Vietnam freight transport report q3 2012
Bạn đang xem bản rút gọn của tài liệu. Xem và tải ngay bản đầy đủ của tài liệu tại đây (510.72 KB, 49 trang )
Q3 2012
www.businessmonitor.com
VietnaM
freight transport Report
INCLUDES BMI'S FORECASTS
ISSN 1750-5364
Published by Business Monitor International Ltd.
VIETNAM
FREIGHT TRANSPORT
REPORT Q3 2012
INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2016
Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series
Published by: Business Monitor International
Copy deadline: May 2012
Business Monitor International
85 Queen Victoria Street
London
EC4V 4AB
UK
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467
email:
web:
© 2012 Business Monitor International.
All rights reserved.
All information contained in this publication is
copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor
International, and as such no part of this publication
may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in
whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any
means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including
photocopying, recording, taping, or by information
storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the
express written consent of the publisher.
DISCLAIMER
All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of
publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor
International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the
publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind
as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained.
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 2
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
CONTENTS
Executive Summary......................................................................................................................................... 5
SWOT Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Vietnam Freight Transport Industry SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................... 7
Vietnam Political SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Vietnam Economic SWOT ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Industry Trends And Developments ............................................................................................................ 11
Air ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 11
Maritime .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
Rail ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 14
Industry Forecast........................................................................................................................................... 18
Macroeconomic Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Road Freight ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 18
Table: Road Freight, 2009-2016 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Rail Freight.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016 ........................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Air Freight ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016 ............................................................................................................................................................................. 19
Maritime And Inland Waterways ......................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2009-2016 ('000 tonnes) ........................................................................................................................ 20
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2009-2016 ....................................................................................................................................................... 20
Trade.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .............................................................................................................................................. 21
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) ............................................................................................................................................. 22
Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) ............................................................................................................................................. 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook............................................................................................................... 23
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 ......................................................................................................................................... 23
Political Outlook ............................................................................................................................................ 31
Long-Term Political Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Macroeconomic Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 35
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .................................................................................................................................................. 37
Company Profiles .......................................................................................................................................... 38
Vietnam Airlines Cargo ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Vinatrans ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data ........................................................................................ 42
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ........................................................................................................................... 43
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .................................................................................................................. 44
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ........................................................................................................................................... 45
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ................................................................................................................................ 45
BMI Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 46
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......................................................................................................................................................... 46
Transport Industry ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Sources ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 47
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 3
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Executive Summary
Despite the fact that the macroeconomic picture across the globe currently looks bleak for this year Vietnam's main export partners, the US, China and Japan, are all set to suffer slowdowns during 2012 Vietnam's freight transport industry appears to be heading towards a period of sustained healthy growth in
the mid term. The country's nickname of the 'factory of Asia' - a reputation based on the country's
booming exports, which have buoyed the freight sector - still stands, although exports are set to be
adversely affected by the predicted 'hard landing' in China this year, as well as a weak eurozone.
Leading the way in terms of annual growth in 2012 will be the road sector, which is set for 6.97%
growth. Taking second spot by mode will be air freight, with 5.72% growth predicted, while rail freight
will also enjoy healthy growth of 5.29%. Inland waterways will perform well this year, with annual
growth forecast to come in at 5.11%. Meanwhile, the maritime sector will be led by the port of Ho Chi
Minh City, which is expected to see very healthy tonnage throughput rates not only in 2012 but in the mid
term also.
However, we caution that in order for the country to fully realise its potential, there must continue to be
investment in the sector through to the long term, if Vietnam is to ward off the spectre of overcapacity.
The country's existing infrastructure is sadly lacking and needs a considerable financial injection if it is to
fulfil its potential.
Headline Industry Data
2012 rail freight tonnage is set to increase by 5.29% to 8.62mn tonnes.
2012 air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 5.72% to 206,960 tonnes.
Tonnage handled at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City in 2012 is forecast to grow 7.96% in 2012,
whereas tonnage handled at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 3.08%.
2012 road freight tonnage is forecast to grow by 6.97%.
2012 total trade is forecast to rise by 8.45%
Key Industry Trends
Saudia Expands Far East Connections As Middle Eastern Air Freight Sees Fastest 2011 Growth
A new service that has been launched by Saudi Airlines Cargo is indicative of a range of trends
emerging, namely the declining reliance of mainland China on the airport hubs of Hong Kong and
Singapore, and the rapid growth of the Middle Eastern air cargo carriers. The freight wing of Saudi
Airlines, Saudi Airlines Cargo (generally known as Saudia) launched a new dedicated freighter flight
between the European hub of Brussels and the Chinese industrial centre of Guangzhou on March 4.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 5
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Maersk Line And BSNF Announce Asia-US Trade Route
Danish shipper Maersk Line and BSNF Railway, a US subsidiary of Warren Buffett's Berkshire
Hathaway, announced the launch of a sea and rail carrier service connecting the US with Asia in March
2012. The route will carry freight from China via South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam and reach
Chicago, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Memphis and Ohio before anchoring at the Port of Los Angeles.
