C3
Economic
risk
Financing
risk
Commercial
risk
Political
risk
Business
environment
risk
Euler Hermes Economic Research
2
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14e 15f
Vietnam
ASEAN
0
5
10
15
20
25
08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Inflation y/y %
Policy rate
3
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Latin America plus Mexico
Mexico
Colombia
Venezuela
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
General gov. gross debt (right
scale)
General gov. net lending (left
scale)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Foreign debt (% GDP, left scale)
Current account (% GDP, right scale)
GDP growth (y/y, 4 qtrs cumulated %)
Sources: IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Venezuela
World
Latin America
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Real domestic credit growth (y/y growth rate)
15 000
16 000
17 000
18 000
19 000
20 000
21 000
22 000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14