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C l i m ate Change:  GL OBAL Risks, Challenges
a n d De ci si ons

This book provides an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to climate change, from
the fundamental science of the climate system to the approaches and actions needed to deal
with the challenge.
This broad synthesis is unique in that the topics dealt with range from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments
and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and
cultural issues constraining the societal response to climate change are also discussed.
As scientific evidence and understanding accumulate, it becomes ever more convincing
that the global climate system is moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within
which human civilisations have developed and thrived. The good news is that many of the
tools and approaches necessary to deal effectively with climate change already exist. The
challenge of the twenty-first century is to integrate these instruments into the development
trajectories of contemporary societies. This book provides a handbook for those who want
to understand and contribute to meeting this challenge.
The book covers a very wide range of disciplines: core biophysical sciences involved
with climate change (geosciences, atmospheric sciences, ocean sciences, and ecology/­
biology) as well as economics, political science, health sciences, institutions and governance, sociology, ethics and philosophy, and engineering. As such it will be invaluable for
a wide range of researchers and professionals wanting a cutting-edge synthesis of climate
change issues, and for advanced student courses on climate change.
The book was written by a team of authors led by Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen
and Diana Liverman. Additional authors are Terry Barker, Frank Jotzo, Daniel M.
Kammen, Rik Leemans, Timothy M. Lenton, Mohan Monasinghe, Balgis Osman-Elasha,
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Nicholas Stern, Coleen Vogel and Ole Wæver.
katherine richardson is Vice-Dean at the Faculty of Science at the University of
Copenhagen and Professor in Biological Oceanography. She has been active both as a

member and chairman of several national and international research committees and advisory bodies including the scientific steering committee of the International GeosphereBiosphere Programme. She is Chairman of the Danish Government’s Commission on
Climate Change Policy. She was also chairman of the Scientific Steering Committee for the
international scientific congress Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions.
The focus of her research is carbon cycling in the ocean and how changing climate conditions influence biodiversity in the ocean and the ability of biological processes in the
ocean to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Richardson has authored over 75 scientific


publications and a large number of popular scientific works, including Our Threatened
Oceans (2009, Haus Publishing; with Stefan Rahmstorf).
will steffen is Executive Director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian
National University (ANU), Canberra, and is also Science Adviser, Department of Climate
Change and Energy Efficiency Australian Government. From 1998 to mid-2004, he served
as Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, based in
Stockholm, Sweden. His research interests span a broad range within the fields of climate
change and Earth System science, with an emphasis on incorporation of human processes
in Earth System modelling and analysis; and on sustainability, climate change and the
Earth System.
Both Will Steffen and Katherine Richardson were authors on the book Global Change
and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure (2004, Springer).
diana liverman holds appointments at the University of Arizona (where she directs
the Institute of the Environment) and Oxford University (working with the Environmental
Change Institute). Her main research interests include climate impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation, and climate policy, especially the role of the developing world and non-state
actors in both mitigation and adaptation. She has written numerous books and articles on
the environment, climate and development and advised government, business and NGOs on
climate issues. Currently she chairs the scientific advisory committee of the International
Global Environmental Change and Food Security Program, co-chairs the US National
Academies panel on Informing America’s Climate Choices and edits the Annual Review of
Environment and Resources.



Climat e C hange : Gl oba l Ris k s ,
Chal l e nge s an d D e c is io n s
Katherine R ic har ds o n
University of Copenhagen, Denmark