Cai Mep-Thi Vai Ports Underused, Despite US$7bn Investment
Ports in the Cai Mep-Thi Vai region of the Vietnamese province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau have been
struggling to attract vessels. According to the Vietnam Port Association (VPA), the ports have a total
container handling capacity of as much as 8mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs); however, the actual
demand only comes to around 5mn TEUs. This is despite a total investment of over US$7bn by the end of
2011.
Key Risks To Outlook
The freight industry in Vietnam is no different to its regional peers in that volumes from the Asia Pacific
region are very much reliant on the level of demand from the West in the key markets of the eurozone
and, particularly, the US. With BMI forecasting a recession in the eurozone in 2012, and continued
sluggish growth in the US, consumer confidence in purchasing expensive discretionary items has fallen.
The hard landing expected in China - as one of Vietnam's largest export partners - will also have an
impact on Vietnam.
We see downside risk in the form of the rate hikes being introduced for imports and exports in the
shipping sphere. A report published in March 2012 by VietNamNet Bridge has stressed that 2012 could
prove to be a difficult year for Vietnamese shippers due to oversupply of vessel tonnage.
The report explained that various shipping lines have made their intentions known that they are to up their
rates from the current rate of US$700 per TEU to around US$1,400 per TEU. However, Vietnam Ship
Owners' Association chairman Do Xuan Quynh moved to assuage any fears, saying that the planned rate
hikes would not result in any great change.
Furthermore, any drop off in Chinese demand would have negative connotations for the Vietnamese
shipping and ports sector. If Chinese economic growth slows, as we believe it will, volumes on intra-Asia
routes will be hard hit. Given the fact that the region was flooded with interest from international lines
and terminal operators in the wake of the global economic crisis, this is a cause for concern.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 6
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Freight Transport Industry SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Vietnam's strong domestic growth rate, coupled with its geography: it stretches for
thousands of kilometres on a north-south axis, creating a need for long-distance
freight haulage.
Recovery of the nation's ports in 2010 is expected to continue over the mid-term to
2016.
Vietnam's location on the South China Sea gives the country access to the main interAsian shipping routes, as well as access to the developing land transport links with
ASEAN countries, allowing the country scope to develop its trade logistics.
The generally poor state of the road network. Despite new highway construction, only
13.5% of the network is considered to be in good condition. Just 26% of the network
has two or more lanes and only 29% is tarred.
Traditionally low investment in rail, with the potential for cost-effective bulk rail freight
being underutilised.
Decades of under-investment have left the country with a port infrastructure system
that is poor by international standards. Overcapacity is therefore a growing problem.
The beginnings of local commercial vehicle production, which will help improve the
stock of lorries used by road haulage companies.
Chinese investment could bring about much needed improvements in the rail sector.
Growing international interest in Vietnam as a growth market within the box shipping
sector.
Vietnam risks losing out to neighbouring countries if it is unable to develop its
infrastructure to keep up with the pace of demand.
Vietnam is vulnerable to any slowdown in Chinese investment.
A drop in international demand for exports would negatively affect Vietnam's freight
transport sector.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 7
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Vietnam Political SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
The Communist Party of Vietnam remains committed to market-oriented reforms and
we do not expect major shifts in policy direction over the next five years. The oneparty system is generally conducive to short-term political stability.
Relations with the US have witnessed a marked improvement, and Washington sees
Hanoi as a potential geopolitical ally in South East Asia.
Corruption among government officials poses a major threat to the legitimacy of the
ruling Communist Party.
There is increasing (albeit still limited) public dissatisfaction with the leadership's tight
control over political dissent.
The government recognises the threat corruption poses to its legitimacy, and has
acted to clamp down on graft among party officials.
Vietnam has allowed legislators to become more vocal in criticising government
policies. This is opening up opportunities for more checks and balances within the
one-party system.
Macroeconomic instabilities in 2012 are likely to weigh on public acceptance of the
one-party system, and street demonstrations to protest economic conditions could
develop into a full-on challenge of undemocractic rule.
Although strong domestic control will ensure little change to Vietnam's political scene
in the next few years, over the longer term, the one-party-state will probably be
unsustainable.
Relations with China have deteriorated over recent years due to Beijing's more
assertive stance over disputed islands in the South China Sea and domestic criticism
of a large Chinese investment into a bauxite mining project in the central highlands,
which could potentially cause wide-scale environmental damage.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 8
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Vietnam Economic SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia in recent years, with
GDP growth averaging 7.1% annually between 2000 and 2011.
The economic boom has lifted many Vietnamese out of poverty, with the official
poverty rate in the country falling from 58% in 1993 to 14.0% in 2010.
