied to Demand Projections
Year
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
3.4.8
% of Model Demand Used
60%
85%
92%
97%
100%
Sensitivity Tests
65.
In order to understand the uncertainty and risk in the demand projections, a number of
sensitivity tests were carried out. These are reported in detail in the Technical Paper and key findings
are summarised below.
Trend Forecasts
66.
As noted earlier, the above demand models were adjusted to reflect the Government “policy”
objective of achieving 40-50% PT mode share by 2025. This will entail a massive shift in travel
behaviour and introduction of some very strong transport and policy initiatives. Clearly there is a risk
that this may not happen as quickly or to the extent targeted. Therefore forecasts were developed for
a “trend” scenario – still based on major PT transport improvements and strong policy initiatives, but
with parameter values based on the consultants’ experience of what has been achieved in other cities.
3-9
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project
Management Authority for Urban Railways
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts
67.
This scenario resulted in a much lower PT mode share at 2025 as illustrated in Figure 3.4-7
below. Under this scenario ridership demand for Line 2 (still based on the master plan network) is
estimated at 135,000 in 2015, and 405,000 passengers in 2025. These compare to 174,000 and
594,000 respectively under the master plan policy scenario.
Figure 3.4-7
Projected Modal Split in 2025 – Trend Case Scenario
Public Transport
Boardings
Total Trips
Public
Transport
22%
Motorcycle
+ Bicycle
49%
Rail, 30.7%
Bus, 58.5%
Ferry, 0.4%
Car
29%
PT long
distance,
10.4%
Fare Sensitivity
68.
The fare assumed on Line 2 (and other MRT Lines) in the forecasts above is VND4,000 per
boarding (constant in real terms, ie adjusted for future years in line with inflation). Sensitivity tests
indicated that this fare would be close to optimum for maximising revenues at year 2015, but that by
year 2025 a higher fare of VND6-7,000 would yield higher revenues, as a result of increasing
prosperity and hence willingness to pay for the premium service.
Bus Network and Bus Restructuring
69.
Various tests were carried out on different bus network, speeds, interchange convenience, etc.
The most significant of these was the implication of bus restructuring. In the base case forecasts it is
assumed that bus routes are restructured on introduction of MRT such that there is no significant
competition, and that the bus routes complement rather than compete with the MRT. In effect this
forces PT passengers to use the MRT lines, thus ensuring good usage of MRT and minimising the
need for road-based PT in the city centre.
70.
Experience in other cities has shown that such restructuring does not always happen in
practice. The model tests indicated a major impact on MRT ridership if buses are allowed to compete
freely with MRT, with MRT ridership reduced by 18% overall, and for Line 2 up to 38%.
3-10
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Management Authority for Urban Railways
Final Report - Revised
Chapter 4 – Proposed Metro Line
4 THE PROPOSED METRO LINE
4.1 Project Summary
71.
This chapter describes the proposed metro line, including the alignment, stations and the
rolling stock for which it has been designed. The civil works for the project are described in Appendix
C. Additional analysis can also be found in various working papers submitted during the course of the
PPTA (see section 1.6).
72.
The main engineering components of the proposed project are summarised in Table 4.1.1
below.
Table 4.1-1:
Summary of the Project Engineering Components
Components
Underground line (includes garage at Ben Thanh)
Elevated line
Llink to depot (elevated and at grade)
Underground Stations*
Elevated station
Depot (including workshop)
Repair and maintenance equipment
Signaling system
Trains
9,575 m
1,563 m
1,100 m
9
1
1
1 set
ATC
12 x 3-car units
* Ben Thanh station is not included in the scope of Line 2, or Line 1, as it will be part of another project.
(Ben Thanh Station of Line 1 also not included).
4.2 Design Overview
4.2.1
Design Objectives and Standards
73.
The project has been designed bearing in mind the overarching objective to provide a userfriendly and convenient means of transport that will attract large numbers of passengers and thereby
contribute to achieving the Government’s high public transport usage targets. It is based on the use of
large, high-capacity metro trains.
74.
Design standards are discussed in detail in Appendix C and in Volume 2. For the purposes of
preliminary engineering under this feasibility study a range of international standards have been used.
These will be reviewed and amended if necessary during detailed design.
4.2.2
Type of Train and Power Supply
75.
At the commencement of the project a number of rolling stock specifications were reviewed for
their appropriateness to the HCMC metro system. Projected ridership is quite high by international
standards and consequently Line 2 has been designed for the typical characteristics of a metro train of
a size at the larger end of the scale.
76.
Power is normally supplied to metro systems in one of two ways, either via a conductor rail
alongside the track known as ‘3rd Rail’ (usually 750V), or via an overhead catenary wire system
(usually 1500V or 25kV).
77.
Internationally both systems are widely used. Examples of metro systems using each type are
listed by region, country and city in Table 4.2-1. Both systems have advantages and
disadvantages and these need to be considered in the final selection of the preferred option. Public
4-1