W ill Ste ff e n
Australian National University, Canberra

Diana Live r m an
University of Arizona and University of Oxford

and
Terry Barker, Frank Jotzo, Daniel M. Kammen, Rik Leemans, Timothy M. Lenton,
Mohan Munasinghe, Balgis Osman-Elasha, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Nicholas Stern,
Coleen Vogel, Ole Wæver
With contributions to chapters by
Myles R. Allen, Giles Atkinson, Marilyn Averill, Jonathan Bamber, Paul M. Barker, Jørgen Bendtsen, Pam
Berry, Roberto Bertollini, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Edward Blandford, Sarah G. Bonham, Niel H. A. Bowerman,
Maxwell Boykoff, Ronald D. Brunner, Gregory Buckman, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Josep G. Canadell,
Benjamin Cashore, Lynda Chambers, Nakul Chettrin, John A. Church, Kerry H. Cook, Paul Crutzen, Dorthe
Dahl-Jensen, Peter Dann, Simon Dietz, Catia M. Domingues, Harry Dowsett, S. S. Drijfhout, Jeff R. Dunn,
Hallie Eakin, Thomas Elmqvist, Matthew England, Polly Ericksen, Kirsten Findell, Jean-Pierre Gattuso,
Mette Kildegaard Graversen, Nicolas Gruber, Stephen J. Hall, Christian Pilegaard Hansen, Alan M. Haywood,
Kieran P. Helm, Jennifer Helgeson, Cameron Hepburn, Daniel J. Hill, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Larry Horowitz,
John Ingram, Arne Jacobson, Chris D. Jones, Peter Kanowski, Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Lance Kim,
Brigitte Knopf, Niels Elers Koch, Katrine Krogh Andersen, Paul Leadly, Hiram Levy II, Valerie N. Livina,
Jason Lowe, Jens Friis Lund, Daniel J. Lunt, Amanda H. Lynch, Ariel Macaspac Penetrante, Omar Masera,
Constance Mcdermott, Warwick J. McKibbin, Anthony J. McMichael, Anders Melin, Kevin J. Noone, Jørgen E.
Olesen, Jisung Park, Donald Perovich, Per F. Peterson, Jonathan Pickering, Stefan Rahmstorf, V. Ramaswamy,

Michael R. Raupach, Leanne Renwick, Johan Rockström, Dominic Roser, Minik Rosing, Håkon Sælen, Ulrich
Salzmann, Marko Scholze, Thomas Schneider Von Deimling, M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, Frances Seymour,
Eklabya Sharma, Drew Shindell, Pete Smith, David A. Stainforth, Konrad Steffen, Martin Stendel, Hanne
Strager, Carol Turley, Chris Turney, Paul J. Valdes, S. L. Weber, Neil J. White, Susan E. Wijffels, Mark
Williams, Peter J. Wood, Jan Zalasiewicz, Robert J. Zomer


c amb r i dge uni ve r si t y pr e ss
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town,
Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521198363
© Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen and Diana Liverman 2011
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2011
Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data
Richardson, Katherine, 1954Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions / Katherine Richardson,
Will Steffen, Diana Liverman; additional authors, Terry Barker [and ten others];
with contributions to chapters by Myles R. Allen [and many others].
p.  cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-521-19836-3

1.  Climatic changes.  2.  Climatic changes – Government policy. I. Title.
QC903.R48  2011
363.738´74–dc22    2010042731
ISBN 978-0-521-19836-3 Hardback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or
accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in
this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is,
or will remain, accurate or appropriate.


To the memory of climate scientist Steve Schneider (1945–2010),
a committed climate change communicator and important mentor to many
whose work is represented in this book.



Contents

Writing team
Foreword
Preface
List of acronyms and abbreviations

page ix
xv
xvii
xix

Part I  Climatic trends
1Identifying, monitoring and predicting change in the climate system


3

2The oceans and the climate system

30

3Sea-level rise and ice-sheet dynamics

50

4 Carbon cycle trends and vulnerabilities

75

Part II  Defining ‘dangerous climate change’
5The impact of climate change on human societies

101

6Impacts of climate change on the biotic fabric of the planet

134

7Tipping elements: jokers in the pack

163

8Linking science and action: targets, timetables and emission budgets


202

Part III  Equity issues
9The equity challenge and climate policy: responsibilities, vulnerabilities
and inequality in the response to climate change
10A long-term perspective on climate change: values and ethics

229
260

Part IV  Mitigation and adaptation approaches
11Low-carbon energy technologies as mitigation approaches

281

12Economic approaches and instruments

317

vii


viii

Contents

13Geopolitics and governance

344


14Adapting to the unavoidable

388

Part V  Meeting the challenge
15Integrating adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development

415

16Mobilising the population

451

17The human–Earth relationship: past, present and future

472

Index
Colour plate section between pages 298 and 299.