Vietnam still suffers from substantial trade, current account and fiscal deficits, leaving
the economy vulnerable to global economic uncertainties in 2012. The fiscal deficit is
dominated by substantial spending on social subsidies that could be difficult to
withdraw.
The heavily-managed and weak currency reduces incentives to improve quality of
exports, and also keeps import costs high, contributing to inflationary pressures.
WTO membership has given Vietnam access to both foreign markets and capital,
while making Vietnamese enterprises stronger through increased competition.
The government will in spite of the current macroeconomic woes, continue to move
forward with market reforms, including privatisation of state-owned enterprises, and
liberalising the banking sector.
Urbanisation will continue to be a long-term growth driver. The UN forecasts the urban
population rising from 29% of the population to more than 50% by the early 2040s.
Inflation and deficit concerns have caused some investors to re-assess their hitherto
upbeat view of Vietnam. If the government focuses too much on stimulating growth
and fails to root out inflationary pressure, it risks prolonging macroeconomic instability,
which could lead to a potential crisis.
Prolonged macroeconomic instability could prompt the authorities to put reforms on
hold as they struggle to stabilise the economy.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 9
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Vietnam has a large, skilled and low-cost workforce, that has made the country
attractive to foreign investors.
Vietnam's location - its proximity to China and South East Asia, and its good sea links
- makes it a good base for foreign companies to export to the rest of Asia, and
beyond.
Vietnam's infrastructure is still weak. Roads, railways and ports are inadequate to
cope with the country's economic growth and links with the outside world.
Vietnam remains one of the world's most corrupt countries. According to
Transparency International's 2011 Corruption Perceptions Index, Vietnam ranks 112
out of 183 countries.
Vietnam is increasingly attracting investment from key Asian economies, such as
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. This offers the possibility of the transfer of high-tech
skills and know-how.
Vietnam is pressing ahead with the privatisation of state-owned enterprises and the
liberalisation of the banking sector. This should offer foreign investors new entry
points.
Ongoing trade disputes with the US, and the general threat of American
protectionism, which will remain a concern.
Labour unrest remains a lingering threat. A failure by the authorities to boost skills
levels could leave Vietnam a second-rate economy for an indefinite period.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 10
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Industry Trends And Developments
Air
Saudia Expands Far East Connections As Middle Eastern Air Freight Sees Fastest 2011 Growth
BMI believes that a new service launched by Saudi Airlines Cargo is reflective of a number of trends,
namely the declining reliance of mainland China on the airport hubs of Hong Kong and Singapore, and
the rapid growth of the Middle Eastern air cargo carriers.
Saudi Airlines Cargo, the freight wing of Saudi Airlines, generally known as Saudia, launched a new
dedicated freighter flight between the European hub of Brussels and the Chinese industrial centre of
Guangzhou on March 4. An MD11F freighter aircraft will be deployed on the new service, taking the
total capacity serving the Chinese city - the largest manufacturing base in south China - to 180 tonnes
each week. In addition to the new freighter service, Saudia also offers capacity on Saudi Airlines
passenger services to Guangzhou, taking the total number of services to five each week.
Vikram Vohra, Saudia's regional sales manager for the Far East, said of the launch: 'This new expansion
comes at a fitting time as China's export market fully reopens after Chinese New Year. It will enable
Saudi Cargo to take a leading position from Guangzhou, offering shippers dedicated capacity and access
to its worldwide global network.'
We believe that this is another instance of how the Chinese mainland is becoming increasingly connected
with other regions globally, reducing its reliance on transhipment through Hong Kong and Singapore's
Changi airport. This was covered in detail by BMI recently (see our online service, February 28, 'First
Direct Freighter Service From Chinese Mainland To Africa Reflects Global Trends'), following the
launch of a direct route between Guangzhou and Nairobi by a joint venture between Kenya Airways
Cargo (KQ Cargo) and KLM Cargo. The trend has also been seen in containerised shipping: as the
centres of Chinese production have moved further inland, and mainland China has developed its own
facilities, growth at the ports of Hong Kong and Singapore has slowed.
BMI notes that the Guangzhou service is not the only new Far East service announced by Saudia of late.
The air freight carrier is also to launch a new twice-weekly service linking Vietnam, the Middle East and
Frankfurt on March 25. This is aimed at catching the emerging trade out of Vietnam as Chinese labour
increases in cost and Vietnam develops into an ever more important exporter.
These two new freighter services are yet more instances of aggressive expansion by new Gulf-based
carriers. Other companies from the region growing rapidly include Etihad Crystal Cargo and Qatar
Airways Cargo. Saudia was only established in 2008, but already has 12 dedicated freighters in its fleet
(in addition to offering belly hold capacity on Saudi Airlines' 140 passenger aircraft), and offers services
connecting the Middle East with Europe, Asia and the US.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 11
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
It is companies such as Saudia, and the on-the-ground investment being put into new airport facilities,
that made the Middle East region the fastest-growing in the world in terms of air freight kilometres in
2011, expanding by 8.2% compared to a global decline of 0.6%.
