BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO
TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TP.HCM
KHOA NGÂN HÀNG
Khóa 38 ĐHCQ
MÔN: THANH TOÁN QUỐC TẾ
ĐỀ TÀI : PHÂN TÍCH CƠ BẢN VÀ ỨNG DỤNG
TRONG FOREX
STT THÀNH VIÊN LỚP MSSV
1   
2   
3   
4 !"#$%&%  
5 '(  )
6 *  +
7 !"$,-  
8 .$/  0
123$4

BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO
TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TP.HCM
KHOA NGÂN HÀNG
Khóa 38 ĐHCQ
MÔN: THANH TOÁN QUỐC TẾ
ĐỀ TÀI : PHÂN TÍCH CƠ BẢN VÀ ỨNG DỤNG
TRONG FOREX
STT THÀNH VIÊN LỚP MSSV
1   
2   
3   
4 !"#$%&%  
5 '(  )

6 *  +
7 !"$,-  
8 .$/  0
123$4
STT THÀNH VIÊN LỚP NHIỆM VỤ MỨC ĐỘ HOÀN THÀNH
1   45%67$8$9:"2
;7<
4=66!5
4>?@
A
2   45%67$8$9:"2
;7<
4=66!5
47%8$:
A
3   45%67$8$9:"B
;72
47%:(CD!:($6
4EF:;76!5
G7C(!H
A
4 !"#$%&%  45%67$8$9:"B
47%:(CD!:($6
47%8$:
A
5 '(  45%67$8$9:"B
4=66!5
4>?@
A
6 *  45%67$8$9:"I

;7<
4>?@
47%8$:
A
7 !"$,-  45%67$8$9:"I
;7<
4J(K@G'
47%8$:
A
8 .$/  45%67$8$9:"I
;7<
4=66!5
47%8$:
A
ĐÁNH GIÁ MỨC ĐỘ HOÀN THÀNH NHIỆM VỤ
MỤC LỤC
A. PHÂN TÍCH CƠ BẢN TRONG FOREX
1. Khái niệm
L63.G'6!(M(!DN87$,O;/P=6Q@$6='RS=6T
$PQ$S(P$;U$;Q&SVHWS(P6T$P6!(6.8X$1
2. Mục tiêu của phân tích cơ bản trong Forex
L63.G'6!(M(!DNSVQ&HWS(PYWG$=SZXS6$/G[
P$,OP=6Q@$6=8\$Y6]3YPZX3:Z]P@^
@$H(X;76_6!R@$6=ZXX$UX@;W%7PS6$/SXSF
Y(YP1
2'X$`Q$XS/:'$SFY(YP;56T$PQ$S(P$SFNPSGR$$P6!
6.SQ$ZXS6$/6K$X$`Q$X]H(S?]=P=6Q@$6=87%6_YO%K
ZXS6$/6K$%6`Q$X65Ya6PSS=6T$P6.6W=P=6Q@$
6=6K$U@P87%Y=S6$/ZX%515;b]G6@^YW6XSE$6!(6T$P
Q$S(P$?6V87;5%6S6$/7%K(cS6$/@$XY=](c'X$];7

F8K$1
3. Phân loại
1 Phân tích dài hạn
L63.G'H7$KHWX6!,P6$6O;d%e]6e6$36!PGP(
P(]:6fFED12P6$6O;d%e7Ya6PSS="=6PS6$/];7
6g6$=:6H6!5NU6!(H7$K1
Giải thíchhU$;X$6!i87L7!.ZX/@$6=%K66=$U$]
%j$`=6SZXFEDS/$P6$=:'R8US=/@$6=6(7"1$7
SHk!6lZXFEDmSZ87%X(S'(/@$6=6=$U$GR$h
• 2P`=6S;/8\$Y6ZXMn<6PS6!W6$=:S=YO%KZXS
oJ<]6!(@$SoJ<SFND%87S6$/`Q6=SFYpH!!\$
6!(HW6!q(K$Q$;76X6(P`Q6=;7X?S6$/7(6!,6=
$U$?6V6X6=]`XS?'R%KS=PSQ$6P6.%K$ZX
m(K6S@$6=ZX66'P`Q$X@P6!,6=$U$1
• Mn<i6!W6$=:X6$9:;7(;$9NP8b:$P6!SoJ<6e`X(K6
S%XGPoJ<;7P(K$69@P13H]=GPSrD!X;7
S6g$%X;7(oJ<65$P6!ZXoJ<Ya6_]6!(@$$P6!rD$'%
NQ]HsS=6t$PoJ<urD6_123;5;b@$:L6366!g6$/
69`Q6=65@e6VGl`XqH$G$=ZXMn<1

q7S"6;bH:L63H7$K76g87P`S"6]P
L7]q7S".6!K;U$8F;Q8U;7?$=6b6S"6H7$
K1
2 Phân tích ngắn hạn (kinh doanh lướt sóng ngắn)
L63&KHWX6!,PtYQeGQ6D(:$,]P6e6$7SF
8,8eGQ6!(7;76gt6PSS=qS6$/?8$,`X
6!(6g$$X&1
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@$=%8F$bHWX6!,PG$=Sl1
4. Vai trò, lợi ích và hạn chế của phân tích cơ bản trong FOREX