494


Writing team

Professor Katherine Richardson (lead author)
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate
Faculty of Science
University of Copenhagen
Tagensvej 16 DK-2200 Copenhagen

Denmark
Professor Will Steffen (lead author)
ANU Climate Change Institute
Coombs Extension
The Australian National University
Canberra
ACT 0200
Australia
Professor Diana Liverman (lead author)
Institute of the Environment
The University of Arizona
PO Box 210158b
Tucson
Arizona 85721
USA
and
Institute of the Environment
Oxford University
OXI 3QY
UK

ix


x

Writing team

Dr Terry Barker
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research

Department of Land Economy
University of Cambridge
19 Silver Street
Cambridge
CB3 9EP
UK
Dr Frank Jotzo
Research Fellow
Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies
The Australian National University
Coombs Building
Canberra
ACT 0200
Australia
Professor Daniel M. Kammen
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL)
University of California, Berkeley
4152 Etcheverry Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720–1731
USA
Professor Rik Leemans
Environmental Systems Analysis Group
Wageningen University
Droevendaalsesteeg 4
PO Box 47
6700AA WAGENINGEN
The Netherlands
Professor Timothy M. Lenton
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia

Norwich NR4 7TJ
UK
Professor Mohan Munasinghe
Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND)
10/1, De Fonseka Place
Colombo 5
Sri Lanka


Writing team

Dr Balgis Osman-Elasha
Climate Change Unit
Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources
HCENR – Gamaa Street- Khartoum /Sudan
Khartoum, 10488
Sudan
Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
P.O. Box 60 12 03
14412 Potsdam
Germany
Professor Nicholas Stern
Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines
London School of Economics and Political Science
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
UK
Professor Coleen Vogel
School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies

University of the Witwatersrand
1 Jan Smuts Avenue
Private Bag 3 Wits
2050 Johannesburg
South Africa
Professor Ole Wæver
Center for Advanced Security Theory
Department of Political Science
University of Copenhagen
Øster Farimagsgade 5
1353 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Contributors: expert boxes
Myles R. Allen, Oxford University
Giles Atkinson, London School of Economics
Marilyn Averill, University of Colorado at Boulder
Jonathan Bamber, Bristol University
Paul M. Barker, CSIRO
Jørgen Bendtsen, VitusLab Denmark

xi


xii

Writing team

Pam Berry, Oxford University
Roberto Bertollini, World Health Organization
Nathaniel L. Bindoff, University of Tasmania

Edward Blandford, University of California, Berkeley
Sarah G. Bonham, Leeds University
Niel H. A. Bowerman, Oxford University
Maxwell Boykoff, University of Colorado
Ronald D. Brunner, University of Colorado
Gregory Buckman, Australian National University
Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, World Health Organization
Josep G. Canadell, CSIRO
Benjamin Cashore, Yale University
Lynda Chambers, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Nakul Chettrin, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
John A. Church, CSIRO
Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas at Austin
Paul Crutzen, Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie
Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, University of Copenhagen
Peter Dann, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Australia
Simon Dietz, London School of Economics
Catia M. Domingues, CSIRO
Harry Dowsett, U.S. Geological Survey
S. S. Drijfhout, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Jeff R. Dunn, CSIRO
Hallie Eakin, Arizona State University
Thomas Elmqvist, Stockholm University
Matthew England, University of New South Wales
Polly Ericksen, Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi
Kirsten Findell, NOAA
Jean-Pierre Gattuso, l’Observatoire Océanologique de Villefranche-sur-Mer
Mette Kildegaard Graversen, Fødevareøkonomisk Institut
Nicolas Gruber, ETH Zurich
Stephen J. Hall, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research