Meanwhile, German freight carrier DHL announced the launch of two new direct flights from Hong
Kong to Vietnam and China, reported transportweekly.com in March. The Hong Kong-Ho Chi Minh City
service shortens the transit time between Vietnam, the US and Europe by two hours. The Hong KongChengdu service will ensure evening pick-up and next-day delivery for shipments to South Western
China.
Maritime
Cai Mep-Thi Vai Ports Underused, Despite US$7bn Investment
A lack of container traffic at the beginning of 2012 poses problems for Vietnam's ports. According to
the Vietnam Port Association (VPA), ports in the province of Ba Ria-Vung Tau have a total container
handling capacity of as much as 8mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs); however, the actual demand
only comes to around 5mn TEUs.
Ports in the Cai Mep-Thi Vai region of Ba Ria-Vung Tau have been failing to attract a significant number
of vessels, despite a total investment of over US$7bn by the end of 2011, according
to transportweekly.com. The region contains several modern container ports and is set to open several
more facilities in 2012 and 2013. Industry analysts attributed the failure to a lack of infrastructure, which
has caused capacity to remain largely underutilised. Only 62.5% of overall port capacity in the province
of Ba Ria-Vung Tau is currently used.
To underline the point, route 956, which connects route 51 with a number of seaports, is yet to be
completed. Discussing the situation, Luong Anh Tuan, deputy director of the provincial department of
transport, said: 'This is because we have failed to finish the site clearance and compensation tasks due to a
capital shortage.'
Meanwhile, in March 2012 it was reported that increases in container shipping fees are creating
difficulties for Vietnamese exporters, according to a report in Vietnam News. Several overseas shipping
lines, including CMA, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk Line, NYK and OOCL, have raised their rates for routes
between Vietnam and a variety of other countries. Exporters are affected because many exports are
charged under cost and freight delivery conditions, meaning that it is the sellers who bear the
transportation costs.
China Issues South China Sea Warning
The Chinese government issued a warning to foreign shipping companies operating in the South China
Sea in April 2012. Tensions rose following an incident which saw the Philippine navy frigate Gregorio
del Pilar involved in a stand-off with two Chinese surveillance vessels after it had intercepted Chinese
fishing vessels traversing the region.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 12
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
The Chinese government subsequently declared that it hoped 'irrelevant parties' would stay out of the
South China Sea in the future. The dispute centres upon lucrative oil and gas reserves located around the
Spratly Islands, an area claimed by a variety of countries including Brunei, China, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.
In other bad news for Vietnam, a Vietnamese container vessel, the Truon Hai Star, reportedly sank off
the south of the country following a collision with a vessel from Thailand in April, according to the
Journal of Commerce. All 16 crew members were rescued and 30 of the 60 containers, most of which
contained vehicles and vehicle parts, were salvaged. It is thought that the vessel itself was worth about
US$2mn.
Rail
Maersk Line And BSNF Announce Asia-US Trade Route
Danish shipper Maersk Line and BSNF Railway, a US subsidiary of Warren Buffett's Berkshire
Hathaway, announced in March the launch of a sea and rail carrier service connecting Asia with the US,
reports DC Velocity. The route will carry freight from China via South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and
Vietnam and reach Chicago, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Memphis and Ohio before anchoring at the
Port of Los Angeles. The pair promised that cargo carried on the Flagship line would reach its delivery
target on schedule 95% of the time.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 13
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Market Overview
Growth Rate Cools In 2012
As of April 12 2012, Vietnam was the most improved sovereign in our ratings league table - up four
points to 58 (D+) - given that the latest print showed real GDP growth slowing to 4.0% year-on-year (y-oy), the worst quarterly outturn since the height of the global recession in Q109. However, slower growth
has been steered by much more sensible monetary and fiscal policies, which have in turn helped to ease
the country's macroeconomic imbalances (such as a persistent trade deficit and double-digit inflation).
State-owned companies remain cash-strapped and awash with bad debt, which may have to be
backstopped by the government. Moreover, as we have seen elsewhere, the recent spike higher in global
oil prices is a concern for the region's energy importers. Vietnam is in the somewhat strange position of
being a large crude oil producer, but major importer of petroleum products, due to the lack of refining
capabilities.