3 Vai trò và lợi ích
− w$-:7S"6?P$56E`P6;/66!g(K$Q$1
− w$-:7S"6HWS(PSF6T$PHWX6!,qG$=S6!,66!g6$/
691
− w$-:NPSP.$S"6]@$H(X1
− w$-:SX!XP`=6S@$H(X@:6g$m$'%6$V!Z$!(@$
H(X1
4 Hạn chế
− 2?`P$/tYQ@$6=;d%e;7PtYQ7?6V@$=q7S"6
%U$HG8s81
− 7S"6tHWX;7(q6e6$6.8X$SVHWS(PNU
@eNPSSF6g$S$V%;7(;76(P666!gF:8x1
− $9t66b:6e6$@e6V$-:7S"6;K!XNU3NP
;5%j$6e6$Ya?%O6PS]'R@PXS=6T$P1
5. Lịch kinh tế - nguồn cung cấp thông tin
5 Khái niệm lịch thông tin kinh tế
@$6=yn((%$2X8DHX!z87G'6e6$PYW@$9;7tGP(@$6=
`X6!'RS=YWG$=SZX66!g(K$Q$1@$6=%e6'P
6e6$@$6=]PYW@$9;7(66"%'R6.SQ$ZX?8,66!g
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8$9HWS(P(@^7;7YQ8$96Wy6O@=6`'XYX@$6e6$SFe
GQz1
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6 Vai trò của lịch kinh tế
@$6=$-:7S"6ZS&%G&6P6e6$@$6=6!(7;7
6!(6"]SVSX!XqHWS(P;/G$=SZX66!g(K$Q$?$!$,;7
66!gP%c66!b?$]:;($=8FS"6[%$'%6$V6Q$SX
!Z$!(;7$X6_8F$b1
7 Những điểm cần lưu ý khi sử dụng lịch kinh tế
2?$/6!XCDG:8@$6=%j$7(c'6"]:EG$=

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− JpH8@$6=h
+ U$SXtCCC1{NY6!DD61(%]@|(NQ$qX6!X]56@X8DHX!
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− $H"-xh
+ I6X8yYQ8$96W}@=6`'@^7zh@=6`'ZX6e6$@$6=;fXe
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+ M(!DXY6y@^;zhHWS(PZX66!g;/@=6`'6e6$@$6=6!U
@$SFeGQ1
+ !D;$($YX!$(!y@^6!Uzh87@=6`'ZX6e6$@$6=SFeGQ8"
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+ B,KP=6Q6!,]-6Xm"8xS=xdXZXPH%
6Xy~z(cP5%76!(6•%:X6y6PSz[%6!U(cYXP
6e6$@$6=1
3H6!,6!XM(!DN{X6(!1(%6!UP6e6$@$6=]6X6g6N6
$9P5%7;U$q%7Y&@PX1k6D(:S`X6!ZXP
6e6$@$6=%7P5Ya?%7Y&@PX%7Sl65:'P(6$?
6"%'R8U€%7X%tq6$?6"%'RR%O6!G5;7%7
;7(6S?87q6$?6"%'R;fX:'$1
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+
B. NHỮNG YẾU TỐ ẢNH HƯỞNG ĐẾN TỶ GIÁ HỐI ĐOÁI
2 Các lý thuyết nền tảng
#$`XYP6G$=SZX6T$PQ$S(P$]6X6![6T$P6!(&KG$=
SX;7%K.!6$/Y(;U$6T$P6!(H7$K1bqL6Q7(Ya

6PS8,YW6XSE$ZX6T$P6!(&K;7qL6Q7(NPSN
UG$=SZX6T$P6!(H7$K1
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− x6=6X$PYO%Xy!XY$(CD!X!$6}z
− x6=6X$P8\$Y6y•6D!DY6•X6DX!$6}••z
− x6=6PL6X6(P`Q6=yBX8XD({X%D6YI::!(X6(nNXD
•X6D4B‚z
1 Lý thuyết ngang giá sức mua
1 Khái niệm
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2 Ngang giá sức mua tuyệt đối
 Quy luật một giá
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6:;7GP8K$7?XS?R66!g?%O$PX(.1#=6`'ZX7;$787
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3 Ngang giá sức mua tương đối
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3 Lý thuyết cán cân thanh toán quốc tế
1 Khái niệm
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2 Nội dung của Cán cân thanh toán quốc tế
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4 Tương quan lãi suất giữa hai đồng tiền
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5 Những dự tính về sự biến động của tỷ giá giao ngay
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6 Những cú sốc về chính trị, kinh tế xã hội, thiên tai
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7 Sự can thiệp của NHTW trên Forex
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9 Sự phản ứng đối với thông tin công bố
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10 Biến động giá vàng
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7. Các yếu tố tác động trong dài hạn
11 Cán cân thương mại và dịch vụ
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:Z;7}"(K$Q$6!,66!g]ND%P=6Q@P@eSE$1#$S?]
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1 Tương quan lạm phát giữa hai đồng tiền
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H;ZX`Q$XS?yH($PS&6z]HsS=N6@„$'%]6fS?(K$69
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• F8K$]@$`Q$X$SX?6T898K%:P66.SQ$6:Y(;U$`Q$X
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2 Giá thế giới của hàng hóa XNK
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• =$P6=$U$ZX7?Xb:@„$'%(c$P6=$U$ZX7?XN6
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3 Mức tăng trưởng thu nhập tương đối giữa hai nước
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• Tác động trực tiếp:#$%O6_6!R6b:6.SQ$ZX%6`Q$X
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4 Thuế quan và hạn ngạch trong nước
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• =%6`Q$X6_%O6=`X(cP:HKKSQ$;U$7b:
@„]87%$'%"(K$69]?6PH87%(6T$P$'%]S$696_
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• =%6`Q$X$'%%O6=`X(cH•GlKKSQ$;U$7b:

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5 Thuế quan và hạn ngạch nước ngoài
• =:3XU(7$6_%O6=`X(cP:HKKSQ$;U$7
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6 Ảnh hưởng của tỷ giá thị trường tự do
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