Christian Pilegaard Hansen, Copenhagen University
Alan M. Haywood, Leeds University
Kieran P. Helm, University of Tasmania
Jennifer Helgeson, London School of Economics
Cameron Hepburn, Oxford University
Daniel J. Hill, British Geological Survey
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Queensland
Larry Horowitz, NOAA
John Ingram, Oxford University


Writing team

xiii

Arne Jacobson, Humboldt State University
Chris D. Jones, Met Office UK
Peter Kanowski, Australian National University
Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Finland Future Research Centre, Turku School of Economics
Lance Kim, University of California, Berkeley
Brigitte Knopf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Niels Elers Koch, University of Copenhagen
Katrine Krogh Andersen, Danish Meterological Institute
Paul Leadly, Université Paris-Sud 11
Hiram Levy II, NOAA
Valerie N. Livina, University of East Anglia
Jason Lowe, Met Office UK
Jens Friis Lund, University of Copenhagen
Daniel J. Lunt, Bristol University
Amanda H. Lynch, Monash University

Ariel Macaspac Penetrante, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Omar Masera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Constance McDermott, Oxford University
Warwick J. McKibbin, Australian National University
Anthony J. McMichael, Australian National University
Anders Melin, Lund University
Kevin J. Noone, ITM Stockholms Universitet
Jørgen E. Olesen, University of Aarhus
Jisung Park, Oxford University
Donald Perovich, US Army Corps of Engineers
Per F. Peterson, University of California, Berkeley
Jonathan Pickering, Australian National University
Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
V. Ramaswamy, NOAA
Michael R. Raupach, CSIRO
Leanne Renwick, Phillip Island Nature Parks
Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute
Dominic Roser, University of Zurich
Minik Rosing, University of Copenhagen
Håkon Sælen, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research
Ulrich Salzmann, British Antarctic Survey
Marko Scholze, Bristol University
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research
M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, NOAA
Frances Seymour, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
Eklabya Sharma, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Drew Shindell, NASA


xiv


Writing team

Pete Smith, University of Aberdeen
David A. Stainforth, London School of Economics
Konrad Steffen, University of Colorado
Martin Stendel, Danish Meterological Institute
Hanne Strager, University of Copenhagen
Carol Turley, Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Chris Turney, University of New Southwales
Paul J. Valdes, Bristol University
S. L. Weber, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Neil J. White, CSIRO
Susan E. Wijffels, CSIRO
Mark Williams, University of Leicester
Peter J. Wood, Australian National University
Jan Zalasiewicz, University of Leicester
Robert J. Zomer, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development


Foreword

An important pinnacle was reached in the journey towards addressing one of the greatest global challenges of our time at the UNFCCC climate change conference (COP15) in
Copenhagen in December 2009.
For the first time since the climate change agenda left the offices of scientists and environmentalists, and moved onto the agendas of heads of governments, world leaders on a
large scale recognised the need to contain the human-induced global warming to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. On the basis of that recognition, world leaders
agreed to take action to meet this challenge.
The path to this recognition was not without obstacles; it was a steep climb, but a climb
inspired and fuelled by the increasing force of the scientific findings mounting and developing. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Fourth
Assessment Report, which gave a thorough and comprehensive review of the science of

climate change. This report played an immensely important role in creating global awareness of the urgency of a global response to climate change. However, scientists produce
new results and publish new findings every day.
It was thus very timely that the International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU)
in March 2009, only nine months before COP15, organised the congress ‘Climate
Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions’. A uniquely wide scope of scientific disciplines focusing on climate change was represented at this congress. The discussions
emphasised the vast knowledge base available regarding climate change, and provided a
forum in which to present and discuss the newest scientific results. The scope of the global
challenge clearly requires the combined efforts of scientific disciplines; natural climate science integrated with the social, political and economic sciences in order to be addressed.
In many areas, new results presented at the congress and in this book have continued
to document trends of climate change, as well as its current and anticipated impacts. The
global community must deal effectively with climate change, both through mitigation and
adaptation. Fortunately, we already have a large variety of tools at hand to do so. This book
provides updated information on the existing tools as well as potential pathways to reach
our climate goals, including that of limiting the human-induced increase in global temperature to a maximum of 2 °C.