Vietnam To Ride Out The Global Economic Storm
Vietnam Real GDP Growth, 2000-2016 (%)
e/f= BMI estimate/ forecast. Source: Asian Development Bank, General Statistics Office
Economic headwinds that have hit in 2012 in the US and eurozone should continue to act as a dampener
on external demand throughout the year. Also, Vietnam's largest export partner, China, is set to see a
cooling of GDP growth in both 2012 and 2013. This suggests that production activity in the
manufacturing sector and other export-based industries could face difficulties, with a negative effect on
the freight transport industry expected.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 14
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Retail sales have moderated considerably since November 2010, when the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)
initiated its monetary tightening cycle. Retail sales growth slowed from 32.5% in November 2010 to
22.6% in June 2011, indicating that the measures have dampened private consumption growth.
Nonetheless, retail sales remain at double-digit growth rates, indicating that private consumption growth
remains resilient. This supports our view that private consumption would remain resilient on the back of
robust labour market conditions and rising wages in Vietnam, boding well for containerised imports.
However, public spending cuts and a subdued outlook on gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
growth due to high lending rates would lead to continued moderation in domestic demand throughout the
year.
Road Freight Remains The Dominant Force
Road transport is the most advanced in terms of freight sector privatisation and is by far the dominant
mode for freight in Vietnam, with a market share of around 75% of domestic cargo. Few foreign
companies are present in the market, and there are many small, family owned road freight companies
operating informally.
Road Dominates Proceedings
Vietnam Freight Transport Mode Breakdown, 2008 (% of total)
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
Vietnam has a national road network of 180,549 kilometres (km), according to the latest data provided by
the CIA's World Factbook. BMI believes the sector requires substantial investment as the quality of
Vietnam's road infrastructure was judged by the World Economic Forum (WEF) to be very poor, ranking
123rd out of 142 countries surveyed in its Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 15
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Vietnam's railway transport sector has just one operator, the Vietnam Railway Corporation (VRC),
established in April 2003 as a state corporation operating railway transport and related services.
Vietnam's rail network totals 2,632km. The network is of mixed-gauge, comprising 2,105km of 1.000m
gauge and 527km of 1.435m gauge. Railway infrastructure in Vietnam was ranked 101 out of 123 by the
WEF.
Latest data puts the total amount of airports in Vietnam with paved runways at 37, with seven unpaved.
This total, puts the country in a poor 97th place in comparison with other countries.
Vietnam's dense river and canal network provides the country with a highly developed inland waterway
system of 17,702km. This is the second largest sub-sector involved in domestic cargo transport,
accounting for 25-30% of total transport volumes.
Vietnam's seaport network comprises of many small and medium-sized entities, with inefficient
distribution. Most large ports are located on rivers, like Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City, with limited
depth at the entrance. Some ports are located in big cities, thus making it difficult to connect with other
modes of transport for cargo transfer due to traffic congestion.
Room For Improvement Across The Board
Vietnam Transport Infrastructure Rankings
* Rail infrastructure is measured out of 123. Source: World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index
Vietnam's port infrastructure is poor by international standards. The WEF's 2011 Global Competitiveness
Report ranks it 111th out of 142 countries, placing it 12th in the region, just one place ahead of the
Philippines, the regional underperformer.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 16
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Investment And Development Outlook
According to our key infrastructure projects database, there are US$171bn-worth of infrastructure
projects planned, or currently under way, in Vietnam's transport sector. One of the most expensive of
these is a US$3.6bn plan to build the Van Phong International Entrepot. The project will begin with the
construction of two deep water ports in Dam Mon that will be able to accommodate container ships with
tonnage of 9,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and the capacity to handle 0.5mn TEUs per year.
The project is currently suspended, however, due to an ongoing review of geological conditions at the
site.
The air freight sector will undoubtedly benefit from the planned construction work on a new passenger
terminal at Long Thanh international airport. Costing an estimated US$6.7bn, the work would also
incorporate a new runway, providing capacity for 100mn passengers a year. A tender for investment
consultancy work was under development as of December 2011.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 17
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Industry Forecast
Macroeconomic Outlook
Vietnam Will Not Escape Global Headwinds
The real GDP growth rate in Vietnam slowed to 4.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q112 and we may be
looking to revise down our already-weak full-year forecast of 5.8% (also below the government's target of
6.0%) in the coming days. There is some good news on the horizon, however, in that the World Bank has
announced that it will grant a US$522mn loan to Vietnam to develop its urban, energy and forest sectors.
Some of the sectors that will benefit from the funds include the Mekong Delta Region Urban Upgrade
Project, the Second Power Sector Reform Development Policy Operation, and the Forest Sector
Development Project.
The Mekong Delta Region project will utilise the funds to enhance infrastructure and services for
residents in the Mekong delta city of Can Tho as well as those living in the Mekong delta provinces of
My Tho, Dong Thap, Kien Giang, Ca Mau and Tra Vinh. The move demonstrates the continued strong
relationship between the World Bank and Vietnam, according to World Bank Country Director for
Vietnam Victoria Kwakwa.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's two biggest export partners, China and Japan, are expected to encounter differing
growth patterns in 2012. China's rapid growth will cool somewhat to 8.1% in 2012, down from 9.2% in
2011, and this is set to slip again in 2013. Although Japan will avoid the contraction it saw in 2011, it will
still only post 1.8% growth in 2012, which we also forecast will fall in 2013. This will impinge on
Vietnam's freight industry, due to its exposure to these economies.