xv


xvi

Foreword

Addressing the climate change challenge is not only an issue for natural scientists, engineers and economists. It is a task that cannot be detached from the geopolitical context of
energy and climate security. Contributions on this issue from relevant areas of the social
sciences and humanities are a great asset of this book.
It is important that we now make our utmost effort to retain climate change issues at the
very top of the political agenda. With every year of delayed progress, there is the danger
that societies will continue to invest in outdated technologies.
This book is more than a testimony of just another congress or climate event. It comprises an essential resource in explaining the current scientific understanding of climate
change. The book is underpinned by an unprecedented breadth of scientific disciplines and

expertise and, as such, constitutes a solid source of incentives for politicians and others
who wish to develop a thorough understanding of climate change. It conveys the call for
humankind to take action.
Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Prime Minister of Denmark


Preface

Human activities impact many of the Earth’s natural functions and cycles. Local and
regional impacts of human activity on the planet are easily seen, while global impacts are
not so immediately obvious. Nevertheless, studies in Earth System science carried out in
recent decades have unequivocally demonstrated impacts of human activity that reverberate at the global level.
This recognition has led to the suggestion that we may have moved out of the geological
period referred to as the Holocene – an epoch that covers the past approximately 12 000
years and in which human societies have flourished  – and have now entered a new era,
where human impacts are changing Earth System functioning. The knowledge that human
activities can and do influence planetary functioning implies an obligation to actively monitor and manage the relationship between humans and the planet.
This paradigm shift in the relationship between humans and the planet actually started
with the Montreal Protocol (ratified in 1989), which limits the global emission of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases that lead to a reduction in the ozone layer that surrounds the
Earth and shields it from dangerous ultraviolet radiation. Dealing with human-induced
climate change can be viewed as the next step in this redefinition of the human–Earth
relationship.
Managing the human activities that lead to climate change is more difficult than regulating the emission of CFC gases, as it will require radical changes in the very fabric of
most societies: a change in attitude with respect to energy use as well as changes in global
society’s primary energy source, use of natural resources, methods of food production and
modes of transport. How we as a global society deal with the knowledge that human activities influence the Earth’s climate system can be viewed as a harbinger for our species’
future relationship with the planet.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in four reports, systematically assessed and presented the evolving scientific understanding of human-induced
climate change. Especially the latest of the reports (from 2007) has been instrumental in

increasing public and political awareness concerning climate change. Thanks to extensive
research activities across the globe, the scientific understanding of climate change has continued to advance since the last IPCC assessment.

xvii


xviii

Preface

This book summarises the highlights of this new research and provides an up-to-date
overview of the current state of scientific understanding of climate change, its known and
projected impacts, and the options we have available for responding to the challenges it
presents. While not being a complete report of the proceedings, this book is developed from
presentations and discussions that took place at the open scientific congress, CLIMATE
CHANGE:  Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen,
10–12 March 2009, and organised by the International Alliance of Research Universities.1
Although the presentations made at the congress were not peer reviewed, they are sometimes used as examples in the book to illustrate more generic points being made. In addition to drawing upon contributions to the congress, the book draws upon peer-reviewed
papers that have appeared in the scientific literature in recent years and subsequent to the
congress. The book has been written by a team of authors led by Katherine Richardson,
Will Steffen, and Diana Liverman. Each author has contributed to the sections of the book
where he/she has expertise.
 Australian National University, ETH Zürich, National University of Singapore, Peking University, University of California –
Berkeley, University of Cambridge, University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford, The University of Tokyo, Yale University.
For further information, please visit .