Road Freight
Table: Road Freight, 2009-2016
2009
Road freight, '000
tonnes
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
494,649.80 563,406.12 599,863.21 641,689.03 688,531.87 738,564.31 789,140.46 846,827.50
- % change y-o-y
8.50
13.90
6.47
6.97
7.30
7.27
6.85
7.31
Road freight, mn
tonnes/km
30,261.40
34,467.73
36,840.47
39,562.62
42,611.29
45,867.56
49,182.10
52,897.32
- % change y-o-y
8.20
13.90
6.88
7.39
7.71
7.64
7.23
7.55
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 18
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Road Freight Continues To Dominate
We are predicting average growth over our forecast period of 7.14%, seeing tonnage reach 846.83mn
tonnes by 2016. For 2012, we expect year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of a slightly slower than the mid-term
average - 6.97%, which is up from an estimated 6.47% in 2011, but down on 2010's double digit growth.
Rail Freight
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016
Rail freight, '000
tonnes
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
8,068.10
7,809.92
8,187.28
8,620.20
9,105.06
9,622.93
10,199.06
10,612.12
-4.87
-3.20
4.83
5.29
5.62
5.69
5.99
4.05
3,805.10
3,717.58
3,893.05
4,094.36
4,319.82
4,560.63
4,799.43
5,120.22
-8.77
-2.30
4.72
5.17
5.51
5.57
5.24
6.68
- % change y-o-y
Rail freight, mn
tonnes/km
- % change y-o-y
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
Rail Recovers
The rail freight sector will perform steadily over the mid term to 2016, putting the four years of
contractions between 2007 and 2010 firmly behind it. In 2012, we expect growth of 5.29% to reach
8.62mn tonnes, with the average annual growth over the forecast period edging just past this figure, at
5.33%, to reach 10.61mn tonnes in 2016.
Air Freight
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016
Air freight, '000 tonnes
- % change y-o-y
Air freight, mn tonnes/km
- % change y-o-y
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
139.60
186.00
195.76
206.96
219.51
232.90
248.23
264.78
6.24
33.24
5.25
5.72
6.06
6.10
6.58
6.67
316.60
492.20
516.23
543.79
574.66
607.63
643.02
686.43
7.10
55.46
4.88
5.34
5.68
5.74
5.82
6.75
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
Growth Steady, But Work To Be Done
Just as is the case with both the road and rail freight sectors, air freight is set to enjoy steady growth rates
over the medium term. We have pencilled in annual average growth of 6.23% over our forecast period,
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 19
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
with tonnage throughput increasing from 206,960 tonnes in 2012 to 264,780 tonnes by the end of 2016. In
2012, BMI forecasts y-o-y growth of 5.72%, up slightly on 2011's 5.25%. The huge double-digit growth
of 2010 will be a thing of the past though.
Maritime And Inland Waterways
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2009-2016 ('000 tonnes)
2009
Port of Ho Chi Minh
City (Saigon New)
- % change y-o-y
Port of Da Nang
- % change y-o-y
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
19,140.00 31,132.00 33,450.71 36,111.78 39,148.54 42,406.25 45,902.18 49,652.56
-5.15
62.65
7.45
7.96
8.41
8.32
8.24
8.17
3,132.00
3,303.04
3,394.27
3,498.97
3,618.45
3,746.62
3,915.76
4,097.21
14.21
5.46
2.76
3.08
3.41
3.54
4.51
4.63
2015f
2016f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Port authorities
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2009-2016
2009
Inland waterway
freight, '000
tonnes
- % change y-o-y
Inland waterway
freight, mn
tonnes/km
- % change y-o-y
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
135,688.40 142,201.44 148,378.09 155,960.44 164,659.38 174,401.76 184,807.51 196,014.15
2.00
4.80
4.34
5.11
5.58
5.92
5.97
6.06
25,365.20
25,593.49
26,752.09
28,084.60
29,568.40
31,159.70
32,622.02
34,541.55
2.00
0.90
4.53
4.98
5.28
5.38
4.69
5.88
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam
The Port of Ho Chi Minh will lead the way in tonnage growth rate terms over the mid term, while also
dwarfing the Port of Da Nang in actual tonnage handled. We are sticking to Q212's tonnage throughput
growth forecast of 7.96%, to reach 36.11mn tonnes. Over the forecast period, we expect to witness an
average annual growth figure of 8.22%, reaching 49.65mn tonnes by the end of 2016. Da Nang port will
see slower growth in 2012 (3.08%) when compared to Ho Chi Minh, but this figure represents a slight
improvement on 2011. Between 2012 and 2016, average y-o-y growth will be 3.83%.
Meanwhile, inland waterways will also enjoy healthy growth of 5.73% over the medium term, coming in
slightly better than our forecast growth of 5.11% for 2012.
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 20
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
Real
2009e
2010e
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
Imports, real growth, % y-o-y
-13.81
22.40
15.32
8.00
6.80
6.50
6.50
6.50
Exports, real growth, % y-o-y
-15.00
24.81
15.00
8.90
8.00
8.00
8.00
8.00
Total trade, real growth, % y-o-y
-14.40
23.61
15.16
8.45
7.40
7.25
7.25
7.25
73.27
90.90
115.19
132.94
151.12
171.73
194.26
219.72
- % change y-o-y
-12.87
24.06
26.71
15.41
13.68
13.64
13.12
13.10
Exports, US$bn
63.63
80.27
101.42
118.02
135.67
156.35
179.36
205.72
- % change y-o-y
-9.57
26.14
26.36
16.37
14.95
15.24
14.71
14.70
Total trade, US$bn
136.91
171.17
216.61
250.96
286.79
328.09
373.61
425.43
- % change y-o-y
-11.37
25.03
26.55
15.86
14.28
14.40
13.88
13.87
Nominal
Imports, US$bn
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, BMI
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2,300.36
2,934.07
3,740.00
4,372.50
5,044.87
5,832.66
6,708.89
7,734.62
-4.78
27.55
27.47
16.91
15.38
15.62
15.02
15.29
2,112.00
2,678.93
3,459.79
4,030.54
4,615.22
5,278.13
6,002.55
6,829.93
-12.61
26.84
29.15
16.50
14.51
14.36
13.72
13.78
Exports
454.57
590.76
763.97
899.90
1,044.40
1,213.71
1,402.02
1,613.96
- % change y-o-y
-17.85
29.96
29.32
17.79
16.06
16.21
15.52
15.12
2,651.69
3,371.43
4,362.78
5,087.37
5,829.65
6,671.25
7,590.94
8,593.95
-6.13
27.14
29.40
16.61
14.59
14.44
13.79
13.21
460.09
604.16
787.39
931.19
1,084.05
1,263.15
1,462.36
1,673.23
11.94
31.31
30.33
18.26
16.42
16.52
15.77
14.42
5,305.13
6,644.99
8,490.47
9,839.37
11,221.17
12,787.89
14,499.96
16,331.78
7.26
25.26
27.77
15.89
14.04
13.96
13.39
12.63
Agricultural raw materials
Imports
- % change y-o-y
Exports
- % change y-o-y
Ores and metals
Imports
- % change y-o-y
Iron and steel
Exports
- % change y-o-y
Imports
- % change y-o-y
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 21
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
2009
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
29,919.67
38,212.34
48,758.49
57,035.10
65,833.57
76,142.41
-8.04
27.72
27.60
16.97
15.43
15.66
47,971.77
59,491.63
75,358.74
86,956.27
-12.02
24.01
26.67
15.39
13.66
13.63
13.11
13.02
13,275.05
16,917.99
21,550.88
25,186.76
29,051.90
33,580.54
38,617.55
44,662.10
-10.51
27.44
27.38
16.87
15.35
15.59
15.00
15.65
11,062.37
14,052.49
18,170.99
21,181.27
24,265.01
27,761.40
31,582.17
36,034.42
-19.90
27.03
29.31
16.57
14.56
14.41
13.76
14.10
2006
2007
Manufactured goods
Exports
- % change y-o-y
Imports
- % change y-o-y
87,608.50 100,625.66
15.06
14.86
98,836.82 112,307.15 127,027.23 143,571.71
Fuel
Exports
- % change y-o-y
Imports
- % change y-o-y
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: UNCTAD, BMI
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
2002
2003
2004
2005
Mainland China
2,158.84
3,138.55
4,595.10
5,899.70
7,391.30 12,710.00 15,652.10 16,441.00
Japan
2,504.65
2,982.06
3,552.60
4,074.10
4,702.10
6,188.90
0.00
7,468.09
Korea
2,279.60
2,625.44
3,359.40
3,594.10
3,908.40
5,340.40
7,066.30
6,976.36
955.24
1,282.19
1,858.60
2,374.10
3,034.40
3,744.20
4,905.60
4,514.07
2,533.49
2,875.82
3,618.40
4,482.30
6,273.90
7,613.70
9,392.50
4,248.36
2008
2009
Thailand
Singapore
2008
2009
Source: IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics
Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
2002
2003
2004
2005
United States
2,453.15
3,939.56
5,024.80
5,924.00
7,845.10 10,104.50 11,868.50 11,355.80
Japan
2,436.96
2,908.60
3,542.10
4,340.30
5,240.10
6,090.00
8,537.90
6,291.81
Mainland China
1,518.33
1,883.12
2,899.10
3,228.10
3,242.80
3,646.10
4,535.70
4,909.03
66.67
74.67
120.20
103.90
155.70
236.90
516.90
2,486.49
1,328.33
1,420.86
1,884.70
2,722.80
3,744.70
3,802.20
4,225.20
2,276.72
Switzerland
Australia
2006
2007
Source: IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 22
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
BMI View: Refined products prices remained at record levels in Q112, with many ticking higher than in
2011. For this reason, we have decided to upwardly revise our forecasts for all fuels prices for 2012 and
beyond. The adjustment is in part a result of the March revision of our benchmark crude forecasts, but it
is also a more fundamental reassessment which addresses the most recent developments in the supply and
demand dynamics in different fuels markets. We have also seized this opportunity to introduce a new set
of forecasts for bunker fuels.