1


Acronyms and abbreviations


ACF
autocorrelation function
AIDS
acquired immunodeficiency syndrome
AIMAction Impact Matrix
AR4IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
AR5IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
ASEAmundsen Sea Embayment
AWGAd hoc Working Group
C
carbon
CAFE
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
CCS
carbon capture and storage
CDM
Clean Development Mechanism
CDR
carbon dioxide removal
CER
certified emission reduction
CFC
chlorofluorocarbon
CGIAR
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
CH4
methane
CHP
combined heat and power

CO2
carbon dioxide
CO2-e
carbon dioxide equivalent
COP15
15th Conference of the Parties
CRU
Climate Research Unit
CWC
cumulative warming commitment
DALY
disability-adjusted life-years
DFA
detrended fluctuation analysis
DNA
deoxyribonucleic acid
EAISEast Antarctic Ice Sheet
EBAMMEnergy Resources Group Biofuel Meta-Analysis Model
EE
energy efficiency
EEP
eastern equatorial Pacific
EETSEuropean Emissions Trading System

xix


xx

Acronyms and abbreviations


EMICEarth System Model of Intermediate Complexity
ENGO
environmental non-governmental organisations
ENSOEl Niño Southern Oscillation
EPAEnvironmental Protection Agency
ESSPEarth System Science Partnership
EUEuropean Union
FAO
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
FIT
feed-in tariff
GATTGeneral Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
GCMGeneral Circulation Model; in non-technical discussions, often replaced by
Global Climate Model
GDP
gross domestic product
GECAFSGlobal Environmental Change and Food Systems
GFC
global financial crisis
GHG
greenhouse gas
GISGreenland Ice Sheet
Gl
gigalitres
Gt
gigatonne
GWI
global warming intensity
HIV

human immunodeficiency virus
HKHHindu Kush–Himalaya
HKHTHindu Kush–Himalaya–Tibetan
HVAC
heating, ventilation and cooling
IARUInternational Alliance of Research Universities
ICU
initial condition uncertainty
IMFInternational Monetary Fund
IODIndian Ocean Dipole
IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IR
infrared
ISAIntegrated Sustainability Assessment
ISMIndian Summer Monsoon
K
kelvin
kWe
kilowatts of electric power
LED
light-emitting diode
LPJLund-Potsdam-Jena (dynamic global vegetation model)
MEFMajor Economies Forum
MT
megatonnes
MW
megawatt
MWe
megawatts of electric power
NADWNorth Atlantic deep water

NAMA
nationally appropriate mitigation action
NAONorth Atlantic Oscillation


Acronyms and abbreviations

NAPANational Adaptation Programmes of Action
NATONorth Atlantic Treaty Organization
NBERNational Bureau of Economic Research
NGO
non-governmental organisation
NOx
nitrogen oxide
NRDCNatural Resources Defense Council
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OEED
Office of Economic Employment and Development
OPEC
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
PACE
Property Assessed Clean Energy
PACJA
Pan African Climate Justice Alliance
P–E
precipitation–evaporation
PEAC
Pacific ENSO Applications Center
PETM

Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
p.p.m.
parts per million
PTC
production tax credit
R&D
research and development
RE
renewable energy
REDD
Reducing Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation
RPS
Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards
SAMSouthern Annular Mode
SOx
sulphur oxide
SRM
solar radiation management
SST
sea surface temperature
SWNASouthwest North America
THC
thermohaline circulation
UCDP
Uppsala Conflict Dataset Program
UEA
University of East Anglia
UN
United Nations
UNDP

United Nations Development Programme
UNEP
United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UK
United Kingdom
USA
United States of America
VA
vulnerability areas
VMT
vehicle miles travelled
WAIS
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
WAM
West African Monsoon
WTO
World Trade Organization
WWF
World Wildlife Fund
XBT
eXpendable BathyThermographs

xxi



Part I
Climatic trends


For many key parameters, the climate system is moving beyond the patterns of natural
­variability within which civilisations have developed and thrived…