When we last published our Global Oil Products Outlook markets were hoping that crude prices would
fall as Libyan output recovered at a faster rate than expected and problems caused by political disruption
and outages around the world receded. However, supply issues have continued to dominate, with
significant outages persisting in Syria, Yemen and South Sudan. Non-OPEC production also continued to
disappoint in March, with unplanned maintenance in the North Sea and Canada hitting output.
Furthermore, uncertainty with regard to the sanctions imposed on Iran has led to very volatile price
movements.
In light of these developments, we revised our West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent forecasts in
February 2012 before extending this revision to our OPEC basket, Urals and Dubai benchmarks. This has
also prompted a reassessment of our refined products forecasts, which are calculated by estimating the
future spreads between each product and its regional benchmark – WTI for New York, Brent for
Rotterdam and Dubai for Singapore.
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
Brent
80.26
111.05
115.00
110.00
108.00
106.00
102.00
WTI
79.51
95.05
100.00
95.00
98.00
98.00
96.00
Dubai
78.10
106.15
112.00
107.25
105.50
103.50
99.50
Rotterdam
91.32
127.91
133.54
127.98
125.44
122.92
118.41
New York
91.87
128.24
134.32
129.33
125.33
123.33
119.33
Singapore
90.07
125.67
127.00
119.25
116.66
113.88
109.15
Global
91.09
127.27
131.62
125.52
122.48
120.04
115.63
Rotterdam
90.28
125.59
133.00
127.10
124.25
121.43
116.66
New York
90.70
124.72
133.32
124.99
122.99
120.99
116.99
Crude benchmarks
Jet fuel
Gasoil/diesel
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 23
Vietnam Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
2010
2011e
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
Singapore
90.26
126.26
127.25
119.73
116.90
113.99
108.94
Global
90.42
125.52
131.19
123.94
121.38
118.80
114.20
Rotterdam
85.75
114.42
121.57
116.11
113.71
111.33
106.98
New York
89.14
119.30
124.25
117.06
115.06
113.06
109.06
Singapore
88.43
119.91
125.76
119.63
116.65
113.53
108.53
Global
87.77
117.88
123.86
117.60
115.14
112.64
108.19
Rotterdam
81.01
106.07
112.51
108.76
108.50
105.00
101.10
Singapore
78.94
102.46
108.05
105.67
105.83
102.11
98.25
Global
79.97
104.26
110.28
107.22
107.17
103.55
99.67
Rotterdam
70.89
97.27
105.00
101.00
99.90
98.71
95.44
New York
73.64
101.09
109.00
101.46
99.46
97.46
93.46
Singapore
71.97
100.14
108.08
103.73
102.33
100.64
96.93
Global
72.17
99.50
107.36
102.06
100.56
98.94
95.28
Rotterdam
68.46
94.03
101.55
98.07
97.22
95.98
92.95
New York
70.76
97.13
106.00
98.87
96.87
94.87
90.87
Singapore
70.86
98.94
107.09
102.83
101.43
99.74
96.03
Global
70.03
96.70
104.88
99.92
98.50
96.86
93.28
Rotterdam
69.68
95.65
103.28
99.54
98.56
97.35
94.19
New York
72.20
99.11
107.50
100.16
98.16
96.16
92.16
Singapore
71.41
99.54
107.59
103.28
101.88
100.19
96.48
Global
71.10
98.10
106.12
100.99
99.53
97.90
94.28
Gasoline
Naphtha
Bunker fuel 180
Bunker fuel 380
Bunker fuel
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: Bloomberg, BMI
However, rather than a simple adjustment aimed at bringing our fuels forecasts in line with our upstream
expectations, the latest revision addresses the more fundamental aspects of the global and local supply
and demand dynamics that are in play in downstream markets. The broader picture appears to be rather
bleak and we expect both refiners and customers will continue to struggle, as they did in 2011. Record
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 24
